This weekend, I started working on my pilot and I contemplated map reduce vs hive. Since my background includes extensive SQL use, I opted to give hive a try. I loaded 100 log files from our ETL server into hdfs, loaded them using hive, and began running queries to process the data, looking for the longest operation in our transformation operations. While I'll probably need MR for better text parsing, hive is very cool for high level processing.
Next week, I'll discuss installing hadoop on a linux server for a pilot.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
met with EU team ....
This week I met with the consultant and the EU team to learn about their app and possible uses for Hadoop. I also met with our infrastructure team about installing CDH on a single node Linux server in pseudo-distributed mode for an application idea I have.
The EU team is very excited and thinks they have a use case for the platform. I'm not sure if I'll have the opportunity to participate or if the project will get funded, but I do think I'll get to "show off" Hadoop with my smaller app. I'll update the blog in early April after I meet again with the infrastructure team.
The EU team is very excited and thinks they have a use case for the platform. I'm not sure if I'll have the opportunity to participate or if the project will get funded, but I do think I'll get to "show off" Hadoop with my smaller app. I'll update the blog in early April after I meet again with the infrastructure team.
Saturday, March 03, 2012
Stranger in a strange land .....
I'm starting a new series on my experiences with the Hadoop stack. I attended training and passed the developer cert test in February. The technology is very cool and could potentially extend this gen-X person's IT career by a few years.
My background is RDBMS and various programming languages. I'm not going to write about what Hadoop is, there are already plenty of articles about that. This will be my experiences in trying to learn and stand-up an environment and complete a project with business value.
In our DW, we're starting to collect a large amount of text data from various SAP tables. I'm not sure if any of it is used currently, but this looks like a good place to start. I'll see if I can carve out some space and cycles on one of our servers and create a pseudo-distributed environment.
My background is RDBMS and various programming languages. I'm not going to write about what Hadoop is, there are already plenty of articles about that. This will be my experiences in trying to learn and stand-up an environment and complete a project with business value.
In our DW, we're starting to collect a large amount of text data from various SAP tables. I'm not sure if any of it is used currently, but this looks like a good place to start. I'll see if I can carve out some space and cycles on one of our servers and create a pseudo-distributed environment.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
What a start....
Where we're at:
Dow 12,801.23
s&p: 1,342.64
10yr: 1.97
s&p P/E: 22.43
vix: 20.79
equity: 31
bond: 33
cash: 36
1 yr: 2.9%
The market has gone (almost) straight up, probably because the mood is improving in the US and there is optimism that a Greece "kick-the-can" decision is coming. But, the nasty Greeks decided to take the market down a bit on 2/9. TXT reported a small loss due to one-time items for 2011, but guided higher for 2012, so the stock has gone straight up. I rang the register in early January to get below my 10% mark, but I'll probably be selling more before spring if it continues to rise.
Work has been crazy, unfortunately, all support. But, it looks like my training class will happen (surprise). Peer continues to suffer through his neck and back problems, he makes me hurt when I watch him get up and move around. I don't how he'll work to 65. We submitted our goals for the year, hopefully we'll get to work on the stuff we have planned. It seems like people are all of a sudden using the warehouse reports more than they used to, not sure why. We have had a lot of support because of incorrect results and we have shot ourselves in the foot twice during major process runs.
The mood seems to be positive, so far. Projects are being planned and I see and hear contract labor moving in and doing work. So, I'm optimistic for 2012, but we'll see what happens later this spring.
Dow 12,801.23
s&p: 1,342.64
10yr: 1.97
s&p P/E: 22.43
vix: 20.79
equity: 31
bond: 33
cash: 36
1 yr: 2.9%
The market has gone (almost) straight up, probably because the mood is improving in the US and there is optimism that a Greece "kick-the-can" decision is coming. But, the nasty Greeks decided to take the market down a bit on 2/9. TXT reported a small loss due to one-time items for 2011, but guided higher for 2012, so the stock has gone straight up. I rang the register in early January to get below my 10% mark, but I'll probably be selling more before spring if it continues to rise.
