Wow what a 4 month period, the s&p started September at 1049.72 and finished the year at 1257.64 up 208 points. The jump put a damper on my investment plans. I wanted to allocate spouse's rollover money into stocks, but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I sense some bull market capitulation, so I'll hold off until a correction. We have gone almost straight up for 4 months, so it's due.
What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.
What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.
2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.
Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed
Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.
Saturday, January 01, 2011
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Christmas 2010....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,573.49
S&P 500 1,256.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.39%
s&p P/E: 22.95
VIX: 16.47
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.81%
CSNA started their break on 12/24. I finally found the road bike that I've been looking for on the net. It looks great and has quality components, hopefully I'll love it. The place was dead on Thursday, a peer and I worked and left around 13:00. We had lunch with our laid off peer on Wednesday, he has found another job and seems very happy. It was the first time we saw him since early October. I'll stay in touch in case I need to look for something in 2011.
We had a good year in spite of the US economy. I must have done enough of the right things to stay employed, I'll continue to learn about mining and finish my six sigma cert. Right now, I just want to make to May 2012. By not acting emotionally, our portfolio recovered and even eeked out a small gain. The only regret I have is not reinvesting spouse's rolled over IRA, but who knew, the market was and still seems to be overvalued. I'll be patient and get in on a correction, which I'm confident will happen in 2011. We've had 3 straight up months and are due.
DJIA 11,573.49
S&P 500 1,256.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.39%
s&p P/E: 22.95
VIX: 16.47
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.81%
CSNA started their break on 12/24. I finally found the road bike that I've been looking for on the net. It looks great and has quality components, hopefully I'll love it. The place was dead on Thursday, a peer and I worked and left around 13:00. We had lunch with our laid off peer on Wednesday, he has found another job and seems very happy. It was the first time we saw him since early October. I'll stay in touch in case I need to look for something in 2011.
We had a good year in spite of the US economy. I must have done enough of the right things to stay employed, I'll continue to learn about mining and finish my six sigma cert. Right now, I just want to make to May 2012. By not acting emotionally, our portfolio recovered and even eeked out a small gain. The only regret I have is not reinvesting spouse's rolled over IRA, but who knew, the market was and still seems to be overvalued. I'll be patient and get in on a correction, which I'm confident will happen in 2011. We've had 3 straight up months and are due.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Bonds prices take a tumble....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,410.32
S&P 500 1,240.40
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 22.65
VIX: 17.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr 4.75%
The 10 year note spiked above 3.00 for the first time since June. The Bond Bullies seem to want to give the Fed a message. I hope they're listening. CSNA's CIO is leaving for TXT and the TXT CTO is coming here. So, who knows if all of her realigning will be dismantled. The 4th quarter has been good, I have been able to work all 3 months, something I had planned for in case it did not work out.
The new lead seems a bit more open minded than I thought, we'll see how the PMP process plays out next year. I have started the countdown to my 5 year anniversary at TXT, I hope I make it. I put my odds at 50%.
DJIA 11,410.32
S&P 500 1,240.40
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 22.65
VIX: 17.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr 4.75%
The 10 year note spiked above 3.00 for the first time since June. The Bond Bullies seem to want to give the Fed a message. I hope they're listening. CSNA's CIO is leaving for TXT and the TXT CTO is coming here. So, who knows if all of her realigning will be dismantled. The 4th quarter has been good, I have been able to work all 3 months, something I had planned for in case it did not work out.
The new lead seems a bit more open minded than I thought, we'll see how the PMP process plays out next year. I have started the countdown to my 5 year anniversary at TXT, I hope I make it. I put my odds at 50%.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Thanksgiving 2010...
