Where we're at:
DJIA 10,402.35
S&P 500 1,109.17
10-Yr T-Note 3.78%
VIX: 20.02
s&p P/E: 20.42
equity 28%
bond 31%
cash 41
1 yr perf: 8.39%
On 2/18 after the markets closed, the FED raised the discount rate from .25 to .50. While this was announced about a week ago, the market was taken by surprise because it anticipated the move to be later on. On 2/19, the market came down but recovered for a small gain. I have frozen 2010 IRA contributions to catch up for 2009. I continue to be more interested in spending than saving. Nothing in the investing world interests me now. Everything seems either too volatile (stocks), too expensive (gold), or rates are too low (cash). So, we'll buy new kitchen flooring, a new vehicle, and take a nice vacation next year. Maybe this is Obama's plan to stimulate the economy.
Work continues to be ok. I had my 2009 review, it went well. Lead seems to get 'it' that I could be doing more. Spouse continues to plod along. I hope she can last at least a year to get through her non-compete. I am going to keep an eye on Cisco opportunities. I think she could do well doing remote sales for them.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Saturday, February 06, 2010
downward trend....
Where we're at:
DJIA: 10,012.23
S&P 500: 1,066.19
10-Yr T-Note: 3.55%
VIX: 26.11
s&p P/E: 19.33
equity: 27
bonds: 32
cash: 41
1yr: 7.68%
The market has come down for the last 4 weeks (~6%). I continue to invest the remaining 2009 IRA balance for both spouse and myself, buying on dips. 2009 showed me what "I am made of" and reinforced my belief in our holdings long term. I'll continue to not invest taxable funds, but will invest tax deferred to try and beat the taxman.
TXT had their 4th qtr earnings call this week. It was mostly downbeat but mentioned that 4th qtr jet orders were better than the previous 3 qtrs combined. In our staff meeting this week, the lead passed down notes from the CSNA SLT call. It was also mostly downbeat, all monitored indicators are still 'red'. However, IT projects are in the works for 2010 and will be announced next week. We may even get some training this year, and my data mining pilot was approved (now I have to find something). Spouse's work is steadily getting better, she is getting more comfortable and has not come home crying in several weeks (month?). We're both very fortunate to be working now and our jobs seem to smoothing out.
DJIA: 10,012.23
S&P 500: 1,066.19
10-Yr T-Note: 3.55%
VIX: 26.11
s&p P/E: 19.33
equity: 27
bonds: 32
cash: 41
1yr: 7.68%
The market has come down for the last 4 weeks (~6%). I continue to invest the remaining 2009 IRA balance for both spouse and myself, buying on dips. 2009 showed me what "I am made of" and reinforced my belief in our holdings long term. I'll continue to not invest taxable funds, but will invest tax deferred to try and beat the taxman.
TXT had their 4th qtr earnings call this week. It was mostly downbeat but mentioned that 4th qtr jet orders were better than the previous 3 qtrs combined. In our staff meeting this week, the lead passed down notes from the CSNA SLT call. It was also mostly downbeat, all monitored indicators are still 'red'. However, IT projects are in the works for 2010 and will be announced next week. We may even get some training this year, and my data mining pilot was approved (now I have to find something). Spouse's work is steadily getting better, she is getting more comfortable and has not come home crying in several weeks (month?). We're both very fortunate to be working now and our jobs seem to smoothing out.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
pull back...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,172.98
S&P 500 1,091.76
10-Yr T-Note 3.60%
VIX 27.34
s&p P/E 19.79
equity: 28
bond: 31
cash: 41
1 yr: 7.89%
After the MS senatorial race ended in a win for the republicans, the market decided to pull back a bit. The dow lost about 600 points in a 3 day run. I decided to buy. I added some money to spouse's roth IRA. I'll continue to do that until we make all of our 2009 contributions to both. Spouse seems confident enough to start deferring income to SEP-IRA. I want her to just contribute up to the match. I still don't like her options. We'll also max the roth IRAs this year. Considering what we went through, 2009 turned out to be ok for us, financially speaking (amazing).