Work has been crazy, unfortunately, all support. But, it looks like my training class will happen (surprise). Peer continues to suffer through his neck and back problems, he makes me hurt when I watch him get up and move around. I don't how he'll work to 65. We submitted our goals for the year, hopefully we'll get to work on the stuff we have planned. It seems like people are all of a sudden using the warehouse reports more than they used to, not sure why. We have had a lot of support because of incorrect results and we have shot ourselves in the foot twice during major process runs.
The mood seems to be positive, so far. Projects are being planned and I see and hear contract labor moving in and doing work. So, I'm optimistic for 2012, but we'll see what happens later this spring.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
January 2012....
Where we're at:
DJIA: 12422.06
s&p: 1289.09
10 yr: 1.853
s&p P/E: 21.21
VIX: 20.91
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1 yr: 0.91%
The market made a bit of a comeback this week (dow up ~60 points). The s&p is staying above its moving average (~1250). I've done some trades lately, TXT at 19.10 and JNK at 38.60. JNK to exchange into V high yld corp. TXT because I was approaching 10% in 401k. This week TXT made a move on rumors the company may explore spinning off businesses to increase value. Who knows, there may be a comment during the January call. Goals for this year include: decreasing cash in spouse's IRA. max out HSA, increase 401k contributions, and staying employed (as usual).
Work is starting off ok, spouse's company's acquisition to LOGM closed this week. I think she'll be fine for the next year or two. CSNA will continue to muddle along, hopefully we'll deliver enough planes to keep employment stable. I'm still optimistic this will be a good year for me, but we'll see. 4 months to go.....
DJIA: 12422.06
s&p: 1289.09
10 yr: 1.853
s&p P/E: 21.21
VIX: 20.91
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1 yr: 0.91%
The market made a bit of a comeback this week (dow up ~60 points). The s&p is staying above its moving average (~1250). I've done some trades lately, TXT at 19.10 and JNK at 38.60. JNK to exchange into V high yld corp. TXT because I was approaching 10% in 401k. This week TXT made a move on rumors the company may explore spinning off businesses to increase value. Who knows, there may be a comment during the January call. Goals for this year include: decreasing cash in spouse's IRA. max out HSA, increase 401k contributions, and staying employed (as usual).
Work is starting off ok, spouse's company's acquisition to LOGM closed this week. I think she'll be fine for the next year or two. CSNA will continue to muddle along, hopefully we'll deliver enough planes to keep employment stable. I'm still optimistic this will be a good year for me, but we'll see. 4 months to go.....
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Goodbye 2011....
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,217.56
S&P 500 1,257.60
10-Yr T-Note 1.87%
s&p P/E: 21.04
VIX: 23.40
equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36
1 year: 1.27%
Well, another year of the great recession complete. Spouse and myself remain employed. She had a great year, best for her in awhile. TXT (and CSNA) muddle through, December should have been ok. I managed to beat both my benchmark (-2.1) and the S&P (flat) in 2011.
What worked: TIPS, REITs, tax exempt bonds, high yield bonds, in other words, bonds.
What missed: non-US equities and TXT. Oh well, maybe next year.
No matter what the pundits say, everyone should own some bonds and (yes) some dividend paying stocks. I'm sure the experts will be shorting bonds (of all sorts) in 2012. Luckily, we bought most of ours in the early part of the decade. About the only thing I'd like to buy next year is some GLD, I tried in December but it went above my price.
Next year:
1. Continue my data mining and big data "homework" and position myself for a project role.
2. Make it to May and get vested.
3. Buy some GLD.
4. Look around if the market improves.
Home: Remodel the main bathroom, finally. Regardless of employment situation and the economy.
As for the national presidential election, if the repubs nominate anyone but Romney, I'm voting for the President.
DJIA 12,217.56
S&P 500 1,257.60
10-Yr T-Note 1.87%
s&p P/E: 21.04
VIX: 23.40
equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36
1 year: 1.27%
Well, another year of the great recession complete. Spouse and myself remain employed. She had a great year, best for her in awhile. TXT (and CSNA) muddle through, December should have been ok. I managed to beat both my benchmark (-2.1) and the S&P (flat) in 2011.