Where we're at:
Dow: 11092
s&p 500: 1189.40
10 yr: 2.8640%
s&p P/E: 21.69
vix: 22.22
equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4.18%
4 days off, including the weekend, yahoo! Well, we've worked for the benovolent dictator for about 2 weeks now and we're slowly adjusting to his style. I'm still not sure about him, but for now I'm trying to make it to May 2012 (5 yrs and vested). The rumor is October continued the downward spiral as far as the financials went. Hopefully, that was planned for. The production furloughs have been announced, but that's all. I'll still plan for a furlough in 2011 and possibly more layoffs. We're continuing to hold back on major things for ourselves.
A MS fixed income plan clued me into convertible bonds, so I'm going to move some bond gains over to convertibles and move down some in quality and up in yield with some potential for a stock gain when the bonds are converted. I'll start with a fixed price entry point about $2 below the current price. I'm also looking for an entry point for small cap non-US stocks so I'm prowling around until a mild correction to enter.
Dow: 11092
s&p 500: 1189.40
10 yr: 2.8640%
s&p P/E: 21.69
vix: 22.22
equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4.18%
4 days off, including the weekend, yahoo! Well, we've worked for the benovolent dictator for about 2 weeks now and we're slowly adjusting to his style. I'm still not sure about him, but for now I'm trying to make it to May 2012 (5 yrs and vested). The rumor is October continued the downward spiral as far as the financials went. Hopefully, that was planned for. The production furloughs have been announced, but that's all. I'll still plan for a furlough in 2011 and possibly more layoffs. We're continuing to hold back on major things for ourselves.
A MS fixed income plan clued me into convertible bonds, so I'm going to move some bond gains over to convertibles and move down some in quality and up in yield with some potential for a stock gain when the bonds are converted. I'll start with a fixed price entry point about $2 below the current price. I'm also looking for an entry point for small cap non-US stocks so I'm prowling around until a mild correction to enter.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
new boss....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,192.58
S&P 500 1,199.21
10-Yr T-Note 2.76%
s&p P/E: 21.87
VIX: 20.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5%
Well, our lead is off to bigger and better and we report to the self described "benevolent dictator". He was joking, but I'm taking him seriously. We'll see how it goes. Officially, no back-office furloughs for 2010. We'll see about 2011. I'm focusing on keeping a positive attitude, getting what I can out of TXT, and getting vested. Spouse continues to rock on.
We had a dip this week as the market digests the mid-terms and QE2. Interests rates are perking up on the intermediate and long end, so we'll have to watch. EWC hit my target last week, so I sold my position. I should get more CND exposure at the beginning of 2011 when VGTSX is reconfigured to its new target index.
DJIA 11,192.58
S&P 500 1,199.21
10-Yr T-Note 2.76%
s&p P/E: 21.87
VIX: 20.61
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5%
Well, our lead is off to bigger and better and we report to the self described "benevolent dictator". He was joking, but I'm taking him seriously. We'll see how it goes. Officially, no back-office furloughs for 2010. We'll see about 2011. I'm focusing on keeping a positive attitude, getting what I can out of TXT, and getting vested. Spouse continues to rock on.
We had a dip this week as the market digests the mid-terms and QE2. Interests rates are perking up on the intermediate and long end, so we'll have to watch. EWC hit my target last week, so I sold my position. I should get more CND exposure at the beginning of 2011 when VGTSX is reconfigured to its new target index.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
layoff drizzle...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5.0%
The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.
The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.
DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 5.0%
The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.
The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
dodged a bullet (part 3)....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.2%
Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.
As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.
DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.2%
Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.
As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.
Saturday, October 02, 2010
More Layoffs.....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4%
What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.
On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.
DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38
1 yr: 4%
What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.
On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
No Strike...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,607.85
S&P 500 1,125.59
10-Yr T-Note 2.75%
s&p P/E: 20.56
VIX: 22.01
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 3%
The local machinists voted yesterday to reject CSNA's offer, but didn't have the votes to strike, so they will live with a 7 year deal. Glad that's over with, but now we wait and see how production and jobs are cut for 2011. I'm not worrying about what I don't control. Still no word on the IT reorg. The CIO is out next week, so probably no movement until the end of Sept. I was confident that our lead was going to get promoted, but now I'm not so sure. Surely people notice how much he is gone and that he comes in at 9:00 and leaves by 4:00 most days. Oh well.....
