Where we're at
equity 28%
bonds 29%
cash 43%
personal 1yr -16.27
Dow 7365.67
SandP 770.05
10yr 2.7720 %
VIX 49.30
I have skated through 2 more weeks without a WARN notice. I am hearing about several IT staffers taking the VLP, still mostly people I don't know. AJ was slightly optimistic in our staff meeting. He mentioned that CSNA is starting to get orders again. He has not attended WARN training and our project is still important. The contractors are (finally) starting to trickle out the door. He also asked the newbie if Scott has coordinated any training for him yet. That seems like a good sign.
The talking heads continue to blather about what's right and wrong with the govts actions. What I know is whatever happens, we'll have higher interest rates and taxes. The rest is a crapshoot, so I need to position us for those realities. This week was depressing, market wise, but I am still employed. At least for 60 more days. Surprisingly, we get a fed tax refund this year.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
4000 laid off
Where we stand:
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
layoff time again....
Where we stand...
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Interesting week...
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Where we are:
SandP: 887.88
Dow: 8579.11
10 yr: 2.12%
VIX: 44.93
equities: 32
bonds: 28
cash: 40
YTD: -13.98%
We are gradually improving for the year, but it's still painful to review our investments. TXT-CSNA booted us out for 10 business days, 2 of which were unpaid unless you took vacation. 2009 still looks bad. I read a Biz Week article this week talking about the increase in used jets. No way we make it without another layoff. The project I'm on is going to be extended due to missing a date. The consultants will probably be around for another 3-6 months.
We are due for our plan review on 12/29. We almost have the trust fully funded. It will be good to get that completed. J and I have decided to forego new taxable equity investments next year in order to pay cash for a vehicle. I have always wanted to do that. We'll continue to fund our retirement investments and hope for some sort of recovery.
SandP: 887.88
Dow: 8579.11
10 yr: 2.12%
VIX: 44.93
equities: 32
bonds: 28
cash: 40
YTD: -13.98%
We are gradually improving for the year, but it's still painful to review our investments. TXT-CSNA booted us out for 10 business days, 2 of which were unpaid unless you took vacation. 2009 still looks bad. I read a Biz Week article this week talking about the increase in used jets. No way we make it without another layoff. The project I'm on is going to be extended due to missing a date. The consultants will probably be around for another 3-6 months.
We are due for our plan review on 12/29. We almost have the trust fully funded. It will be good to get that completed. J and I have decided to forego new taxable equity investments next year in order to pay cash for a vehicle. I have always wanted to do that. We'll continue to fund our retirement investments and hope for some sort of recovery.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
SandP: 873.79
10yr: 2.5890%
DOW: 8629.68
YTD: -15.5
cash: 41%
bonds: 27%
equity: 32%
We rescheduled our planner meeting to 12/29. I logged onto V's site and left a few comments about their recommendations. Mostly, it is the same stuff they have recommended for years. I think this will be the last time we use it for awhile. It appears the Bush administration will provide some sort of stop-gap money to the automakers to keep them solvent for a few more weeks. The FED is due to meet about i-rates this week (Tuesday). Consensus is that they'll head to 0%.
I sold some muni bonds to take a tax loss this week and apply to a small gain from earlier in the year. That seems like ages ago. TXT continues to lay people off from other divisions and corporate. The stock continues to languish in the teens, off about 70% from its high.
10yr: 2.5890%
DOW: 8629.68
YTD: -15.5
cash: 41%
bonds: 27%
equity: 32%
We rescheduled our planner meeting to 12/29. I logged onto V's site and left a few comments about their recommendations. Mostly, it is the same stuff they have recommended for years. I think this will be the last time we use it for awhile. It appears the Bush administration will provide some sort of stop-gap money to the automakers to keep them solvent for a few more weeks. The FED is due to meet about i-rates this week (Tuesday). Consensus is that they'll head to 0%.
