Where we're at:
DJIA 12,810.54
S&P 500 1,363.61
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 24.1
VIX: 14.75
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
Best April since 2007 and up DOW 4% for the month. I'll continue to monitor our small caps and "ring the register" if VBK gets over $90. So far, I've pulled out ~$6,000. Car expenses in May will put off our bathroom remodel but we'll get it done over the summer. Spouse is uptight about her first company review. I think she is over reacting, but she is so intimidated by her manager. We'll see.
CSNA is continuing to trim from the top, apparently a marketing shake up happened this week. Maybe we'll hear more later. Lead is letting me participate on a new project and I get to attend a training class in May. 2 more weeks until my 4 yr, then 75% vested and 3 weeks of vacation. Still think 50% chance to make 5....
Friday, April 29, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
six sigma certified...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,341.83
S&P 500 1,319.68
10-Yr T-Note 3.41%
VIX: 15.32
s&p P/E: 23.32
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
This week I finished my six sigma cert, on time. I took my mentor to lunch yesterday to thank him for his help. He seems like he is doing ok. The TXT 1st quarter conference call is next week, it will be interesting to hear Donnelly's tone. Mentor said he was pleasantly surprised by the order numbers so far this year. Not great, but better. I'll turn my focus back on mining now that SS is done. It was interesting to hear the the MBB BI comments yesterday about the dashboards that have been rolled out. They don't seem to be being used.
I continue to 'hunker down' and stay prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. My raise kicked in this period (nice). We'll do some more work around the house, but we're not taking a vacation due to high gas prices and we want to save for a nice one next year. Cruise or fly to a coast and sit on the beach.
DJIA 12,341.83
S&P 500 1,319.68
10-Yr T-Note 3.41%
VIX: 15.32
s&p P/E: 23.32
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
This week I finished my six sigma cert, on time. I took my mentor to lunch yesterday to thank him for his help. He seems like he is doing ok. The TXT 1st quarter conference call is next week, it will be interesting to hear Donnelly's tone. Mentor said he was pleasantly surprised by the order numbers so far this year. Not great, but better. I'll turn my focus back on mining now that SS is done. It was interesting to hear the the MBB BI comments yesterday about the dashboards that have been rolled out. They don't seem to be being used.
I continue to 'hunker down' and stay prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. My raise kicked in this period (nice). We'll do some more work around the house, but we're not taking a vacation due to high gas prices and we want to save for a nice one next year. Cruise or fly to a coast and sit on the beach.
Saturday, April 02, 2011
what a quarter...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,376.72
S&P 500 1,332.41
10-Yr T-Note 3.45%
s&p P/E: 24.13
VIX: 17.40
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr: 8.1
The market is again shrugging off bad news (JPN nuke, Middle East) and concentrating on better domestic news (> job creation and slightly higher employment). It still seems like we're in the 'fed trade'. Buy risk, because risk less does not pay. I have one more IRA deposit for spouse's account (2010), then we're stopping for awhile. My plan is to make a bulk deposit into each of our accounts for cash and then wait for a drop. The 500 P/E is starting to make me nervous, not enough to sell, but definitely to buy.
I should finish my six sigma work this coming week and take my exam the following week. That will make my goal of obtaining the cert by my 4th anniversary. I'm almost comfortable enough to say I'll make it, but not quite. The layoff rumors are starting again, but the source is not reliable, so who knows. My gut says I'm safe for 2011, but who knows for 2012. It helps that there are only 2 of us.
DJIA 12,376.72
S&P 500 1,332.41
10-Yr T-Note 3.45%
s&p P/E: 24.13
VIX: 17.40
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr: 8.1
The market is again shrugging off bad news (JPN nuke, Middle East) and concentrating on better domestic news (> job creation and slightly higher employment). It still seems like we're in the 'fed trade'. Buy risk, because risk less does not pay. I have one more IRA deposit for spouse's account (2010), then we're stopping for awhile. My plan is to make a bulk deposit into each of our accounts for cash and then wait for a drop. The 500 P/E is starting to make me nervous, not enough to sell, but definitely to buy.
