Where we're at:
DOW: 15,258.24
s&p: 1691.75
10 yr: 2.62
s&p P/E: 24.19
VIX: 15.46
equity: 37
bond: 32
cash: 31
YTD: 4.8%
Since my present employer is not in the turmoil my previous employer is, I don't feel the need to post as often. Sorry, if anyone is following. Over the summer, my team has had some turnover. One guy left in May, another in August. I think they just got tired / bored with the work. I think it may make my spot a bit more secure. But unlike previous, if these guys decide to can you, it will just happen. Lead says I'm doing fine, and I don't worry about the 'layoff cloud' hanging around anymore. If it happens, it happens.
Spouse is doing fine, she is off to Boston in Oct and Cancun in Jan. She should make it through the year and get her 3 year payout. Most days are ok for her, but she struggles with sitting and making phone calls. TXT announced a small fighter jet last week, designed by CSNA (so that's what was going on in the glass house for 2 years....). I hope it can get some traction, it occurred to me this week that layoff time is coming around again, typically early October. The public stuff coming out of the company is not great, still slow. Another earnings call is coming up as well. The market is waiting for any kind of positive jet number, if that comes, TXT will cross 30. I only have a few shares and with the new programs coming on-line next year, deliveries could tick up. So, I'll hang on for a bit longer, try to get low 30's for my shares.
I dumped the IAU I bought in the spring, gold seems to be in a long term downward trend, except for a few rallies when the congressional idiots rattle their swords. I also stared building an international bond position for the long term now that V has the funds. Our house repair work is complete this month, so most of the interior and exterior is in good shape. We're starting to think about staying here after the house is paid for (~3 years). We could do worse.
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Saturday, June 01, 2013
Settling in.....
Where we're at:
DJIA: 15,115.57
s&p: 1630.74
s&p PE: 23.89
VIX: 16.30
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 6.2%
After ~90 days, I'm settling in to my new role. The friend who clued me in to the job is leaving the area, it's a shame to see him take off. It still feels different, but not weird anymore. I'm hanging on to my TXT (140 shares), we'll see if the new models can spark an uptick. V started their new int'l bond funds (finally), after the target allocations are made, I'll see if we need to buy any more for a 20% stake.
I finally bought some IAU, just for insurance and just a few shares. I'd like to get it to a few thousand then forget about it. But, I'll only buy as it drops. It's almost time to buy some more REITs and int'l equities as well, they're coming off their highs, so I'll watch them. I'm also wanting to buy some KMR when it comes back some. Had a little SQL consult gig in May, to chip in some $$ and keep my SQL knowledge up. I'm due for my first review at the new place (3 months), it should go ok.
No vacation this year, our house needs repairs after a May hailstorm, plus we have medical stuff to do over the summer. Son turned 18 today, wow the last 10 years have flown by. Work support this week has made me even more determined to 'kiss' off IT at 60 and be a Y towel boy :).
DJIA: 15,115.57
s&p: 1630.74
| 10yr: 2.16 |
VIX: 16.30
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 6.2%
After ~90 days, I'm settling in to my new role. The friend who clued me in to the job is leaving the area, it's a shame to see him take off. It still feels different, but not weird anymore. I'm hanging on to my TXT (140 shares), we'll see if the new models can spark an uptick. V started their new int'l bond funds (finally), after the target allocations are made, I'll see if we need to buy any more for a 20% stake.
I finally bought some IAU, just for insurance and just a few shares. I'd like to get it to a few thousand then forget about it. But, I'll only buy as it drops. It's almost time to buy some more REITs and int'l equities as well, they're coming off their highs, so I'll watch them. I'm also wanting to buy some KMR when it comes back some. Had a little SQL consult gig in May, to chip in some $$ and keep my SQL knowledge up. I'm due for my first review at the new place (3 months), it should go ok.
No vacation this year, our house needs repairs after a May hailstorm, plus we have medical stuff to do over the summer. Son turned 18 today, wow the last 10 years have flown by. Work support this week has made me even more determined to 'kiss' off IT at 60 and be a Y towel boy :).
Saturday, April 20, 2013
TXT bulls get it wrong....