This weekend we (mostly spouse) attended a seminar on employment opportunities for special needs adults. It was very good. We also went on a tour of places that will assist those folks with working.
DJIA 10,607.85
S&P 500 1,125.59
10-Yr T-Note 2.75%
s&p P/E: 20.56
VIX: 22.01
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 3%
The local machinists voted yesterday to reject CSNA's offer, but didn't have the votes to strike, so they will live with a 7 year deal. Glad that's over with, but now we wait and see how production and jobs are cut for 2011. I'm not worrying about what I don't control. Still no word on the IT reorg. The CIO is out next week, so probably no movement until the end of Sept. I was confident that our lead was going to get promoted, but now I'm not so sure. Surely people notice how much he is gone and that he comes in at 9:00 and leaves by 4:00 most days. Oh well.....
This weekend we (mostly spouse) attended a seminar on employment opportunities for special needs adults. It was very good. We also went on a tour of places that will assist those folks with working.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
September 4 2010....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,447.93
S&P 500 1,104.51
10-Yr T-Note 2.71%
VIX 21.31
s&p P/E: 20.28
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr 3.57%
Happy 49th to me. I drew the short straw and am on call this weekend, but that's ok. Perhaps I'll score some points with the group lead. Our team lead will probably learn his promotion fate this upcoming week. I still think he has a good chance to go up. It's a toss up what will happen to us, but I think we'll report directly to the group lead. Some pros and cons with that. Regardless there are some things he won't want to do that will roll downhill plus our rotation will only be 4 people.
The market had a bounce this week, ~65,000 net jobs created so it celebrated. Seems wacky, but it wants to go up on ANY good news. Two years and counting since Lehman Bros failed and jumpstarted this mess...
DJIA 10,447.93
S&P 500 1,104.51
10-Yr T-Note 2.71%
VIX 21.31
s&p P/E: 20.28
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr 3.57%
Happy 49th to me. I drew the short straw and am on call this weekend, but that's ok. Perhaps I'll score some points with the group lead. Our team lead will probably learn his promotion fate this upcoming week. I still think he has a good chance to go up. It's a toss up what will happen to us, but I think we'll report directly to the group lead. Some pros and cons with that. Regardless there are some things he won't want to do that will roll downhill plus our rotation will only be 4 people.
The market had a bounce this week, ~65,000 net jobs created so it celebrated. Seems wacky, but it wants to go up on ANY good news. Two years and counting since Lehman Bros failed and jumpstarted this mess...
Saturday, August 21, 2010
downward spiral resumes....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,213.62
S&P 500 1,071.69
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 19.68
VIX: 25.49
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
The deadline for the new IT positions passed and I have heard of a few people who applied, including our team lead. I think he has a good chance to get one of the 3 manager spots under our director. I'd like to go for his current spot if that happens, but who knows. I think we will wind up reporting to the the architect. The contract talks started this week. I can't the union people striking, unless they want to kill the company. They know that if they strike, they can all be replaced, probably easily. The language is starting to get dark again (low orders, continued cancellations). I'm trying to not worry about what I don't control.
Health, family, home, job, investments in that order.
DJIA 10,213.62
S&P 500 1,071.69
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 19.68
VIX: 25.49
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
The deadline for the new IT positions passed and I have heard of a few people who applied, including our team lead. I think he has a good chance to get one of the 3 manager spots under our director. I'd like to go for his current spot if that happens, but who knows. I think we will wind up reporting to the the architect. The contract talks started this week. I can't the union people striking, unless they want to kill the company. They know that if they strike, they can all be replaced, probably easily. The language is starting to get dark again (low orders, continued cancellations). I'm trying to not worry about what I don't control.