I should finish my six sigma work this coming week and take my exam the following week. That will make my goal of obtaining the cert by my 4th anniversary. I'm almost comfortable enough to say I'll make it, but not quite. The layoff rumors are starting again, but the source is not reliable, so who knows. My gut says I'm safe for 2011, but who knows for 2012. It helps that there are only 2 of us.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
events catching up with market...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,858.52
S&P 500 1,279.20
10-Yr T-Note 3.28%
s&p P/E: 23.17
VIX: 24.44
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1yr: 9.7%
The middle east and the turmoil in JPN finally knocked the market back a bit, but not enough for me to buy. It still seems overvalued and time for a 5-10% pullback. So, I'll continue to wait. I'm close on my six sigma project, by the time for my next entry the project will be done and I should certify in April. I'm feeling confident about making 4 years with TXT, but still give my odds at 50/50 for 5 years.
I'm still trying to figure our manager out. When we had a lead, he seemed content to bark out orders and expect them to be followed, now he wants recommendations. I may need to have a one-on-one for clarification. Our IT shop continues to trickle staff out, most seem to head for another aerospace shop. We were told that IT would have no new head count for 3 years, but staff leaving will be replaced. In a macabre way, it's better for the rest of us.
DJIA 11,858.52
S&P 500 1,279.20
10-Yr T-Note 3.28%
s&p P/E: 23.17
VIX: 24.44
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1yr: 9.7%
The middle east and the turmoil in JPN finally knocked the market back a bit, but not enough for me to buy. It still seems overvalued and time for a 5-10% pullback. So, I'll continue to wait. I'm close on my six sigma project, by the time for my next entry the project will be done and I should certify in April. I'm feeling confident about making 4 years with TXT, but still give my odds at 50/50 for 5 years.
I'm still trying to figure our manager out. When we had a lead, he seemed content to bark out orders and expect them to be followed, now he wants recommendations. I may need to have a one-on-one for clarification. Our IT shop continues to trickle staff out, most seem to head for another aerospace shop. We were told that IT would have no new head count for 3 years, but staff leaving will be replaced. In a macabre way, it's better for the rest of us.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
market beginning to struggle...
Status
DJIA 12,169.88
S&P 500 1,321.15
10-Yr T-Note 3.49%
s&p P/E 23.93
VIX 19.06
equity 32
bond 32
cash 38
1 yr: 9.7%
The market is beginning to show signs of struggling just as stragglers continue to buy. Between uncertainty about the future of QEx and the middle east, we're up one day and down the next. Oil is back over $100 / barrel and may choke off the US recovery. For us, I'm glad we have our bonds and cash. We've had a good run and I (still) look for a 5-10% drop. When that happens, I'll put some spouse IRA money to work. But I 'm not looking to sell any of our positions. I like all of our holdings.
Spouse's work is really moving along. CSNA is "same old, same old", more depressing aircraft stats. But, I'm hanging in there and I must be there for a reason. We may not take a vacation if gas goes over $3.50 / gallon, just like 2008. With my bike and a new rack, I'm content to drive around the area and get rides in. Still trying to make it until May and get to 4 years. I think I'll have lunch with my previous boss to get some insight on the current one. Still trying to figure him out. Six sigma work is almost done, I'm pushing towards a 3/31 goal.
DJIA 12,169.88
S&P 500 1,321.15
10-Yr T-Note 3.49%
s&p P/E 23.93
VIX 19.06
equity 32
bond 32
cash 38
1 yr: 9.7%
The market is beginning to show signs of struggling just as stragglers continue to buy. Between uncertainty about the future of QEx and the middle east, we're up one day and down the next. Oil is back over $100 / barrel and may choke off the US recovery. For us, I'm glad we have our bonds and cash. We've had a good run and I (still) look for a 5-10% drop. When that happens, I'll put some spouse IRA money to work. But I 'm not looking to sell any of our positions. I like all of our holdings.