What worked: TIPS, REITs, tax exempt bonds, high yield bonds, in other words, bonds.
What missed: non-US equities and TXT. Oh well, maybe next year.
No matter what the pundits say, everyone should own some bonds and (yes) some dividend paying stocks. I'm sure the experts will be shorting bonds (of all sorts) in 2012. Luckily, we bought most of ours in the early part of the decade. About the only thing I'd like to buy next year is some GLD, I tried in December but it went above my price.
Next year:
1. Continue my data mining and big data "homework" and position myself for a project role.
2. Make it to May and get vested.
3. Buy some GLD.
4. Look around if the market improves.
Home: Remodel the main bathroom, finally. Regardless of employment situation and the economy.
As for the national presidential election, if the repubs nominate anyone but Romney, I'm voting for the President.
Saturday, December 03, 2011
No IT layoffs in 2011....
Where we're at:
Dow: 12019.42
s&p: 1244.28
10yr: 2.04%
s&p P/E: 20.82
VIX: 27.52
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr: 5.10%
After a rough start, November recovered a bit during the last week. The US economy does not appear to be failing off a cliff, but Europe is "toying" with the world markets. Apparently Europe was closer to a Lehman event than previously thought, evidenced by the world central bank announcement on Wednesday. I'm still not sure how December will play out, but I'll be happy to collect my yearly dividends and wish this year goodbye (or good buy).
For the first time in 3 years, no IT layoffs. I think we've had enough voluntary turnover to keep our FTE count under control. Management seems to think that we have the right staff for 2012 as well. Our new director has some interesting work planned for 2012, I hope it pans out. I'm due to vest in May, we'll see how the job market looks next summer.
Dow: 12019.42
s&p: 1244.28
10yr: 2.04%
s&p P/E: 20.82
VIX: 27.52
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr: 5.10%
After a rough start, November recovered a bit during the last week. The US economy does not appear to be failing off a cliff, but Europe is "toying" with the world markets. Apparently Europe was closer to a Lehman event than previously thought, evidenced by the world central bank announcement on Wednesday. I'm still not sure how December will play out, but I'll be happy to collect my yearly dividends and wish this year goodbye (or good buy).
For the first time in 3 years, no IT layoffs. I think we've had enough voluntary turnover to keep our FTE count under control. Management seems to think that we have the right staff for 2012 as well. Our new director has some interesting work planned for 2012, I hope it pans out. I'm due to vest in May, we'll see how the job market looks next summer.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
European roller coaster....
Where we're at:
Dow: 11796.16
s&p: 1215.65
10yr: 2.01
s&p P/E: 20.34
VIX: 32
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 3%
The Europeans seem bent on knocking down the world economy and thumbing their respective noses at the rest of the world. So, we have another weekend of wondering what will occur Sunday night. I continue to 'dribble' money into JNK and our target funds. The world goes on and we're not getting any younger.
The company continues to leak people and not replace them. Our department attrition appears to have stopped, probably for this year. But, I predict that we'll lose more people next year, especially if IT continues to perk up. Our new director is saying the right things going into the new year, we'll have to see if his ideas happen and we get a chance to work on them. Our lead continues to micro design everything, hopefully we can break that cycle some next year. Rumor is we're doing ok this quarter.
Dow: 11796.16
s&p: 1215.65
10yr: 2.01
s&p P/E: 20.34
VIX: 32
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 3%
The Europeans seem bent on knocking down the world economy and thumbing their respective noses at the rest of the world. So, we have another weekend of wondering what will occur Sunday night. I continue to 'dribble' money into JNK and our target funds. The world goes on and we're not getting any younger.