Where we're at:
Dow: 14,547.51
s&p: 1555.25
10yr: 1.70
s&p P/E: 22.82
VIX: 14.97
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 5.3%
Well...the call on 4/17 was brutal. Scott D. announced a production reduction for 2013 preceded by voluntary layoffs (about 1 a year at CSNA for the past 5 years, if you're keeping score). He finally seemed to throw in the towel again and acknowledge that buyers are waiting for a price pullback that he does not want to play. Seems like a reasonable strategy. It appears that maybe jet buyers are also waiting for new model deliveries to materialize. I sold some shares on 4/11 (30.02), glad to cash them in. I hold ~150 now. Toward the end a very interesting discussion took place around the 2015 time frame, when Bell may be ramping down the V-22.
I recall the activity in 2009 around Columbus and how those folks got their deposits back, maybe being burned once is causing some hesitation to commit. He was also asked about the dividend and replied that no increase is forthcoming. So maybe the yahoo message board will get the 'message' and stop blathering on about a dividend increase being just 'around the corner'.
Anyway, I also took this opportunity to buy some IAU, I hope to build a position over the year, if the metal continues to drop. We appear to be going into the typical spring pattern of the last few years.
New job is going ok, still feel 'dumb' but I'm coming along. Spouse seems to be getting deals done again, hopefully that will continue throughout the year.
Dow: 14,547.51
s&p: 1555.25
10yr: 1.70
s&p P/E: 22.82
VIX: 14.97
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 5.3%
Well...the call on 4/17 was brutal. Scott D. announced a production reduction for 2013 preceded by voluntary layoffs (about 1 a year at CSNA for the past 5 years, if you're keeping score). He finally seemed to throw in the towel again and acknowledge that buyers are waiting for a price pullback that he does not want to play. Seems like a reasonable strategy. It appears that maybe jet buyers are also waiting for new model deliveries to materialize. I sold some shares on 4/11 (30.02), glad to cash them in. I hold ~150 now. Toward the end a very interesting discussion took place around the 2015 time frame, when Bell may be ramping down the V-22.
I recall the activity in 2009 around Columbus and how those folks got their deposits back, maybe being burned once is causing some hesitation to commit. He was also asked about the dividend and replied that no increase is forthcoming. So maybe the yahoo message board will get the 'message' and stop blathering on about a dividend increase being just 'around the corner'.
Anyway, I also took this opportunity to buy some IAU, I hope to build a position over the year, if the metal continues to drop. We appear to be going into the typical spring pattern of the last few years.
New job is going ok, still feel 'dumb' but I'm coming along. Spouse seems to be getting deals done again, hopefully that will continue throughout the year.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
New job.....
Where we're at:
dow: 14512
s&p: 1556
10 yr: 1.91
VIX: 13.57
s&p P/E: 23.27
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
I changed jobs in March, opting for (I hope) a bit more long term security. Spouse is having a much better March, the first two months of the year were very slow for her and her company. We'll see how the year goes. So now we're adjusting to a bit less pay, new insurance coverage, and a bit less tax deferred savings, but I think it will be a good trade off. I will continue to watch TXT as I have some shares and I am interested in how the company makes out this year. S&P is still targeting a $39 price, hope they're right, but I don't see it. The biz jet predictions have been too optimistic for 3 years now. The call in April will be interesting.
Shortly before I resigned, our team's manager told us he was leaving for a new IT job with another TXT division. We all knew it was what he was going after when he came on to our team. We'll see how he does. I met the new manager shortly before I left, the team seems to be adjusting to that person, although she left for vacation the first week she was in charge. There have been some rumors of IT staff leaving in Texas, I think some were involuntary. I feel a bit sorry for my peer, it sounds like I will be replaced, but who knows how long that will take and he'll be probably on-call a bit more than before.
I have been in my new job about 2 weeks now, the people have been friendly and the work seems to be what was advertised, but we'll see....
I am waiting for a pullback, before I invest more spouse IRA money, the goal is still to empty her rollover cash into equities, but the market seems too high right now. I like everything else we own, except for some of the TXT stock :)
dow: 14512
s&p: 1556
10 yr: 1.91
VIX: 13.57
s&p P/E: 23.27
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
I changed jobs in March, opting for (I hope) a bit more long term security. Spouse is having a much better March, the first two months of the year were very slow for her and her company. We'll see how the year goes. So now we're adjusting to a bit less pay, new insurance coverage, and a bit less tax deferred savings, but I think it will be a good trade off. I will continue to watch TXT as I have some shares and I am interested in how the company makes out this year. S&P is still targeting a $39 price, hope they're right, but I don't see it. The biz jet predictions have been too optimistic for 3 years now. The call in April will be interesting.