Spouse's work is really moving along. CSNA is "same old, same old", more depressing aircraft stats. But, I'm hanging in there and I must be there for a reason. We may not take a vacation if gas goes over $3.50 / gallon, just like 2008. With my bike and a new rack, I'm content to drive around the area and get rides in. Still trying to make it until May and get to 4 years. I think I'll have lunch with my previous boss to get some insight on the current one. Still trying to figure him out. Six sigma work is almost done, I'm pushing towards a 3/31 goal.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
onward and upward..
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,391.25
S&P 500 1,343.01
10-Yr T-Note 3.59%
VIX 16.43
s&p P/E: 24.33
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 6%
The dow and s&p went up for the 3rd straight week. More and more personal investors seem to be getting off the sidelines and back into the market. That can't be a good sign. I'm still waiting for a 10-20% drop. Even TXT is having a nice run, but I'm glad I took some profits last month. I'll hold on until I get back to 15% of 401k.
I had a six sigma status meeting yesterday that went well. I'm on track to finish up my April. The weather has been cooperating and we've been able to ride this weekend. We're both getting anxious to ride more this spring. Next month, we'll pay some property taxes, buy a bike rack, and maybe a new patio sliding door for the house. Still cautiously optimistic, but waiting for more financial results from TXT.
DJIA 12,391.25
S&P 500 1,343.01
10-Yr T-Note 3.59%
VIX 16.43
s&p P/E: 24.33
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 6%
The dow and s&p went up for the 3rd straight week. More and more personal investors seem to be getting off the sidelines and back into the market. That can't be a good sign. I'm still waiting for a 10-20% drop. Even TXT is having a nice run, but I'm glad I took some profits last month. I'll hold on until I get back to 15% of 401k.
I had a six sigma status meeting yesterday that went well. I'm on track to finish up my April. The weather has been cooperating and we've been able to ride this weekend. We're both getting anxious to ride more this spring. Next month, we'll pay some property taxes, buy a bike rack, and maybe a new patio sliding door for the house. Still cautiously optimistic, but waiting for more financial results from TXT.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
dow 12,000....
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,092.15
S&P 500 1,310.87
10-Yr T-Note 3.65%
VIX: 15.93
s&p P/E: 24
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 5.82%
The little market that could. All the pundits predict a correction, but the market is having none of it. Our US stocks continue to exceed my expectations and frustrate me from buying more, bonds are finally reacting to the Fed and economic growth expectations, the 10 year lept up to 3.65. Non US is behind but not by much, YTD +2.7 vs +4.25 for US.
Work is going along, the 4th quarter TXT call was cautiously optimistic, like last year. The rumor is all of the production furloughs have been cancelled, but I don't trust the source, so we'll see. A more reliable source says no salary furloughs in 2011. I'm becoming more optimistic that I'll make 4 years, but still not sure about 5. Spouse is doing well, she finished 2010 with a bang and seems to be getting the trust of her mgmt. Our taxes aren't as bad as I thought, the HSA really helps (a nice benefit from TXT). No refund, but with low liability, it's like a refund. However, I'd rather pay more and earn more interest on our cash. Maybe someday....
DJIA 12,092.15
S&P 500 1,310.87
10-Yr T-Note 3.65%
VIX: 15.93
s&p P/E: 24
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 5.82%
The little market that could. All the pundits predict a correction, but the market is having none of it. Our US stocks continue to exceed my expectations and frustrate me from buying more, bonds are finally reacting to the Fed and economic growth expectations, the 10 year lept up to 3.65. Non US is behind but not by much, YTD +2.7 vs +4.25 for US.
Work is going along, the 4th quarter TXT call was cautiously optimistic, like last year. The rumor is all of the production furloughs have been cancelled, but I don't trust the source, so we'll see. A more reliable source says no salary furloughs in 2011. I'm becoming more optimistic that I'll make 4 years, but still not sure about 5. Spouse is doing well, she finished 2010 with a bang and seems to be getting the trust of her mgmt. Our taxes aren't as bad as I thought, the HSA really helps (a nice benefit from TXT). No refund, but with low liability, it's like a refund. However, I'd rather pay more and earn more interest on our cash. Maybe someday....