The company continues to leak people and not replace them. Our department attrition appears to have stopped, probably for this year. But, I predict that we'll lose more people next year, especially if IT continues to perk up. Our new director is saying the right things going into the new year, we'll have to see if his ideas happen and we get a chance to work on them. Our lead continues to micro design everything, hopefully we can break that cycle some next year. Rumor is we're doing ok this quarter.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
good quarter...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,808.79
S&P 500 1,238.25
10-Yr T-Note 2.20%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 31.32
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1yr: 0.9%
After 5 straight down months, October seems primed to finish up. However, it depends on what happens in Europe this upcoming week. I think Germany and France are screwing around because they know they can. I added to JNK through the month and was rewarded for it. Like the 7.5% yield, next up MLP, but still researching options. Still trying to move the needle 1% to the right.
TXT reported on 10/19, with a surprise (.45 vs .31). Still the analysts aren't going to be head faked, S&P and Citi peg the 52 week high at $21. The call was less about the macro conditions and more about how each business is doing, good to hear. Peer and lead are out this upcoming week so I'm on my own, including no offshore support on 10/26 due to a holiday. The new director seems better than we thought, I like him so far. I should be out of the woods for 2011, but still holding my breath for 2012. We'll see. The tone around the shop is more about how understaffed we are, please. I think we may be right-sized finally.
DJIA 11,808.79
S&P 500 1,238.25
10-Yr T-Note 2.20%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 31.32
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1yr: 0.9%
After 5 straight down months, October seems primed to finish up. However, it depends on what happens in Europe this upcoming week. I think Germany and France are screwing around because they know they can. I added to JNK through the month and was rewarded for it. Like the 7.5% yield, next up MLP, but still researching options. Still trying to move the needle 1% to the right.
TXT reported on 10/19, with a surprise (.45 vs .31). Still the analysts aren't going to be head faked, S&P and Citi peg the 52 week high at $21. The call was less about the macro conditions and more about how each business is doing, good to hear. Peer and lead are out this upcoming week so I'm on my own, including no offshore support on 10/26 due to a holiday. The new director seems better than we thought, I like him so far. I should be out of the woods for 2011, but still holding my breath for 2012. We'll see. The tone around the shop is more about how understaffed we are, please. I think we may be right-sized finally.
Saturday, October 01, 2011
Glad that quarter is over....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,913.38
S&P 500 1,131.42
10-Yr T-Note 1.92%
s&p P/E: 19.45
VIX: 42.96
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
1 yr: -1.83%
Wow, the whole market goes as Europe is going. Up, down, up, down. It seems like commodities have joined the party, gold included. Oil is going down, probably because of weaker forecasted demand (and economic growth). I bought some last month, to begin moving out of cash and bonds. I am going to build a JNK position to "move the needle". Also, moving spouse's IRA cash position to some equity and REIT (love REITS). Goal is to squeeze out another 1%.
Work is stable, new director seems ok to work for, so far. The TXT call will be on 10/19, that and NBAA will drive morale for the remaining part of the year. Still no negative workforce rumors and project work is continuing. Peer leaves for medical leave on 10/10, so I'll be solo for awhile.
DJIA 10,913.38
S&P 500 1,131.42
10-Yr T-Note 1.92%
s&p P/E: 19.45
VIX: 42.96
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
1 yr: -1.83%
Wow, the whole market goes as Europe is going. Up, down, up, down. It seems like commodities have joined the party, gold included. Oil is going down, probably because of weaker forecasted demand (and economic growth). I bought some last month, to begin moving out of cash and bonds. I am going to build a JNK position to "move the needle". Also, moving spouse's IRA cash position to some equity and REIT (love REITS). Goal is to squeeze out another 1%.
Work is stable, new director seems ok to work for, so far. The TXT call will be on 10/19, that and NBAA will drive morale for the remaining part of the year. Still no negative workforce rumors and project work is continuing. Peer leaves for medical leave on 10/10, so I'll be solo for awhile.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
quotes..(paraphrased)
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant." - Keynes
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Buffett
"Arrogance lowers IQ."
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Buffett
"Arrogance lowers IQ."
Spouse gets a raise....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,509.09
S&P 500 1,216.01
10-Yr T-Note 2.08%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 30.98
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
Spouse had her first review since she changed companies in 2009 (layoff), it went well. She received a raise. I'm very proud of how she picked herself up off the ground, dusted herself off, worked her network, and found a job without a gap in employment. I'm about 6 weeks away from feeling like I'll vest. The mood still seems ok, not great but not overly depressing. The company continues to 'leak' employees away from all areas without replacing them. It probably makes those of us who hang around, a bit more secure. Our team has a new manager, a director no less. The person we worked for is now a peer, although without any change in grade or pay (probably). We think he'll like that better.
