On Friday, Aug 28, spouse was notified that her job would be eliminated on 10/2. She was given the option to leave immediately or stay for 30 days to transition. She took it it quite hard, it seemed pretty unexpected. Her sales performance had been improving over the summer and she had received good comments from the division GM. They seemed to have had this in mind for awhile. They pitched having her become a "partner" and sell AT&T and division network services. They assert that she could make more money doing that. After being with this company for 17 years, she was shocked about the news. I think she wants to do the partner thing, but I would honestly rather she look for another full-time gig.
I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
another run...waiting for a fall?
Where we're at:
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
furlough week 3 ...
Where we're at:
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
a nice run up....
Where we're at
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Saturday, July 11, 2009
back to work....
Where we're at:
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Off to CO...
Where we're at..
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
more layoffs...
Where we're at
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
higher interest rates..?
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
mid May 2009
Where we're at:
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
more bad news...
Where we're at:
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
run up for TXT
Where we're at
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
good news..bad news
Where we are:
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
Friday, March 20, 2009
two week bear rally
Where we're at
Dow: 7278
SandP: 768.54
10yr: 2.6250%
VIX: 45.89
equity: 29.1
bond: 27.2
cash: 43.7
YTD: -15.67%
The last 2 weeks have been rough, lots of group on-call, but it seems like we're starting to take control of the warehouse. AJ even seems to act like we work for him occassionally. We had another workforce update, but no new layoffs, just confirming the furloughs. I received a linked in e-mail from Koch Industries about a DBA position. It looks like the one I interviewed for 2 years ago. They seem to have a lot of turnover for those positions. I decided to not apply for WSU's job. I think I'm "supposed" to be at CSNA. at least for now.
J seems to be getting into a groove with making her calls. That's good because she'll need to stay visible to her boss. The market has had a bounce for the last two weeks, mostly due to positive news from Citigroup. The pundits think we're going back down.
3 things I'm confident about: First, higher taxes. With all the deficit spending going on, the only way to pay for it is with higher taxes. Second, higher inflation. The FED has "printed" so much money the only way to "sop" it all up in the future is to raise interest rates and restrict monetary growth. Third, there is so much money on the sidelines, that all the market needs is some good news to drive it back to 10,000.
Dow: 7278
SandP: 768.54
10yr: 2.6250%
VIX: 45.89
equity: 29.1
bond: 27.2
cash: 43.7
YTD: -15.67%
The last 2 weeks have been rough, lots of group on-call, but it seems like we're starting to take control of the warehouse. AJ even seems to act like we work for him occassionally. We had another workforce update, but no new layoffs, just confirming the furloughs. I received a linked in e-mail from Koch Industries about a DBA position. It looks like the one I interviewed for 2 years ago. They seem to have a lot of turnover for those positions. I decided to not apply for WSU's job. I think I'm "supposed" to be at CSNA. at least for now.
J seems to be getting into a groove with making her calls. That's good because she'll need to stay visible to her boss. The market has had a bounce for the last two weeks, mostly due to positive news from Citigroup. The pundits think we're going back down.
3 things I'm confident about: First, higher taxes. With all the deficit spending going on, the only way to pay for it is with higher taxes. Second, higher inflation. The FED has "printed" so much money the only way to "sop" it all up in the future is to raise interest rates and restrict monetary growth. Third, there is so much money on the sidelines, that all the market needs is some good news to drive it back to 10,000.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
are we there yet?
Where we're at
cash 45.5
bond 28
equity 26.5
performance -19%
dow 6626
s&p 683
10 year 2.88
VIX 49.33
SandP P/E: 13.14
This week J had her salary cut by 5% and her 401(k) match eliminated by her company. Quite a shock, I thought her job was safer than mine. I think they have laid off ~10 people this year so far. TXT continues to dive down, it closed at 3.75 on 3/6. I have reduced her 401(k) deferral by 4% to try and recover some net pay. I have also reduced my excess fed withholding since we'll get a refund for 2008 and our financial status will be steady or worse through 2009. Bring on 2010.
cash 45.5
bond 28
equity 26.5
performance -19%
dow 6626
s&p 683
10 year 2.88
VIX 49.33
SandP P/E: 13.14
This week J had her salary cut by 5% and her 401(k) match eliminated by her company. Quite a shock, I thought her job was safer than mine. I think they have laid off ~10 people this year so far. TXT continues to dive down, it closed at 3.75 on 3/6. I have reduced her 401(k) deferral by 4% to try and recover some net pay. I have also reduced my excess fed withholding since we'll get a refund for 2008 and our financial status will be steady or worse through 2009. Bring on 2010.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Where we're at
equity 28%
bonds 29%
cash 43%
personal 1yr -16.27
Dow 7365.67
SandP 770.05
10yr 2.7720 %
VIX 49.30
I have skated through 2 more weeks without a WARN notice. I am hearing about several IT staffers taking the VLP, still mostly people I don't know. AJ was slightly optimistic in our staff meeting. He mentioned that CSNA is starting to get orders again. He has not attended WARN training and our project is still important. The contractors are (finally) starting to trickle out the door. He also asked the newbie if Scott has coordinated any training for him yet. That seems like a good sign.