Monday, January 17, 2011
2010 PMP...
Where we're at
DJIA 11,787.38
s&p 1293.24
10yr 3.33%
VIX 15:46
s&p P/E 23.68
equity 31
bind 31
cash 38
1 yr 5%
Last week I had my last review with my previous supervisor. It went well, he had positive comments and recommended that I be promoted, I don't see that happening, but I'm feeling a bit more confident about making my 4 yr anniversary (May). If I make it, I'll be 25% more vested and start earning 3 weeks of time off. He met with me and my peer this week and mentioned a positive Dec and he does not foresee salary furloughs for 2011. I feel more confident than I have for 3 years. Hopefully, it won't be like last year. I'll take it slow financially until after the first two calls in Jan and April.
We got the 'green light' to begin a upgrade to 11g, that should help my marketability in case the ax does fall. I'll continue to work on data mining, but at a slower pace. I've reached the end of what I can absorb without more project work or in class training. I'll also finish my six sigma project and my cert this year. This year we'll remodel our main bathroom and save for new exterior windows. We're also thinking about a nice vacation.
DJIA 11,787.38
s&p 1293.24
10yr 3.33%
VIX 15:46
s&p P/E 23.68
equity 31
bind 31
cash 38
1 yr 5%
Last week I had my last review with my previous supervisor. It went well, he had positive comments and recommended that I be promoted, I don't see that happening, but I'm feeling a bit more confident about making my 4 yr anniversary (May). If I make it, I'll be 25% more vested and start earning 3 weeks of time off. He met with me and my peer this week and mentioned a positive Dec and he does not foresee salary furloughs for 2011. I feel more confident than I have for 3 years. Hopefully, it won't be like last year. I'll take it slow financially until after the first two calls in Jan and April.
We got the 'green light' to begin a upgrade to 11g, that should help my marketability in case the ax does fall. I'll continue to work on data mining, but at a slower pace. I've reached the end of what I can absorb without more project work or in class training. I'll also finish my six sigma project and my cert this year. This year we'll remodel our main bathroom and save for new exterior windows. We're also thinking about a nice vacation.
Saturday, January 01, 2011
Goodbye 2010...
Wow what a 4 month period, the s&p started September at 1049.72 and finished the year at 1257.64 up 208 points. The jump put a damper on my investment plans. I wanted to allocate spouse's rollover money into stocks, but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I sense some bull market capitulation, so I'll hold off until a correction. We have gone almost straight up for 4 months, so it's due.
What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.
What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.
2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.
Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed
Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.
What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.
What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.
2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.
Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed
Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Christmas 2010....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,573.49
S&P 500 1,256.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.39%
s&p P/E: 22.95
VIX: 16.47
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.81%
CSNA started their break on 12/24. I finally found the road bike that I've been looking for on the net. It looks great and has quality components, hopefully I'll love it. The place was dead on Thursday, a peer and I worked and left around 13:00. We had lunch with our laid off peer on Wednesday, he has found another job and seems very happy. It was the first time we saw him since early October. I'll stay in touch in case I need to look for something in 2011.
We had a good year in spite of the US economy. I must have done enough of the right things to stay employed, I'll continue to learn about mining and finish my six sigma cert. Right now, I just want to make to May 2012. By not acting emotionally, our portfolio recovered and even eeked out a small gain. The only regret I have is not reinvesting spouse's rolled over IRA, but who knew, the market was and still seems to be overvalued. I'll be patient and get in on a correction, which I'm confident will happen in 2011. We've had 3 straight up months and are due.
DJIA 11,573.49
S&P 500 1,256.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.39%
s&p P/E: 22.95
VIX: 16.47
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.81%
CSNA started their break on 12/24. I finally found the road bike that I've been looking for on the net. It looks great and has quality components, hopefully I'll love it. The place was dead on Thursday, a peer and I worked and left around 13:00. We had lunch with our laid off peer on Wednesday, he has found another job and seems very happy. It was the first time we saw him since early October. I'll stay in touch in case I need to look for something in 2011.