Health, family, home, job, investments in that order.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
double-dip...?
DJIA 10,653.56
S&P 500 1,121.64
10-Yr T-Note 2.82%
s&p P/E 20.41
VIX: 21.74
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr: 6%
We took a quick vacation this year to Taos, NM. While we were gone, the market tried to rally, running up several hundred points. After the July jobs report, it came back down early, but recovered for a small loss. The talking heads are sounding more like a double dip recession is likely. Another local aircraft company is threatening to move jobs to a lower cost state due to the state of the market. The Friday before our vacation our IT director brought us together for a meeting to discuss changes in the department. Three management jobs are opening up and she is getting the teams that report to them. She was almost giddy with excitement. The teams are being moved from another director, my guess is he's not pleased. It may be a sign that he needs to move on.
My bet is our lead will either leave or transfer out within 6 months. I've had a feeling about him for awhile, but it's pretty strong now. That would probably mean we'd all report to one guy (the architect). Which is probably how it should be. The guy only has 3 reports now. This place continues to be fat in head count, if things don't improve, more furloughs and/or layoffs will come. I think the shop could get by with under 100 staff. I think that would cut about 40 more people. I had my mid-year that Friday as well, it went ok. I still seem safe for now.
S&P 500 1,121.64
10-Yr T-Note 2.82%
s&p P/E 20.41
VIX: 21.74
equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 39
1 yr: 6%
We took a quick vacation this year to Taos, NM. While we were gone, the market tried to rally, running up several hundred points. After the July jobs report, it came back down early, but recovered for a small loss. The talking heads are sounding more like a double dip recession is likely. Another local aircraft company is threatening to move jobs to a lower cost state due to the state of the market. The Friday before our vacation our IT director brought us together for a meeting to discuss changes in the department. Three management jobs are opening up and she is getting the teams that report to them. She was almost giddy with excitement. The teams are being moved from another director, my guess is he's not pleased. It may be a sign that he needs to move on.
My bet is our lead will either leave or transfer out within 6 months. I've had a feeling about him for awhile, but it's pretty strong now. That would probably mean we'd all report to one guy (the architect). Which is probably how it should be. The guy only has 3 reports now. This place continues to be fat in head count, if things don't improve, more furloughs and/or layoffs will come. I think the shop could get by with under 100 staff. I think that would cut about 40 more people. I had my mid-year that Friday as well, it went ok. I still seem safe for now.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
2nd qtr earnings call...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,424.62
S&P 500 1,102.66
10-Yr T-Note 2.99%
s&p P/E: 20.07
VIX: 23.47
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 5.52%
The TXT earnings call seemed short and to the point. We had a good quarter, bell especially, however CSNA is worried about a decline back to recession. SD predicts that 2010 will be the trough for this cycle, but who knows. Several times he mentioned that production is being evaluated. My guess is we'll finish out 2010 and maybe have furloughs in 2011. I started my six sigma training this week. I'm enjoying it so far. I think I have a project lined up. I still feel mostly calm about my job. Over the last couple of months, I've had training lined up and I get to meet the TXT CIO next week. I'll have my mid year PMP this week, it should be fine. Spouse is on a roll in her job and it seems more secure.
The market is bouncing around between 1000 and 1100. The 10 year went below 3 since the last post. It seems like the people that have jobs and aren't worried are keeping the economy moving, the rest of us are still hunkered down. We'll keep saving, when I finish my GB I'm going to reward myself with a new bike. I'll have earned it.