DJIA 10,172.98
S&P 500 1,091.76
10-Yr T-Note 3.60%
VIX 27.34
s&p P/E 19.79
equity: 28
bond: 31
cash: 41
1 yr: 7.89%
After the MS senatorial race ended in a win for the republicans, the market decided to pull back a bit. The dow lost about 600 points in a 3 day run. I decided to buy. I added some money to spouse's roth IRA. I'll continue to do that until we make all of our 2009 contributions to both. Spouse seems confident enough to start deferring income to SEP-IRA. I want her to just contribute up to the match. I still don't like her options. We'll also max the roth IRAs this year. Considering what we went through, 2009 turned out to be ok for us, financially speaking (amazing).
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Happy new year...
Where we're at:
Dow: 10,618
s&p: 1144.98
10yr: 3.81%
s&p P/E: 20.76
VIX: 19.06
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 41
1 yr: 7.17%
We finally finished our 2009 furloughs (yippee). Hopefully, our furloughs will be shorter in 2010, I carried over some vacation to cover any. My bet is 1-2 weeks in the summer and another 2 weeks next winter. I should be able to cover all of that with vacation. I did not take any unemployment comp in 2009, so I'll have that available if I need it. Spouse's job is progressing up the roller coaster again. She seems to be doing better, but we'll hold off on the SEP IRA awhile longer (Feb).
I noticed that Bell posted an architect position in Dec that sounds interesting. I asked my lead about it, he is going to make an informal inquiry. I doubt that it goes anywhere, but I'd like to follow up. I'll hold off talking to my spouse until I know something. We plan on the kitchen flooring in Feb, and a new vehicle in the spring.
I'm reading Jim Cramer's books to get a different perspective on investing. I've been drinking the buy-and-hold koolaid for so long that I need to consider other ideas. His hedge fund book was very good, a bit different from Andy Kessler's. Cramer describes the day-to-day grind, while Kessler describes raising cash and visiting companies. Both are very good. I think I may try to be a bit more active this year and try to ID some trends.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
Dow: 10,618
s&p: 1144.98
10yr: 3.81%
s&p P/E: 20.76
VIX: 19.06
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 41
1 yr: 7.17%
We finally finished our 2009 furloughs (yippee). Hopefully, our furloughs will be shorter in 2010, I carried over some vacation to cover any. My bet is 1-2 weeks in the summer and another 2 weeks next winter. I should be able to cover all of that with vacation. I did not take any unemployment comp in 2009, so I'll have that available if I need it. Spouse's job is progressing up the roller coaster again. She seems to be doing better, but we'll hold off on the SEP IRA awhile longer (Feb).
I noticed that Bell posted an architect position in Dec that sounds interesting. I asked my lead about it, he is going to make an informal inquiry. I doubt that it goes anywhere, but I'd like to follow up. I'll hold off talking to my spouse until I know something. We plan on the kitchen flooring in Feb, and a new vehicle in the spring.
I'm reading Jim Cramer's books to get a different perspective on investing. I've been drinking the buy-and-hold koolaid for so long that I need to consider other ideas. His hedge fund book was very good, a bit different from Andy Kessler's. Cramer describes the day-to-day grind, while Kessler describes raising cash and visiting companies. Both are very good. I think I may try to be a bit more active this year and try to ID some trends.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
EOY 2009
Where we're at:
DOW: 10466
s&p: 1120.59
10yr: 3.74%
VIX: 19.71
s&p P/E: 20.32
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 7.25%
It's Christmas Eve 2009, we're both off work today. I am wrapping up my 7th furlough week, I start getting paid again. It looks like we'll finish the year up around 8% (not including short-term). Not bad, considering the last 15 months of activity.
What worked: staying the course, continued tax deferred investing, bonds, US/Int'l equity, tax loss selling
What didn't: short term investments
We have a large amount in ST just because our job situation was and is tenuous and will remain so through 2010. We'll continue our minor kitchen remodel and plan on buying a new vehicle in 2010. If spouse remains at new job, she'll enroll in SEP IRA. I've maxed out her roth contributions for 2010 and we'll defer some into the HSA. I'm anxious about our health care for 2010 since we're in a new high deductible plan. Onward, through the fog....
DOW: 10466
s&p: 1120.59
10yr: 3.74%
VIX: 19.71
s&p P/E: 20.32
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 7.25%
It's Christmas Eve 2009, we're both off work today. I am wrapping up my 7th furlough week, I start getting paid again. It looks like we'll finish the year up around 8% (not including short-term). Not bad, considering the last 15 months of activity.