We had a good year in spite of the US economy. I must have done enough of the right things to stay employed, I'll continue to learn about mining and finish my six sigma cert. Right now, I just want to make to May 2012. By not acting emotionally, our portfolio recovered and even eeked out a small gain. The only regret I have is not reinvesting spouse's rolled over IRA, but who knew, the market was and still seems to be overvalued. I'll be patient and get in on a correction, which I'm confident will happen in 2011. We've had 3 straight up months and are due.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Bonds prices take a tumble....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,410.32
S&P 500 1,240.40
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 22.65
VIX: 17.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr 4.75%
The 10 year note spiked above 3.00 for the first time since June. The Bond Bullies seem to want to give the Fed a message. I hope they're listening. CSNA's CIO is leaving for TXT and the TXT CTO is coming here. So, who knows if all of her realigning will be dismantled. The 4th quarter has been good, I have been able to work all 3 months, something I had planned for in case it did not work out.
The new lead seems a bit more open minded than I thought, we'll see how the PMP process plays out next year. I have started the countdown to my 5 year anniversary at TXT, I hope I make it. I put my odds at 50%.
DJIA 11,410.32
S&P 500 1,240.40
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 22.65
VIX: 17.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr 4.75%
The 10 year note spiked above 3.00 for the first time since June. The Bond Bullies seem to want to give the Fed a message. I hope they're listening. CSNA's CIO is leaving for TXT and the TXT CTO is coming here. So, who knows if all of her realigning will be dismantled. The 4th quarter has been good, I have been able to work all 3 months, something I had planned for in case it did not work out.
The new lead seems a bit more open minded than I thought, we'll see how the PMP process plays out next year. I have started the countdown to my 5 year anniversary at TXT, I hope I make it. I put my odds at 50%.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Thanksgiving 2010...
Where we're at:
Dow: 11092
s&p 500: 1189.40
10 yr: 2.8640%
s&p P/E: 21.69
vix: 22.22
equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4.18%
4 days off, including the weekend, yahoo! Well, we've worked for the benovolent dictator for about 2 weeks now and we're slowly adjusting to his style. I'm still not sure about him, but for now I'm trying to make it to May 2012 (5 yrs and vested). The rumor is October continued the downward spiral as far as the financials went. Hopefully, that was planned for. The production furloughs have been announced, but that's all. I'll still plan for a furlough in 2011 and possibly more layoffs. We're continuing to hold back on major things for ourselves.
A MS fixed income plan clued me into convertible bonds, so I'm going to move some bond gains over to convertibles and move down some in quality and up in yield with some potential for a stock gain when the bonds are converted. I'll start with a fixed price entry point about $2 below the current price. I'm also looking for an entry point for small cap non-US stocks so I'm prowling around until a mild correction to enter.
Dow: 11092
s&p 500: 1189.40
10 yr: 2.8640%
s&p P/E: 21.69
vix: 22.22
equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4.18%
4 days off, including the weekend, yahoo! Well, we've worked for the benovolent dictator for about 2 weeks now and we're slowly adjusting to his style. I'm still not sure about him, but for now I'm trying to make it to May 2012 (5 yrs and vested). The rumor is October continued the downward spiral as far as the financials went. Hopefully, that was planned for. The production furloughs have been announced, but that's all. I'll still plan for a furlough in 2011 and possibly more layoffs. We're continuing to hold back on major things for ourselves.
A MS fixed income plan clued me into convertible bonds, so I'm going to move some bond gains over to convertibles and move down some in quality and up in yield with some potential for a stock gain when the bonds are converted. I'll start with a fixed price entry point about $2 below the current price. I'm also looking for an entry point for small cap non-US stocks so I'm prowling around until a mild correction to enter.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
new boss....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,192.58
S&P 500 1,199.21
10-Yr T-Note 2.76%
s&p P/E: 21.87
VIX: 20.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5%
Well, our lead is off to bigger and better and we report to the self described "benevolent dictator". He was joking, but I'm taking him seriously. We'll see how it goes. Officially, no back-office furloughs for 2010. We'll see about 2011. I'm focusing on keeping a positive attitude, getting what I can out of TXT, and getting vested. Spouse continues to rock on.