The talking heads continue to blather about what's right and wrong with the govts actions. What I know is whatever happens, we'll have higher interest rates and taxes. The rest is a crapshoot, so I need to position us for those realities. This week was depressing, market wise, but I am still employed. At least for 60 more days. Surprisingly, we get a fed tax refund this year.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
equity 28%
bonds 29%
cash 43%
personal 1yr -16.27
Dow 7365.67
SandP 770.05
10yr 2.7720 %
VIX 49.30
I have skated through 2 more weeks without a WARN notice. I am hearing about several IT staffers taking the VLP, still mostly people I don't know. AJ was slightly optimistic in our staff meeting. He mentioned that CSNA is starting to get orders again. He has not attended WARN training and our project is still important. The contractors are (finally) starting to trickle out the door. He also asked the newbie if Scott has coordinated any training for him yet. That seems like a good sign.
The talking heads continue to blather about what's right and wrong with the govts actions. What I know is whatever happens, we'll have higher interest rates and taxes. The rest is a crapshoot, so I need to position us for those realities. This week was depressing, market wise, but I am still employed. At least for 60 more days. Surprisingly, we get a fed tax refund this year.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
Saturday, January 31, 2009
4000 laid off
Where we stand:
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
layoff time again....
Where we stand...
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Interesting week...
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Where we are:
SandP: 887.88
Dow: 8579.11
10 yr: 2.12%
VIX: 44.93
equities: 32
bonds: 28
cash: 40
YTD: -13.98%
We are gradually improving for the year, but it's still painful to review our investments. TXT-CSNA booted us out for 10 business days, 2 of which were unpaid unless you took vacation. 2009 still looks bad. I read a Biz Week article this week talking about the increase in used jets. No way we make it without another layoff. The project I'm on is going to be extended due to missing a date. The consultants will probably be around for another 3-6 months.
We are due for our plan review on 12/29. We almost have the trust fully funded. It will be good to get that completed. J and I have decided to forego new taxable equity investments next year in order to pay cash for a vehicle. I have always wanted to do that. We'll continue to fund our retirement investments and hope for some sort of recovery.
SandP: 887.88
Dow: 8579.11
10 yr: 2.12%
VIX: 44.93
equities: 32
bonds: 28
cash: 40
YTD: -13.98%
We are gradually improving for the year, but it's still painful to review our investments. TXT-CSNA booted us out for 10 business days, 2 of which were unpaid unless you took vacation. 2009 still looks bad. I read a Biz Week article this week talking about the increase in used jets. No way we make it without another layoff. The project I'm on is going to be extended due to missing a date. The consultants will probably be around for another 3-6 months.
We are due for our plan review on 12/29. We almost have the trust fully funded. It will be good to get that completed. J and I have decided to forego new taxable equity investments next year in order to pay cash for a vehicle. I have always wanted to do that. We'll continue to fund our retirement investments and hope for some sort of recovery.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
SandP: 873.79
10yr: 2.5890%
DOW: 8629.68
YTD: -15.5
cash: 41%
bonds: 27%
equity: 32%
We rescheduled our planner meeting to 12/29. I logged onto V's site and left a few comments about their recommendations. Mostly, it is the same stuff they have recommended for years. I think this will be the last time we use it for awhile. It appears the Bush administration will provide some sort of stop-gap money to the automakers to keep them solvent for a few more weeks. The FED is due to meet about i-rates this week (Tuesday). Consensus is that they'll head to 0%.
I sold some muni bonds to take a tax loss this week and apply to a small gain from earlier in the year. That seems like ages ago. TXT continues to lay people off from other divisions and corporate. The stock continues to languish in the teens, off about 70% from its high.
10yr: 2.5890%
DOW: 8629.68
YTD: -15.5
cash: 41%
bonds: 27%
equity: 32%
We rescheduled our planner meeting to 12/29. I logged onto V's site and left a few comments about their recommendations. Mostly, it is the same stuff they have recommended for years. I think this will be the last time we use it for awhile. It appears the Bush administration will provide some sort of stop-gap money to the automakers to keep them solvent for a few more weeks. The FED is due to meet about i-rates this week (Tuesday). Consensus is that they'll head to 0%.
I sold some muni bonds to take a tax loss this week and apply to a small gain from earlier in the year. That seems like ages ago. TXT continues to lay people off from other divisions and corporate. The stock continues to languish in the teens, off about 70% from its high.
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