DJIA 10,424.62
S&P 500 1,102.66
10-Yr T-Note 2.99%
s&p P/E: 20.07
VIX: 23.47
equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40
1 yr: 5.52%
The TXT earnings call seemed short and to the point. We had a good quarter, bell especially, however CSNA is worried about a decline back to recession. SD predicts that 2010 will be the trough for this cycle, but who knows. Several times he mentioned that production is being evaluated. My guess is we'll finish out 2010 and maybe have furloughs in 2011. I started my six sigma training this week. I'm enjoying it so far. I think I have a project lined up. I still feel mostly calm about my job. Over the last couple of months, I've had training lined up and I get to meet the TXT CIO next week. I'll have my mid year PMP this week, it should be fine. Spouse is on a roll in her job and it seems more secure.
The market is bouncing around between 1000 and 1100. The 10 year went below 3 since the last post. It seems like the people that have jobs and aren't worried are keeping the economy moving, the rest of us are still hunkered down. We'll keep saving, when I finish my GB I'm going to reward myself with a new bike. I'll have earned it.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
mid summer blahs...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,198.03
S&P 500 1,077.96
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 19.62
VIX: 24.98
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1 yr: 6.1%
A positive article appeared about TXT in our local paper this week. Scott Donnelly was discussing the investing TXT is doing in Bell and CSNA. We've heard similar discussions internally as well. Perhaps the cost cutting is turning into LT investing. Our lead was on vacation this week, so his boss got a chance to see how things run in his absence. I think some eye-opening occurred. We're starting to get our group a bit more involved in the design and modeling process before the specs are given to the offshore team. Hopefully, the group manager will see some value to front-end work and send more our way.
As I was out running this morning, I began to brainstorm ideas to act less like a 'pig' (using Cramer's terms) and more like a bull or a bear. The older I get, the less I like being slaughtered when Mr. Market decides he is overvalued and the roller coaster goes down. My first thought is when the S&P falls below its 12 month moving average, start buying. When its P/E reaches 25, start selling. I'll do some more research and see how much we'd forsake on the top-end and how much we'd keep on the low side. The bears are becoming more numerous and vocal. The contrarians think that is a good sign, I'm not so sure.
DJIA 10,198.03
S&P 500 1,077.96
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 19.62
VIX: 24.98
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1 yr: 6.1%
A positive article appeared about TXT in our local paper this week. Scott Donnelly was discussing the investing TXT is doing in Bell and CSNA. We've heard similar discussions internally as well. Perhaps the cost cutting is turning into LT investing. Our lead was on vacation this week, so his boss got a chance to see how things run in his absence. I think some eye-opening occurred. We're starting to get our group a bit more involved in the design and modeling process before the specs are given to the offshore team. Hopefully, the group manager will see some value to front-end work and send more our way.
As I was out running this morning, I began to brainstorm ideas to act less like a 'pig' (using Cramer's terms) and more like a bull or a bear. The older I get, the less I like being slaughtered when Mr. Market decides he is overvalued and the roller coaster goes down. My first thought is when the S&P falls below its 12 month moving average, start buying. When its P/E reaches 25, start selling. I'll do some more research and see how much we'd forsake on the top-end and how much we'd keep on the low side. The bears are becoming more numerous and vocal. The contrarians think that is a good sign, I'm not so sure.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
VLP results
Where we're at:
Dow: 10,143.81
s&p: 1,076.76
10 yr: 3.11%
s&p P/E: 19.53
VIX: 28.53
1 yr: 6.49%
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
We received a workforce canning update last week, asking for volunteers 55 and older to take voluntary layoff, probably by the end of the year. I heard this week that 97 took the leave, 1 from IT. Lead thought that 300 were sought, a peer thought 100. The 2nd quarter wraps up this week, no news yet about how we're doing. The mood is still pretty somber around the place. I think we'll be like this through 2011 as well.
I decided to make a 401k shift this week. I don't like the Fidelity diversified int'l K and I don't need 3 funds, so I'm dumping the S&P and the Div K. I'll swap into a target date fund in 30 days after the Div K short term trading penalty period. I really like the target date funds because of the low expenses and the auto rebalancing aspect. Still no furloughs or forced layoffs, but we will see in July. The earnings call is July 21.