Shortly before I resigned, our team's manager told us he was leaving for a new IT job with another TXT division. We all knew it was what he was going after when he came on to our team. We'll see how he does. I met the new manager shortly before I left, the team seems to be adjusting to that person, although she left for vacation the first week she was in charge. There have been some rumors of IT staff leaving in Texas, I think some were involuntary. I feel a bit sorry for my peer, it sounds like I will be replaced, but who knows how long that will take and he'll be probably on-call a bit more than before.
I have been in my new job about 2 weeks now, the people have been friendly and the work seems to be what was advertised, but we'll see....
I am waiting for a pullback, before I invest more spouse IRA money, the goal is still to empty her rollover cash into equities, but the market seems too high right now. I like everything else we own, except for some of the TXT stock :)
Sunday, March 03, 2013
March 2013.....
Where we're at:
Dow: 14089
s&p: 1518.20
10yr: 1.85%
VIX: 15.36
s&p P/E: 23.39
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
Well...the sequester happened and the world hasn't ended yet. Not sure what the impact to TXT will be. The stock took a hit on Friday, -1.32%. I remember Scott D. was pretty confident we would not get to this point during the 2012 Q3 call, wonder what he thinks now. Our group manager is off to bigger and better, it is a good move for him and deserved. Not sure what it means for our team. We've been put on notice that our application is not meeting expectations and we have to step up our performance. Spouse is having a rough start this year so far, I think the economy is just holding everyone back (what's new?).
We gave back some gains in February, the AAII index is pulling back as well. People have easily given up their bullish outlook, me I'm waiting to buy again :) I'm learning about technical analysis to take some of the emotion out of when to sell, it is kind of fun, though I still like our holdings. My goal is to invest a chunk of cash in spouse's IRA.
Dow: 14089
s&p: 1518.20
10yr: 1.85%
VIX: 15.36
s&p P/E: 23.39
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
Well...the sequester happened and the world hasn't ended yet. Not sure what the impact to TXT will be. The stock took a hit on Friday, -1.32%. I remember Scott D. was pretty confident we would not get to this point during the 2012 Q3 call, wonder what he thinks now. Our group manager is off to bigger and better, it is a good move for him and deserved. Not sure what it means for our team. We've been put on notice that our application is not meeting expectations and we have to step up our performance. Spouse is having a rough start this year so far, I think the economy is just holding everyone back (what's new?).
We gave back some gains in February, the AAII index is pulling back as well. People have easily given up their bullish outlook, me I'm waiting to buy again :) I'm learning about technical analysis to take some of the emotion out of when to sell, it is kind of fun, though I still like our holdings. My goal is to invest a chunk of cash in spouse's IRA.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Great January....
Where we're at:
Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34
1yr: 6.1%
Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines. The AAII survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell. I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase. I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.
The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop. I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore. Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets. Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions. CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...
Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34
1yr: 6.1%
Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines. The AAII survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell. I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase. I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.
The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop. I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore. Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets. Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions. CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...
Saturday, January 05, 2013
2013...recessionary?
Where we're at:
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
Saturday, October 20, 2012
3rd qtr 2012..
Where we're at:
DJIA: 13343.51
s&p: 1433.19
10yr: 1.77%
s&p P/E: 22.48
VIX: 17.06
equity: 33
bond: 33
cash: 35
1 yr: 8.7%
The TXT call was last Wednesday. Mostly positive, but the company did not meet estimates and was slammed hard (-6%). Fairly easy to predict, the ("elephant in the room" ) jet manufacturer reported lower deliveries. The CEO was hit hard throughout the call to forecast 4th qtr and 2013 demand but he held back. The pundits seem to think that the entire business community is (still) waiting for Washington to "grow a pair" and work together. Hopefully that will happen, but who really knows. On Thursday, a major CSNA competitor, reported that its efforts to become acquired by a China company were not successful and TXT recovered nicely.
If I worked for Bell, I would be wondering what I have to do to get some respect? All they have done is exceed forecasts and deliver strong revenue for the company for the last 2 years. They continue to have an open position that I have created a draft app for, but I can't seem 'to pull the trigger'. Part of me is nervous abut the whole defense sequestration stuff and I'm concerned that the v-22 will get cut. The rest of me thinks we're better off here with my spouse's gig.
Good year for us so far, we're pushing the needle to the right, like I hoped. A few more years like this one and I may be able to call it a career at 60. Trying to keep a lid on expenses for the remainder of 2012 and fully fund our HSA and roths.