What worked: staying the course, continued tax deferred investing, bonds, US/Int'l equity, tax loss selling
What didn't: short term investments
We have a large amount in ST just because our job situation was and is tenuous and will remain so through 2010. We'll continue our minor kitchen remodel and plan on buying a new vehicle in 2010. If spouse remains at new job, she'll enroll in SEP IRA. I've maxed out her roth contributions for 2010 and we'll defer some into the HSA. I'm anxious about our health care for 2010 since we're in a new high deductible plan. Onward, through the fog....
Saturday, December 12, 2009
more turbulence...
Where we're at:
dow: 10471
s&p: 1106
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 22.32
s&p P/E: 20.06
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr: 12.3%
I plowed my spot award along with some spousal inheritance into a 6 month CD called our 'car fund'. We intend to replace our 11 yr old minivan in the spring, assuming no employment surprises. However, my spouse may get one. Her boss is weak at communication, either intentionally or not and has done a poor job of communicating expectations about her continuing employment at her new job. So, she may be unemployed again soon. However, I've told her not to worry about it and just do the best she can to meet the company's expectations. I'm not sure what will happen, my instincts say it could go either way. I think it depends on the mood this guy is in on any given day.
Because of that, I'm holding off giving the MS car salesman any information about our assets for her sep IRA. I shouldn't have pushed her to open the account, usually I'm careful about that stuff. Until about 30 days ago, she seemed to be doing fine. She is doing support, sales, and A/R. If she is canned, they'll have a hole to fill and the remaining geeks can't do the day-to-day marketing grind. I have tried to lift her up and encourage her. I think if they give her some more time, she'll be successful. We'll probably know something by the end of the month.
I have stopped worrying about my job. I think I'm safe for now, but it still depends on the economy. I have one more full week and then the last of the 2009 furlough weeks and holiday shutdown. Still I think I'm where I'm supposed to be and I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010.
The market continues to be too optimistic in my opinion, so no new buying for us.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
dow: 10471
s&p: 1106
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 22.32
s&p P/E: 20.06
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr: 12.3%
I plowed my spot award along with some spousal inheritance into a 6 month CD called our 'car fund'. We intend to replace our 11 yr old minivan in the spring, assuming no employment surprises. However, my spouse may get one. Her boss is weak at communication, either intentionally or not and has done a poor job of communicating expectations about her continuing employment at her new job. So, she may be unemployed again soon. However, I've told her not to worry about it and just do the best she can to meet the company's expectations. I'm not sure what will happen, my instincts say it could go either way. I think it depends on the mood this guy is in on any given day.
Because of that, I'm holding off giving the MS car salesman any information about our assets for her sep IRA. I shouldn't have pushed her to open the account, usually I'm careful about that stuff. Until about 30 days ago, she seemed to be doing fine. She is doing support, sales, and A/R. If she is canned, they'll have a hole to fill and the remaining geeks can't do the day-to-day marketing grind. I have tried to lift her up and encourage her. I think if they give her some more time, she'll be successful. We'll probably know something by the end of the month.
I have stopped worrying about my job. I think I'm safe for now, but it still depends on the economy. I have one more full week and then the last of the 2009 furlough weeks and holiday shutdown. Still I think I'm where I'm supposed to be and I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010.
The market continues to be too optimistic in my opinion, so no new buying for us.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
Saturday, November 28, 2009
good week...
Where we're at:
Dow: 10309
s&p: 1091.49
10 yr: 3.23%
VIX: 24.74
s&p P/E: 19.86
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr 8.3%
I had my best week at CSNA prior to my 6th week of furlough. First, the project teams had a recognition lunch with members of the SLT and we received gift cards. Second, I met with my team's director and gave my data mining presentation. It went well, and she has some ideas on how to use the knowledge. During the meeting, she mentioned the possibility of training in 2010. Our lead mentioned that we would be getting a shared cell phone, so no more using personal phones for support. Finally, I received an award for my work on the project. I'm finally starting to feel like my work is being noticed and I may have escaped further layoffs.
Spouse is still nervous about her job, I think it's just "newbie" syndrome. We talked this week and she talked to a peer who told her she is doing fine. Still, we'll hedge and not replace the kitchen flooring until 2010. Still doing other things around the house though. Spouse also received an inheritance that we'll put to work in 2010.