I sold some muni bonds to take a tax loss this week and apply to a small gain from earlier in the year. That seems like ages ago. TXT continues to lay people off from other divisions and corporate. The stock continues to languish in the teens, off about 70% from its high.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Where we're at:
SandP: 870.74
DJIA: 8591.69
10 yr (^TNX): 2.676
SandP P/E: 15.37
cash: 40%
equity: 30%
bonds: 30%
YTD: -16.11
I would characterize this market as more of a trader's than investor's market. My new term for it is “market whiplash”. The VIX has been above 20 since September. On the bright side, Jeremy Siegel postulates that the S&P is undervalued by ~500 points given operating earnings of $83 and a P/E of 16.6. Also, I did not get laid off (yet). A biz aircraft pundit is predicting this downturn to be worse then 2002-3, when my employer laid off 3,000. Great, only 2,500 to go.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
SandP: 870.74
DJIA: 8591.69
10 yr (^TNX): 2.676
SandP P/E: 15.37
cash: 40%
equity: 30%
bonds: 30%
YTD: -16.11
I would characterize this market as more of a trader's than investor's market. My new term for it is “market whiplash”. The VIX has been above 20 since September. On the bright side, Jeremy Siegel postulates that the S&P is undervalued by ~500 points given operating earnings of $83 and a P/E of 16.6. Also, I did not get laid off (yet). A biz aircraft pundit is predicting this downturn to be worse then 2002-3, when my employer laid off 3,000. Great, only 2,500 to go.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thanksgiving 2008
As Barry Corbin said in "WarGames", "I need a machine to tell me that...?" The economic news continues to be bad. Falling housing starts and prices, higher initial unemployment claims, lower orders for durable goods. Why are houses even getting built? I should find out Monday if I still have a job. I am remaining optimistic. Our investments are having a better week so far, our YTD backed off to ~-15% so far.
As Barry Corbin said in "WarGames", "I need a machine to tell me that...?" The economic news continues to be bad. Falling housing starts and prices, higher initial unemployment claims, lower orders for durable goods. Why are houses even getting built? I should find out Monday if I still have a job. I am remaining optimistic. Our investments are having a better week so far, our YTD backed off to ~-15% so far.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
I slept better last night, writing a blog helped. I continue to obsess over what to do. Should I move part of our 401(k) money into stable value or MM funds? Not sure, my head says to ride it out. Greedy while others are fearful. My stomach says move a percentage into the stable stuff.
But, since stable value funds are run by insurance companies, how "stable" will they be? I want to wait until the planner meeting on Dec 10. Curious on what he says. "Stay the course". I wonder if he/she can say that with a straight face. I always want to ask how they invest their money.
Good decisions:
1. Exit the junk bond fund in 2007
2. Did not go 'all in' to the stock market the last time the planner said to (2007)
3. Did not buy the commodities fund at its high in 2008
Health, family, home, job, investments....in that order.
But, since stable value funds are run by insurance companies, how "stable" will they be? I want to wait until the planner meeting on Dec 10. Curious on what he says. "Stay the course". I wonder if he/she can say that with a straight face. I always want to ask how they invest their money.
Good decisions:
1. Exit the junk bond fund in 2007
2. Did not go 'all in' to the stock market the last time the planner said to (2007)
3. Did not buy the commodities fund at its high in 2008
Health, family, home, job, investments....in that order.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
planner meeting
Dec 2008
1. REIT?
2. Roth funds?
3. Sell to offset gain
4. Commodities?
5. What bond fund?
The planner posted his findings today. Unfortunately, they look just like last year. This person is expecting me to sell out of vtsmx in my IRA, assume the loss and buy bonds ?! When the planner reviewed our allocations, we were at 40% equity, 30% bond, and 30% reserves. Liquidate TIPS and buy vbmfx? No, inflation WILL return and when it does, having some TIPS will be a good idea. V is pushing diversified equity (again as well).