The market had 5 up days, the consensus this week is that Europe won't disintegrate and the Euro may survive, so the 'risk trade' is back on. I managed to put some more money in junk bonds last week, slowly building a position to keep for awhile. We're also going to max out the HSA to save for future expenses. We'll probably start on our bathroom remodel in late September or early October. Dice seems to have more tech jobs, I hope that is a good sign.
DJIA 11,509.09
S&P 500 1,216.01
10-Yr T-Note 2.08%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 30.98
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
Spouse had her first review since she changed companies in 2009 (layoff), it went well. She received a raise. I'm very proud of how she picked herself up off the ground, dusted herself off, worked her network, and found a job without a gap in employment. I'm about 6 weeks away from feeling like I'll vest. The mood still seems ok, not great but not overly depressing. The company continues to 'leak' employees away from all areas without replacing them. It probably makes those of us who hang around, a bit more secure. Our team has a new manager, a director no less. The person we worked for is now a peer, although without any change in grade or pay (probably). We think he'll like that better.
The market had 5 up days, the consensus this week is that Europe won't disintegrate and the Euro may survive, so the 'risk trade' is back on. I managed to put some more money in junk bonds last week, slowly building a position to keep for awhile. We're also going to max out the HSA to save for future expenses. We'll probably start on our bathroom remodel in late September or early October. Dice seems to have more tech jobs, I hope that is a good sign.
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Birthday....
Where we're at:
dow: 11,240.26
S&P: 1,173.97
10yr: 1.99%
VIX: 33.92
s&p P/E: 20.18
equity: 29
bonds: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4%
Work group peer announced that he needs surgery on his neck, probably in September. So, I'll be solo for a few weeks. The jerk in me thinks that this may keep me from being laid off, but who knows with this place. I think he is nervous about the surgery and what happens while he is gone. Another month-end coming up, we'll see if the numbers get any better. It really is a slow slog out of the this mess.
Another IT employee left in the last two weeks, unoffically, I think that hits my prediction of 10, which includes the TLP people who moved on. Yet we continue to post new jobs (not IT) and staff offshore people and contractors. I think the analysts are waiting for the Oct conference to decide whether we're 'for real' this year.
dow: 11,240.26
S&P: 1,173.97
10yr: 1.99%
VIX: 33.92
s&p P/E: 20.18
equity: 29
bonds: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4%
Work group peer announced that he needs surgery on his neck, probably in September. So, I'll be solo for a few weeks. The jerk in me thinks that this may keep me from being laid off, but who knows with this place. I think he is nervous about the surgery and what happens while he is gone. Another month-end coming up, we'll see if the numbers get any better. It really is a slow slog out of the this mess.
Another IT employee left in the last two weeks, unoffically, I think that hits my prediction of 10, which includes the TLP people who moved on. Yet we continue to post new jobs (not IT) and staff offshore people and contractors. I think the analysts are waiting for the Oct conference to decide whether we're 'for real' this year.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
shopping...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,817.65
S&P 500 1,123.53
10-Yr T-Note 2.07%
s&p P/E: 19.39
VIX: 43.05
1yr: 2.94%
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
Another volatile 2 week period (up, then down), maybe a recession, maybe not. Maybe the Euro survives, maybe not. It seems to be in Germany and France's hand and the US debt downgrade also (from AAA to AA+). I'm not sure what this will mean for TXT, it's been getting hammered (down from 23.41 to 15.21 for the month). One of my team had a skip-level meeting with the CIO. It sounded optimistic, reorg, but no layoffs, we'll see. My lead seems to be giving me a bit more responsibility. We're putting in our DB upgrade next weekend, he seems happy with how that went and is happy that my peer and I are keeping up with the work.