In my opinion, the markets have still come too far, too fast, so we're not investing except for tax deferred and roth. I'm also putting money into the HSA for next year's expenses. Not sure what health coverage will be like, so more hedging on the deductable amount.
Dow: 10309
s&p: 1091.49
10 yr: 3.23%
VIX: 24.74
s&p P/E: 19.86
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr 8.3%
I had my best week at CSNA prior to my 6th week of furlough. First, the project teams had a recognition lunch with members of the SLT and we received gift cards. Second, I met with my team's director and gave my data mining presentation. It went well, and she has some ideas on how to use the knowledge. During the meeting, she mentioned the possibility of training in 2010. Our lead mentioned that we would be getting a shared cell phone, so no more using personal phones for support. Finally, I received an award for my work on the project. I'm finally starting to feel like my work is being noticed and I may have escaped further layoffs.
Spouse is still nervous about her job, I think it's just "newbie" syndrome. We talked this week and she talked to a peer who told her she is doing fine. Still, we'll hedge and not replace the kitchen flooring until 2010. Still doing other things around the house though. Spouse also received an inheritance that we'll put to work in 2010.
In my opinion, the markets have still come too far, too fast, so we're not investing except for tax deferred and roth. I'm also putting money into the HSA for next year's expenses. Not sure what health coverage will be like, so more hedging on the deductable amount.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
6th furlough week...
Where we're at:
Dow: 10226
S&P: 1093.08
10yr: 3.49%
VIX: 23.15
S&P P/E: 19.55
equity: 28.7
bond: 25.7
cash: 45.6
1 yr: -.85%
Well, I wouldn't have believed it, but we are almost back to even. Spouse's 401k has finally made it to V. I never thought it would take as long as it did. I suspect that the provider was taking interest that we could have been earning by delaying the distribution, oh well. This morning I put 50% in short and int term bonds. I'll DCA into stocks, once they back off a bit. There are no fundamental reasons for stocks to be this high and I learned my lesson from the last 5 years. She is getting enrolled in her company's SEP-IRA. It is with a full service broker (used car salesman), hopefully he won't try to shaft her.
Spouse seems to be doing well in her job, she had a sale last week after her first month and she has demos scheduled. I avoided the layoffs (for now). My job still seems to be safe. We had an "all hands" department meeting last week, that did not cover very much. It mostly rehashed the TXT earnings call. So no news about layoffs, furloughs, or raises in 2010. My gut says more furloughs, but no layoffs or raises, unless the economy gets worse or better. My S&P target is still 900 by 12/31.
As we have been discussing, we are going to spend a bit to improve some things around the house (minor kitchen remodel, termite treatment, and new hot water tank). We have been saving money the whole year to cover these expenses. We'll not be in a hurry, but will probably have it all done by Feb 2010.
Dow: 10226
S&P: 1093.08
10yr: 3.49%
VIX: 23.15
S&P P/E: 19.55
equity: 28.7
bond: 25.7
cash: 45.6
1 yr: -.85%
Well, I wouldn't have believed it, but we are almost back to even. Spouse's 401k has finally made it to V. I never thought it would take as long as it did. I suspect that the provider was taking interest that we could have been earning by delaying the distribution, oh well. This morning I put 50% in short and int term bonds. I'll DCA into stocks, once they back off a bit. There are no fundamental reasons for stocks to be this high and I learned my lesson from the last 5 years. She is getting enrolled in her company's SEP-IRA. It is with a full service broker (used car salesman), hopefully he won't try to shaft her.
Spouse seems to be doing well in her job, she had a sale last week after her first month and she has demos scheduled. I avoided the layoffs (for now). My job still seems to be safe. We had an "all hands" department meeting last week, that did not cover very much. It mostly rehashed the TXT earnings call. So no news about layoffs, furloughs, or raises in 2010. My gut says more furloughs, but no layoffs or raises, unless the economy gets worse or better. My S&P target is still 900 by 12/31.
As we have been discussing, we are going to spend a bit to improve some things around the house (minor kitchen remodel, termite treatment, and new hot water tank). We have been saving money the whole year to cover these expenses. We'll not be in a hurry, but will probably have it all done by Feb 2010.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
a little nervous...
