Saturday, September 05, 2009

down...then up

Where we're at
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55

equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9

1 yr: -2.97

The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.

Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.

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