DJIA: 13343.51
s&p: 1433.19
10yr: 1.77%
s&p P/E: 22.48
VIX: 17.06
equity: 33
bond: 33
cash: 35
1 yr: 8.7%
The TXT call was last Wednesday. Mostly positive, but the company did not meet estimates and was slammed hard (-6%). Fairly easy to predict, the ("elephant in the room" ) jet manufacturer reported lower deliveries. The CEO was hit hard throughout the call to forecast 4th qtr and 2013 demand but he held back. The pundits seem to think that the entire business community is (still) waiting for Washington to "grow a pair" and work together. Hopefully that will happen, but who really knows. On Thursday, a major CSNA competitor, reported that its efforts to become acquired by a China company were not successful and TXT recovered nicely.
If I worked for Bell, I would be wondering what I have to do to get some respect? All they have done is exceed forecasts and deliver strong revenue for the company for the last 2 years. They continue to have an open position that I have created a draft app for, but I can't seem 'to pull the trigger'. Part of me is nervous abut the whole defense sequestration stuff and I'm concerned that the v-22 will get cut. The rest of me thinks we're better off here with my spouse's gig.
Good year for us so far, we're pushing the needle to the right, like I hoped. A few more years like this one and I may be able to call it a career at 60. Trying to keep a lid on expenses for the remainder of 2012 and fully fund our HSA and roths.
Sunday, October 07, 2012
cruise into the election....
Where we're at:
DJIA 13,610.15
s&p: 1,460.93
10 yr: 1.73%
s&p P/E: 22.91
vix: 14.33
equity: 33%
bond: 33%
cash: 34%
1 yr: 8.7%
I watched the debate on Thursday and became more impressed with Romney. I don't think it would be the worst thing to happen if he won. As I have thought, I'll vote for the person that can get Washington to 'work' again. If it's him, he'll get my vote. The employment rate surprise on Friday, does seem suspicious, but Welch is an idiot with his tweet. The guy needs to 'dry up and blow away'.
The year we're having is a pleasant surprise, up almost 9 for the year. I like what we own and don't plan on selling anything yet. But, if TXT hits 30, I'll unload some. Spouse continues her great year, she is off to headquarters in a couple of weeks. I actually told her I'll keep an open mind about relocation, if it's ever brought up. I think I'd have an easier time finding a new job on the East Coast, if the need arises. We'll see what happens after 10/17 when the 3rd quarter is announced.
DJIA 13,610.15
s&p: 1,460.93
10 yr: 1.73%
s&p P/E: 22.91
vix: 14.33
equity: 33%
bond: 33%
cash: 34%
1 yr: 8.7%
I watched the debate on Thursday and became more impressed with Romney. I don't think it would be the worst thing to happen if he won. As I have thought, I'll vote for the person that can get Washington to 'work' again. If it's him, he'll get my vote. The employment rate surprise on Friday, does seem suspicious, but Welch is an idiot with his tweet. The guy needs to 'dry up and blow away'.
The year we're having is a pleasant surprise, up almost 9 for the year. I like what we own and don't plan on selling anything yet. But, if TXT hits 30, I'll unload some. Spouse continues her great year, she is off to headquarters in a couple of weeks. I actually told her I'll keep an open mind about relocation, if it's ever brought up. I think I'd have an easier time finding a new job on the East Coast, if the need arises. We'll see what happens after 10/17 when the 3rd quarter is announced.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
more Fed accomodation?
Where we're at:
s&p: 1437.92
dow: 13306.64
10yr: 1.66%
VIX: 14.38
s&p P/E: 23.10
equity: 33%
bond: 30%
cash: 35%
1yr: 5.2%
After the 2nd qtr beat, not sure how the 3rd qtr will be. The macro environment is still 'up in the air' (pun). The public face is positive, CSNA programs our moving along and BH is doing well. My morale is still shaken from the June layoffs, but I can't worry about what I can't control. I'm continuing to increase my visibility and learn new skills. I'm still looking for a work use for Hadoop, but I'm enjoying using it to track the 50 day average of various stocks :) Spouse continues her great year, she knocked it out of the park again in August. Glad LOGM lets her fully fund her 401(k).