Dow: 10,143.81
s&p: 1,076.76
10 yr: 3.11%
s&p P/E: 19.53
VIX: 28.53
1 yr: 6.49%
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
We received a workforce canning update last week, asking for volunteers 55 and older to take voluntary layoff, probably by the end of the year. I heard this week that 97 took the leave, 1 from IT. Lead thought that 300 were sought, a peer thought 100. The 2nd quarter wraps up this week, no news yet about how we're doing. The mood is still pretty somber around the place. I think we'll be like this through 2011 as well.
I decided to make a 401k shift this week. I don't like the Fidelity diversified int'l K and I don't need 3 funds, so I'm dumping the S&P and the Div K. I'll swap into a target date fund in 30 days after the Div K short term trading penalty period. I really like the target date funds because of the low expenses and the auto rebalancing aspect. Still no furloughs or forced layoffs, but we will see in July. The earnings call is July 21.
Friday, June 11, 2010
more storm clouds....
Where we're at:
Dow: 10211
s&p: 1091.60
10yr: 3.2160%
VIX: 28.79
s&p P/E: 19.8
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1yr: 9.1%
We seem to be in a correction now, the dow is down ~1000 points from its April high. But, I'm on the prowl for tax deferred investing. I bought into a REIT during this week's drop for spouse's IRA. I'll keep an eye out to get her back into US and foreign funds as well. I'll continue with the plan to bulk up our retirement and let the taxable ride. Our bonds are like the energizer bunny, hanging in there and giving us some diversity. Local credit union CDs help also. Bought a water heater this week, the only new thing left on the home list is a new mower. We'll probably buy that before Sept.
I attended a 'skip level' meeting this week with the local CIO. It went pretty well, she seemed interested in our feedback and I kept my foot out of my mouth. Today we received a workforce canning update, asking for salaried 55 and older 'volunteers'. I'm waiting for a shoe to drop before the 2nd quarter analyst call. I'm strangely calm about it this year. I think it's because I've realized that it's not in my control. We'll plan and defer what we can and prepare and see what happens.
Dow: 10211
s&p: 1091.60
10yr: 3.2160%
VIX: 28.79
s&p P/E: 19.8
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1yr: 9.1%
We seem to be in a correction now, the dow is down ~1000 points from its April high. But, I'm on the prowl for tax deferred investing. I bought into a REIT during this week's drop for spouse's IRA. I'll keep an eye out to get her back into US and foreign funds as well. I'll continue with the plan to bulk up our retirement and let the taxable ride. Our bonds are like the energizer bunny, hanging in there and giving us some diversity. Local credit union CDs help also. Bought a water heater this week, the only new thing left on the home list is a new mower. We'll probably buy that before Sept.
I attended a 'skip level' meeting this week with the local CIO. It went pretty well, she seemed interested in our feedback and I kept my foot out of my mouth. Today we received a workforce canning update, asking for salaried 55 and older 'volunteers'. I'm waiting for a shoe to drop before the 2nd quarter analyst call. I'm strangely calm about it this year. I think it's because I've realized that it's not in my control. We'll plan and defer what we can and prepare and see what happens.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
rough week...
The market flopped up and down this week, its sentiment apparently driven by the European activity on Greece and the other PIGS. The S&P and the DOW both finished down about 4%. The DOW is down about 2.25% YTD, s&p is down about 2.5% YTD. TXT bounced all over the place this week as well. Makes me glad I sold a bit at $22 in April. Spouse was mad this weekend that we did not go to a concert or out of town. She blamed me and thought I was being cheap and giving excuses. Sometimes she doesn't get what I do on the weekends. Chores and work take a lot of time and I don't particularly want to do everything on one day.
CSNA continues to make me nervous. If Europe starts to tank, that's one less potential market for airplanes. Who knows how the 2nd quarter is going, we won't know until a workforce planning update or the earnings call in July. This shop is ridiculous, two PMs to manage a dink departmental project. As I told the lead last week, all of the processes are around to support a bloated, self-important staff.