1. REIT?
2. Roth funds?
3. Sell to offset gain
4. Commodities?
5. What bond fund?
The planner posted his findings today. Unfortunately, they look just like last year. This person is expecting me to sell out of vtsmx in my IRA, assume the loss and buy bonds ?! When the planner reviewed our allocations, we were at 40% equity, 30% bond, and 30% reserves. Liquidate TIPS and buy vbmfx? No, inflation WILL return and when it does, having some TIPS will be a good idea. V is pushing diversified equity (again as well).
bear 2008 vs 2002
What worked in 2002:
value - financials
REIT
health care
Cargill ESOP
small caps
emerging markets beat out developing markets
usual suspects...bonds, MM, even junk bonds made money
What happened? Coming out of the dot com years, financials and real estate accelerated into bubble2. In 2008, nothing escapes except treasuries. David Swenson nailed it. In times of crisis, everyone flocks to the US.
What worked in 2002:
value - financials
REIT
health care
Cargill ESOP
small caps
emerging markets beat out developing markets
usual suspects...bonds, MM, even junk bonds made money
What happened? Coming out of the dot com years, financials and real estate accelerated into bubble2. In 2008, nothing escapes except treasuries. David Swenson nailed it. In times of crisis, everyone flocks to the US.
bear nov 2008
Where we're at:
SandP: 800.03
DJIA: 8046.42
10 yr (^TNX): 3.167
SandP P/E: 12.25
cash: 40%
equity: 30%
bonds: 30%
YTD: -18.30
Musings:
Job:
I'm still waiting to hear whether I'll still have a job in January 2009. TXT-CSNA announced a layoff of 500 people this month. One person in our group volunteered to be let go. I hope to hear something before Thanksgiving. Assuming out project goes live, my job should be safe. A new person starts this week. It still seems ridiculous to hire someone else when others are being let go. My wife's job appears to be safe. Fortunately, we both work in different industries.
Investments:
I keep waking up at 4:00 am thinking about ideas to recover some of our losses. My head says I'm doing the right thing, but the emotions want to run for cover. I have to remember why we bought what we did and the fundamental reasons why we would sell. This week Jubak says we may have been in a secular bear since 2000. That seems correct, IT treasuries have performed better (~5.5%/yr), than VTSMX (~1.2%/yr) over 10 years.
Thoughts:
I set up an alert to tell me when IT treasuries return to their Aug 2008 levels. When they do, I'll switch out of VBMFX and into them. We'll continue making equity purchases only in 401(k) and IRA accounts. Transfer DWS MUNI to V treasury during Dec. Sell off equity to apply to earlier gains. David Swenson was right, treasuries are the place to be in a crisis.
SandP: 800.03
DJIA: 8046.42
10 yr (^TNX): 3.167
SandP P/E: 12.25
cash: 40%
equity: 30%
bonds: 30%
YTD: -18.30
Musings:
Job:
I'm still waiting to hear whether I'll still have a job in January 2009. TXT-CSNA announced a layoff of 500 people this month. One person in our group volunteered to be let go. I hope to hear something before Thanksgiving. Assuming out project goes live, my job should be safe. A new person starts this week. It still seems ridiculous to hire someone else when others are being let go. My wife's job appears to be safe. Fortunately, we both work in different industries.
Investments:
I keep waking up at 4:00 am thinking about ideas to recover some of our losses. My head says I'm doing the right thing, but the emotions want to run for cover. I have to remember why we bought what we did and the fundamental reasons why we would sell. This week Jubak says we may have been in a secular bear since 2000. That seems correct, IT treasuries have performed better (~5.5%/yr), than VTSMX (~1.2%/yr) over 10 years.
Thoughts:
I set up an alert to tell me when IT treasuries return to their Aug 2008 levels. When they do, I'll switch out of VBMFX and into them. We'll continue making equity purchases only in 401(k) and IRA accounts. Transfer DWS MUNI to V treasury during Dec. Sell off equity to apply to earlier gains. David Swenson was right, treasuries are the place to be in a crisis.
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