We had a dip this week as the market digests the mid-terms and QE2. Interests rates are perking up on the intermediate and long end, so we'll have to watch. EWC hit my target last week, so I sold my position. I should get more CND exposure at the beginning of 2011 when VGTSX is reconfigured to its new target index.
DJIA 11,192.58
S&P 500 1,199.21
10-Yr T-Note 2.76%
s&p P/E: 21.87
VIX: 20.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5%
Well, our lead is off to bigger and better and we report to the self described "benevolent dictator". He was joking, but I'm taking him seriously. We'll see how it goes. Officially, no back-office furloughs for 2010. We'll see about 2011. I'm focusing on keeping a positive attitude, getting what I can out of TXT, and getting vested. Spouse continues to rock on.
We had a dip this week as the market digests the mid-terms and QE2. Interests rates are perking up on the intermediate and long end, so we'll have to watch. EWC hit my target last week, so I sold my position. I should get more CND exposure at the beginning of 2011 when VGTSX is reconfigured to its new target index.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
layoff drizzle...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5.0%
The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.
The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.
DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5.0%
The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.
The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
dodged a bullet (part 3)....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.2%
Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.
As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.
DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.2%
Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.
As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
More Layoffs.....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4%
What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.
On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.
DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4%
What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.
On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
No Strike...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,607.85
S&P 500 1,125.59
10-Yr T-Note 2.75%
s&p P/E: 20.56
VIX: 22.01
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 3%
The local machinists voted yesterday to reject CSNA's offer, but didn't have the votes to strike, so they will live with a 7 year deal. Glad that's over with, but now we wait and see how production and jobs are cut for 2011. I'm not worrying about what I don't control. Still no word on the IT reorg. The CIO is out next week, so probably no movement until the end of Sept. I was confident that our lead was going to get promoted, but now I'm not so sure. Surely people notice how much he is gone and that he comes in at 9:00 and leaves by 4:00 most days. Oh well.....
This weekend we (mostly spouse) attended a seminar on employment opportunities for special needs adults. It was very good. We also went on a tour of places that will assist those folks with working.
DJIA 10,607.85
S&P 500 1,125.59
10-Yr T-Note 2.75%
s&p P/E: 20.56
VIX: 22.01
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 3%
The local machinists voted yesterday to reject CSNA's offer, but didn't have the votes to strike, so they will live with a 7 year deal. Glad that's over with, but now we wait and see how production and jobs are cut for 2011. I'm not worrying about what I don't control. Still no word on the IT reorg. The CIO is out next week, so probably no movement until the end of Sept. I was confident that our lead was going to get promoted, but now I'm not so sure. Surely people notice how much he is gone and that he comes in at 9:00 and leaves by 4:00 most days. Oh well.....
This weekend we (mostly spouse) attended a seminar on employment opportunities for special needs adults. It was very good. We also went on a tour of places that will assist those folks with working.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
September 4 2010....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,447.93
S&P 500 1,104.51
10-Yr T-Note 2.71%
VIX 21.31
s&p P/E: 20.28
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr 3.57%
Happy 49th to me. I drew the short straw and am on call this weekend, but that's ok. Perhaps I'll score some points with the group lead. Our team lead will probably learn his promotion fate this upcoming week. I still think he has a good chance to go up. It's a toss up what will happen to us, but I think we'll report directly to the group lead. Some pros and cons with that. Regardless there are some things he won't want to do that will roll downhill plus our rotation will only be 4 people.
The market had a bounce this week, ~65,000 net jobs created so it celebrated. Seems wacky, but it wants to go up on ANY good news. Two years and counting since Lehman Bros failed and jumpstarted this mess...
DJIA 10,447.93
S&P 500 1,104.51
10-Yr T-Note 2.71%
VIX 21.31
s&p P/E: 20.28
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr 3.57%
Happy 49th to me. I drew the short straw and am on call this weekend, but that's ok. Perhaps I'll score some points with the group lead. Our team lead will probably learn his promotion fate this upcoming week. I still think he has a good chance to go up. It's a toss up what will happen to us, but I think we'll report directly to the group lead. Some pros and cons with that. Regardless there are some things he won't want to do that will roll downhill plus our rotation will only be 4 people.