The market continued to shake off bad news, probably because the ECB is still publicly backing a wide scale bond buy program. China is expected to ease over the weekend, that may drive the movement early next week. The US market thinks the Fed will continue its ways because of the poor jobs report. I still haven't decided who to vote for in Nov. Whoever will get Congress working again will get my vote and that's probably the repub.
s&p: 1437.92
dow: 13306.64
10yr: 1.66%
VIX: 14.38
s&p P/E: 23.10
equity: 33%
bond: 30%
cash: 35%
1yr: 5.2%
After the 2nd qtr beat, not sure how the 3rd qtr will be. The macro environment is still 'up in the air' (pun). The public face is positive, CSNA programs our moving along and BH is doing well. My morale is still shaken from the June layoffs, but I can't worry about what I can't control. I'm continuing to increase my visibility and learn new skills. I'm still looking for a work use for Hadoop, but I'm enjoying using it to track the 50 day average of various stocks :) Spouse continues her great year, she knocked it out of the park again in August. Glad LOGM lets her fully fund her 401(k).
The market continued to shake off bad news, probably because the ECB is still publicly backing a wide scale bond buy program. China is expected to ease over the weekend, that may drive the movement early next week. The US market thinks the Fed will continue its ways because of the poor jobs report. I still haven't decided who to vote for in Nov. Whoever will get Congress working again will get my vote and that's probably the repub.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Q2 2012...
Where we're at:
DJIA: 12,822.57
s&p: 1362.66
10 yr: 1.46%
s&p P/E: 21.89
VIX: 16.27
equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35
1yr: 2.1%
The TXT earnings call was this week (19). TXT had a good quarter overall, including CSNA. An increase in jet deliveries bumped up earnings and profits vs 2011. Still, the call was cautious, the analysts seemed to be baiting the leadership to increase guidance, but there was nothing doing. It seems prudent given the state of the world economy now. There was also a lot of discussion towards the end about HBC and whether TXT had in interest. Some of the TXT message boards seem comical. The comments complain about the dividend. It appears that these people aren't paying attention. HELLO, TXT has a number of R&D and new programs ramping up simultaneously. The company is not going to raise the dividend AND rollout 3 new airplanes.
Spouse took two trips this month (Boston and Mexico City), she crushed it in June. But July will be a down month because she has been gone. I had my mid-year review, it went ok. I guess since I didn't get canned in June, does it really matter? The offshore team seems to be slacking off since 4 of them were cut, not sure they have much interest in our work anymore. Looking forward to vacation...
DJIA: 12,822.57
s&p: 1362.66
10 yr: 1.46%
s&p P/E: 21.89
VIX: 16.27
equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35
1yr: 2.1%
The TXT earnings call was this week (19). TXT had a good quarter overall, including CSNA. An increase in jet deliveries bumped up earnings and profits vs 2011. Still, the call was cautious, the analysts seemed to be baiting the leadership to increase guidance, but there was nothing doing. It seems prudent given the state of the world economy now. There was also a lot of discussion towards the end about HBC and whether TXT had in interest. Some of the TXT message boards seem comical. The comments complain about the dividend. It appears that these people aren't paying attention. HELLO, TXT has a number of R&D and new programs ramping up simultaneously. The company is not going to raise the dividend AND rollout 3 new airplanes.
Spouse took two trips this month (Boston and Mexico City), she crushed it in June. But July will be a down month because she has been gone. I had my mid-year review, it went ok. I guess since I didn't get canned in June, does it really matter? The offshore team seems to be slacking off since 4 of them were cut, not sure they have much interest in our work anymore. Looking forward to vacation...
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Again!?
Where we're at:
DJIA: 12,880.09
s&p: 1362.16
10 yr: 1.66%
s&p P/E: 21.88
VIX: 17.08
equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35
1yr: .1
Withiut warning, IT had another (4th in 3 years?) reduction, 10 people cut on 06/28. This one 'feels' different though, not just a cost reduction, but the 'business' saying "you people don't add any value, so you are GONE." Several long timers and several who were assigned to a particular project that doesn't seem to be going very well. Also in the month, 4 of the offshore people on my team were cut. They're fine, I'm sure. So, the layoff cloud moves back over and stays in place the rest of this year. I'm not too nervous but I think most people better be looking over their shoulder.
Europe decided to intice people to buy risk assets again on 06/29 by coming up with an agreement to loan money to recapitalize their banks. I rang the register twice this quarter on TXT, just reallocating within the overall portfolio.
DJIA: 12,880.09
s&p: 1362.16
10 yr: 1.66%
s&p P/E: 21.88
VIX: 17.08
equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35
1yr: .1
Withiut warning, IT had another (4th in 3 years?) reduction, 10 people cut on 06/28. This one 'feels' different though, not just a cost reduction, but the 'business' saying "you people don't add any value, so you are GONE." Several long timers and several who were assigned to a particular project that doesn't seem to be going very well. Also in the month, 4 of the offshore people on my team were cut. They're fine, I'm sure. So, the layoff cloud moves back over and stays in place the rest of this year. I'm not too nervous but I think most people better be looking over their shoulder.