Meanwhile, I'm buying again, mostly stocks and in the tax deferred area. Still trying to get our tax deferred equal or greater than our taxable. Trying to be more 'greedy' than fearful.
DJIA 10,817.65
S&P 500 1,123.53
10-Yr T-Note 2.07%
s&p P/E: 19.39
VIX: 43.05
1yr: 2.94%
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
Another volatile 2 week period (up, then down), maybe a recession, maybe not. Maybe the Euro survives, maybe not. It seems to be in Germany and France's hand and the US debt downgrade also (from AAA to AA+). I'm not sure what this will mean for TXT, it's been getting hammered (down from 23.41 to 15.21 for the month). One of my team had a skip-level meeting with the CIO. It sounded optimistic, reorg, but no layoffs, we'll see. My lead seems to be giving me a bit more responsibility. We're putting in our DB upgrade next weekend, he seems happy with how that went and is happy that my peer and I are keeping up with the work.
Meanwhile, I'm buying again, mostly stocks and in the tax deferred area. Still trying to get our tax deferred equal or greater than our taxable. Trying to be more 'greedy' than fearful.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
S&P Downgrade...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,444.61
S&P 500 1,199.38
10-Yr T-Note 2.56%
s&p P/E: 20.7
VIX: 32
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.07%
Recession fears have finally caught up with the US equity market and fears about Spain and Italy have driven down the European market. The dow has dropped about 1400 points in the last two weeks. I put some new money to work Friday in spouse's IRA. Glad I held back the 80K after the transfer. I think I'll have an opportunity over the next several months to put more to work. On 8/5 S&P downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+, probably due to the bickering during the debt ceiling debates.
This upcoming week brings another finance month end for CSNA, we'll see if we still have positive momentum going through the 3rd quarter. I had my 6 month review the last week of July, it went ok, but I will be guarded until at least November. However, we've saved enough to remodel the last room we have left, the master bathroom. So, we'll proceed with doing it.
DJIA 11,444.61
S&P 500 1,199.38
10-Yr T-Note 2.56%
s&p P/E: 20.7
VIX: 32
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.07%
Recession fears have finally caught up with the US equity market and fears about Spain and Italy have driven down the European market. The dow has dropped about 1400 points in the last two weeks. I put some new money to work Friday in spouse's IRA. Glad I held back the 80K after the transfer. I think I'll have an opportunity over the next several months to put more to work. On 8/5 S&P downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+, probably due to the bickering during the debt ceiling debates.
This upcoming week brings another finance month end for CSNA, we'll see if we still have positive momentum going through the 3rd quarter. I had my 6 month review the last week of July, it went ok, but I will be guarded until at least November. However, we've saved enough to remodel the last room we have left, the master bathroom. So, we'll proceed with doing it.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
debt ceiling countdown .....
Where we're at:
DJIAL 12,681.16
s&p: S&P 500 1,345.02
10 yr: 10-Yr T-Note 2.96%
s&p P/E: 23.77
VIX: 17.52
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 8.4%
What are these people thinking?! We can't let the U.S. default. But, we seem to be heading down that path. The market popped this week, seemingly due to positive 2nd qtr earnings. Next week will tell. The country is collectively holding its breath waiting for the outcome.
The TXT 2nd qtr call was on 7/20, it was uneventful. We reported EPS a bit better than expected so the stock popped the last part of the week. I may sell a bit more at ~30. I have my 6 month review on 7/27, the first one with the new supervisor, I think it will be fine, but I'm always nervous. CSNA continues to 'drip' people every week and not replacing them. No VLP announcement in June, so that was a good sign. Still, 50-50 to make May 2012.
DJIAL 12,681.16
s&p: S&P 500 1,345.02
10 yr: 10-Yr T-Note 2.96%
s&p P/E: 23.77
VIX: 17.52
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 8.4%
What are these people thinking?! We can't let the U.S. default. But, we seem to be heading down that path. The market popped this week, seemingly due to positive 2nd qtr earnings. Next week will tell. The country is collectively holding its breath waiting for the outcome.