The market had a bounce this week, ~65,000 net jobs created so it celebrated. Seems wacky, but it wants to go up on ANY good news. Two years and counting since Lehman Bros failed and jumpstarted this mess...
Saturday, August 21, 2010
downward spiral resumes....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,213.62
S&P 500 1,071.69
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 19.68
VIX: 25.49
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
The deadline for the new IT positions passed and I have heard of a few people who applied, including our team lead. I think he has a good chance to get one of the 3 manager spots under our director. I'd like to go for his current spot if that happens, but who knows. I think we will wind up reporting to the the architect. The contract talks started this week. I can't the union people striking, unless they want to kill the company. They know that if they strike, they can all be replaced, probably easily. The language is starting to get dark again (low orders, continued cancellations). I'm trying to not worry about what I don't control.
Health, family, home, job, investments in that order.
DJIA 10,213.62
S&P 500 1,071.69
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 19.68
VIX: 25.49
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
The deadline for the new IT positions passed and I have heard of a few people who applied, including our team lead. I think he has a good chance to get one of the 3 manager spots under our director. I'd like to go for his current spot if that happens, but who knows. I think we will wind up reporting to the the architect. The contract talks started this week. I can't the union people striking, unless they want to kill the company. They know that if they strike, they can all be replaced, probably easily. The language is starting to get dark again (low orders, continued cancellations). I'm trying to not worry about what I don't control.
Health, family, home, job, investments in that order.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
double-dip...?
DJIA 10,653.56
S&P 500 1,121.64
10-Yr T-Note 2.82%
s&p P/E 20.41
VIX: 21.74
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr: 6%
We took a quick vacation this year to Taos, NM. While we were gone, the market tried to rally, running up several hundred points. After the July jobs report, it came back down early, but recovered for a small loss. The talking heads are sounding more like a double dip recession is likely. Another local aircraft company is threatening to move jobs to a lower cost state due to the state of the market. The Friday before our vacation our IT director brought us together for a meeting to discuss changes in the department. Three management jobs are opening up and she is getting the teams that report to them. She was almost giddy with excitement. The teams are being moved from another director, my guess is he's not pleased. It may be a sign that he needs to move on.
My bet is our lead will either leave or transfer out within 6 months. I've had a feeling about him for awhile, but it's pretty strong now. That would probably mean we'd all report to one guy (the architect). Which is probably how it should be. The guy only has 3 reports now. This place continues to be fat in head count, if things don't improve, more furloughs and/or layoffs will come. I think the shop could get by with under 100 staff. I think that would cut about 40 more people. I had my mid-year that Friday as well, it went ok. I still seem safe for now.
S&P 500 1,121.64
10-Yr T-Note 2.82%
s&p P/E 20.41
VIX: 21.74
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr: 6%
We took a quick vacation this year to Taos, NM. While we were gone, the market tried to rally, running up several hundred points. After the July jobs report, it came back down early, but recovered for a small loss. The talking heads are sounding more like a double dip recession is likely. Another local aircraft company is threatening to move jobs to a lower cost state due to the state of the market. The Friday before our vacation our IT director brought us together for a meeting to discuss changes in the department. Three management jobs are opening up and she is getting the teams that report to them. She was almost giddy with excitement. The teams are being moved from another director, my guess is he's not pleased. It may be a sign that he needs to move on.
My bet is our lead will either leave or transfer out within 6 months. I've had a feeling about him for awhile, but it's pretty strong now. That would probably mean we'd all report to one guy (the architect). Which is probably how it should be. The guy only has 3 reports now. This place continues to be fat in head count, if things don't improve, more furloughs and/or layoffs will come. I think the shop could get by with under 100 staff. I think that would cut about 40 more people. I had my mid-year that Friday as well, it went ok. I still seem safe for now.
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