Europe decided to intice people to buy risk assets again on 06/29 by coming up with an agreement to loan money to recapitalize their banks. I rang the register twice this quarter on TXT, just reallocating within the overall portfolio.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Ouch...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,369.38
S&P 500 1,295.22
10-Yr T-Note 1.70%
S&P P/E: 20.80
VIX: 25.10
equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36
1yr: 1.9%
It looks like Europe is going to bring the world economy down again for the 3rd year, S&P fell -4.3% this week. Oh well...I am going to go on a a little shopping spree. I'll add to our int'ls, high-yield bonds, and REITS, a little here and there as we step down from these levels. My job is like a 'small cap stock', so I can't go crazy. TXT came back down to earth as well. I'll wait for some support and then sell to my desired allocation. It looks like the "big boys" exercised some options in February. I think I'll keep an eye on their activity more in the future.
Our group is cutting loose 4 of the off-shore team to trim our 2012 budget. I'm sad to see them go, but they'll be fine, I'm sure the firm has work for them. But, this may lead to more interesting work for peer and myself. We'll have to see. I'm continuing to gain experience in Hadoop, good for current and future opportunities, I think. No changes to vacation plans in August.
DJIA 12,369.38
S&P 500 1,295.22
10-Yr T-Note 1.70%
S&P P/E: 20.80
VIX: 25.10
equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36
1yr: 1.9%
It looks like Europe is going to bring the world economy down again for the 3rd year, S&P fell -4.3% this week. Oh well...I am going to go on a a little shopping spree. I'll add to our int'ls, high-yield bonds, and REITS, a little here and there as we step down from these levels. My job is like a 'small cap stock', so I can't go crazy. TXT came back down to earth as well. I'll wait for some support and then sell to my desired allocation. It looks like the "big boys" exercised some options in February. I think I'll keep an eye on their activity more in the future.
Our group is cutting loose 4 of the off-shore team to trim our 2012 budget. I'm sad to see them go, but they'll be fine, I'm sure the firm has work for them. But, this may lead to more interesting work for peer and myself. We'll have to see. I'm continuing to gain experience in Hadoop, good for current and future opportunities, I think. No changes to vacation plans in August.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Finally...
Where we're at:
dow: 12,820.60
s&p: 1,353.39
10yr: 1.84%
s&p P/E: 22.56
VIX: 19.89
equity: 31%
bond: 33%
cash: 36%
1yr: 3.5%
Wow, I finally made it, vested. It feels good, all 401(k) match is mine, plus a pension benefit. The first quarter was better than 2011, but CSNA still lost money. The call sounded better than last year, but who knows. For the third year, Europe decides to rain on the world's parade in April/May. Hiring is still sparse, but stable (so far). This summer, we'll celebrate the fact that we both have jobs by taking a real vacation. Our bathroom remodel is done, so no more home upgrades for awhile.
Spouse is doing well, the LOGM acquisition seems to suit her and her work style. The market seems to find a floor around 12,900 (dow). While EUR is down, I'm taking this opportunity to pick up some more int'l stocks to get back to our target allocation. I'd like to exchange some corp bonds for some high yield, but they seem a bit pricey, so I'll wait.
dow: 12,820.60
s&p: 1,353.39
10yr: 1.84%
s&p P/E: 22.56
VIX: 19.89
equity: 31%
bond: 33%
cash: 36%
1yr: 3.5%
Wow, I finally made it, vested. It feels good, all 401(k) match is mine, plus a pension benefit. The first quarter was better than 2011, but CSNA still lost money. The call sounded better than last year, but who knows. For the third year, Europe decides to rain on the world's parade in April/May. Hiring is still sparse, but stable (so far). This summer, we'll celebrate the fact that we both have jobs by taking a real vacation. Our bathroom remodel is done, so no more home upgrades for awhile.
Spouse is doing well, the LOGM acquisition seems to suit her and her work style. The market seems to find a floor around 12,900 (dow). While EUR is down, I'm taking this opportunity to pick up some more int'l stocks to get back to our target allocation. I'd like to exchange some corp bonds for some high yield, but they seem a bit pricey, so I'll wait.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
higher interest rates..?
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
mid May 2009
Where we're at:
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
more bad news...
Where we're at:
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
run up for TXT
Where we're at
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
good news..bad news
Where we are:
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
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