The TXT 2nd qtr call was on 7/20, it was uneventful. We reported EPS a bit better than expected so the stock popped the last part of the week. I may sell a bit more at ~30. I have my 6 month review on 7/27, the first one with the new supervisor, I think it will be fine, but I'm always nervous. CSNA continues to 'drip' people every week and not replacing them. No VLP announcement in June, so that was a good sign. Still, 50-50 to make May 2012.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
4th of July 2011
Where we're at...
DJIA 12,582.77
s&p: S&P 500 1,339.67
10-Yr T-Note 3.20%
s&p P/E: 23.67
vix: 15.87
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 9.6%
The last week of June the markets stormed back, dow up ~5%. The explanation seems to be another delay for Greece declaring a default. The US economy continues to rock back and forth. Corporations raking in cash, consumers/workers hunkering down. I'm betting a down July or early August, the market has a debt ceiling raise priced in. If it's cut close or delayed, we'll have a drop.
Our team lost a member in June. He had been looking for awhile and needed to leave, he kept looking for an excuse and finally found another local job. Ironically, I applied for the same one, but was rejected. I suspect my options are limited in ICT if another layoff occurs. We've lost 7 in IT since the last layoff and I'm betting at least 3 more will walk by the end of the year (I already know of one more). I like my chances. My peer will be out for a few weeks due to surgery and I'm working to become more visible. But, we'll see. I feel much better about our spending this year, I did it right this time.
DJIA 12,582.77
s&p: S&P 500 1,339.67
10-Yr T-Note 3.20%
s&p P/E: 23.67
vix: 15.87
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 9.6%
The last week of June the markets stormed back, dow up ~5%. The explanation seems to be another delay for Greece declaring a default. The US economy continues to rock back and forth. Corporations raking in cash, consumers/workers hunkering down. I'm betting a down July or early August, the market has a debt ceiling raise priced in. If it's cut close or delayed, we'll have a drop.
Our team lost a member in June. He had been looking for awhile and needed to leave, he kept looking for an excuse and finally found another local job. Ironically, I applied for the same one, but was rejected. I suspect my options are limited in ICT if another layoff occurs. We've lost 7 in IT since the last layoff and I'm betting at least 3 more will walk by the end of the year (I already know of one more). I like my chances. My peer will be out for a few weeks due to surgery and I'm working to become more visible. But, we'll see. I feel much better about our spending this year, I did it right this time.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
The party's over....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,951.91
S&P 500 1,270.98
10-Yr T-Note 2.97%
s&p P/E: 22.46
VIX: 18.86
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1 yr: 6%
6 straight weeks of declines following a poor employment report on 6/3 (~50,000 jobs added, 9.1% unemployment). Deja vu from 2010, I'm concerned about the 2nd qtr call in July not sure what will be said. So, we pulled back on the home improvement stuff for now. Work is steady, the SFDC stuff seems to be going well. Glad I volunteered for it. IT management is sending out skip level meeting notices for late 2011 and 2012, that seems optimistic to me. I hope I'm around in Dec. when mine is scheduled.
Since the market is pausing, I'll start dipping a toe in with new money, not much just turning on some automatic stuff in tax deferred accounts.
DJIA 11,951.91
S&P 500 1,270.98
10-Yr T-Note 2.97%
s&p P/E: 22.46
VIX: 18.86
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1 yr: 6%
6 straight weeks of declines following a poor employment report on 6/3 (~50,000 jobs added, 9.1% unemployment). Deja vu from 2010, I'm concerned about the 2nd qtr call in July not sure what will be said. So, we pulled back on the home improvement stuff for now. Work is steady, the SFDC stuff seems to be going well. Glad I volunteered for it. IT management is sending out skip level meeting notices for late 2011 and 2012, that seems optimistic to me. I hope I'm around in Dec. when mine is scheduled.
Since the market is pausing, I'll start dipping a toe in with new money, not much just turning on some automatic stuff in tax deferred accounts.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
waiting it out...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 7.1%
May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.
The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.
DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 7.1%
May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.
The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
4 yr anniversary...
Where we're at...
DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.63%
The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).
This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.
DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.63%
The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).
This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.
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