CSNA continues to make me nervous. If Europe starts to tank, that's one less potential market for airplanes. Who knows how the 2nd quarter is going, we won't know until a workforce planning update or the earnings call in July. This shop is ridiculous, two PMs to manage a dink departmental project. As I told the lead last week, all of the processes are around to support a bloated, self-important staff.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
no forced time off in July...
Where we're at:
DJIA: 10620
S&P: 1135.68
10yr: 3.44%
VIX: 31.24
s&p P/E: 20.6
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1 yr: 14.5%
Two weeks ago, the rumor came down that we'd be forced to take off during the first week of July. This is the normal 1 week facility shutdown for CSNA. This week, the IT head said that was not correct, so we can take vacation in August instead. I'm still optimistic, but will hedge by hoarding vacation time until the EOY. I still believe we'll have some sort of furlough this year. Group lead reported 14 orders from a European conference and we have >400 proposals out to people. So some optimism is warranted. This was a fast school year. Like I tell myself, the older I get, the faster time passes. A minor milestone, I crossed over 3 years this week at TXT.
DJIA: 10620
S&P: 1135.68
10yr: 3.44%
VIX: 31.24
s&p P/E: 20.6
equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40
1 yr: 14.5%
Two weeks ago, the rumor came down that we'd be forced to take off during the first week of July. This is the normal 1 week facility shutdown for CSNA. This week, the IT head said that was not correct, so we can take vacation in August instead. I'm still optimistic, but will hedge by hoarding vacation time until the EOY. I still believe we'll have some sort of furlough this year. Group lead reported 14 orders from a European conference and we have >400 proposals out to people. So some optimism is warranted. This was a fast school year. Like I tell myself, the older I get, the faster time passes. A minor milestone, I crossed over 3 years this week at TXT.
Sunday, May 02, 2010
progress on studies...
I'm about 2/3 through my data mining studies. The familiar material is over (basic statistics), now I'm reviewing classification theory. The videos in you tube are very good and follow the material well. Ever since I earned my Master's online, I felt that that would be the way to learn IT material. Brick and mortar won't die, but it doesn't keep up tech like online learning.
I enjoy being an Oracle DBA, but I increasingly believe that those skills are becoming a commodity and the ability to use a company's information will add more value that just backing it up and tuning querys. Data mining skills are transferable across industries as well, so my marketability should increase. Plus, it's always fun to learn new stuff.
I enjoy being an Oracle DBA, but I increasingly believe that those skills are becoming a commodity and the ability to use a company's information will add more value that just backing it up and tuning querys. Data mining skills are transferable across industries as well, so my marketability should increase. Plus, it's always fun to learn new stuff.
Saturday, May 01, 2010
mostly cloudy...
Lead and first level both mentioned no planned furloughs for now. We seem to have hit bottom in sales activity and may start climbing out. First level seems to think the place will be idle the first week of July, but we asked him to verify that. Even if things deteriorate, I'm not too nervous. I seem to be on the lead's radar and may start six sigma training this year.
Spouse had a surprise this week, a commission check. It looks like she will get them quarterly. Now that the twitter queen is gone, I think her "stock" will rise a bit. She just has to be careful about the "nug", who apparently offends easily. We're enjoying the new vehicle greatly and I don't feel a bit stupid anymore for buying it. Somebody has to keep the economy moving.
When life hands out lemons, make lemonade.
Spouse had a surprise this week, a commission check. It looks like she will get them quarterly. Now that the twitter queen is gone, I think her "stock" will rise a bit. She just has to be careful about the "nug", who apparently offends easily. We're enjoying the new vehicle greatly and I don't feel a bit stupid anymore for buying it. Somebody has to keep the economy moving.
When life hands out lemons, make lemonade.
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