I'm in the 5th week of my furloughs. The "noise" coming from the company sr mgmt seems to be getting less negative. They are rumbling that the bottom of the cycle is near, however the rumors are flying that more furloughs are necessary next year (upto 10 weeks). So, I put our odds of one of us being laid off at ~50%. Spouse's job seems to be going well so far, she is in her 3rd week and she is making calls and doing software demos.
Before the 2nd layoff day at my place, I had my 3rd qtr PMP review. That seemed ironic considering what could have happened the next day. But my lead tried to put me at ease. He explained that our role will be changing some what next year. We may be doing more spec gathering and writing next year, as opposed to programming. I told him that was fine with me, but my sr peer may have issues with that. He only likes doing technical work. I feel better about my chances next year since the "pup" wasn't laid off either.
Spouse and I are busy moving her 401(k) to V. I think I have a reinvestment plan set up. She is getting an inheritance in the 4th quarter that we'll also need to invest. Being on furlough is causing me to spend more time than I should looking at our investments. The "instant-on" ability of the internet is dangerous that way. When I was constantly busy at WSU and Cargill, I let our investments go on overdrive. But, I think I have made some good choices the last two years to lower our tax liability and our costs. I'm debating on what to do with the new money. I may ask for some help. Not sure who to ask.....
It feels good to spend some money around the house. Our job situation has encouraged me to buy appliances, flooring, and countertops. We also have a couple of maintenance items (hot water tank and insect treatment) that I don't need to put off any longer.
Before the 2nd layoff day at my place, I had my 3rd qtr PMP review. That seemed ironic considering what could have happened the next day. But my lead tried to put me at ease. He explained that our role will be changing some what next year. We may be doing more spec gathering and writing next year, as opposed to programming. I told him that was fine with me, but my sr peer may have issues with that. He only likes doing technical work. I feel better about my chances next year since the "pup" wasn't laid off either.
Spouse and I are busy moving her 401(k) to V. I think I have a reinvestment plan set up. She is getting an inheritance in the 4th quarter that we'll also need to invest. Being on furlough is causing me to spend more time than I should looking at our investments. The "instant-on" ability of the internet is dangerous that way. When I was constantly busy at WSU and Cargill, I let our investments go on overdrive. But, I think I have made some good choices the last two years to lower our tax liability and our costs. I'm debating on what to do with the new money. I may ask for some help. Not sure who to ask.....
It feels good to spend some money around the house. Our job situation has encouraged me to buy appliances, flooring, and countertops. We also have a couple of maintenance items (hot water tank and insect treatment) that I don't need to put off any longer.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
still employed...
Where we're at:
dow: 9995
s&p: 1087.68
10yr: 3.41%
vix: 21.43
s&p P/E: 19.45
equity: 35.8
bond: 31.3
cash: 32.9
1 yr: 8.67
As rumored, the IT layoffs (2nd round) happened on 10/9. I managed to escape getting laid off. My lead knew most of the victims and told me yesterday that they mainly supported "mapper" and other load (I think) apps. One was canned for "political" reasons. He kept telling me that I did not need to worry, but I told him that without positive feedback from mgmt, you don't know what your status is. He says he'll pass that up, but I don't think it matters. The culture is
ingrained to only tell people what they need to know to do their jobs on that particular day.
I also had a PMP review that went ok, ironically the day before the layoffs. For 2010, we're rumored to be furloughed for up to 10 weeks. Not sure how my senior peer will react to that.
Spouse's job seems to be going along fine. She is catching on and they are going to let her start selling next week. We are moving her 401(k) proceeds to where the rest of our investments are to save on costs.
The dow touched 10,000 this week. It seems "too far, too fast". I'll continue with the plan to only add to retirement accounts and not taxable, for now. Since we're both still employed, we are going to spend some money on the house in 2010. Mostly on things that I have wanted for awhile, but also on some new appliances.
dow: 9995
s&p: 1087.68
10yr: 3.41%
vix: 21.43
s&p P/E: 19.45
equity: 35.8
bond: 31.3
cash: 32.9
1 yr: 8.67
As rumored, the IT layoffs (2nd round) happened on 10/9. I managed to escape getting laid off. My lead knew most of the victims and told me yesterday that they mainly supported "mapper" and other load (I think) apps. One was canned for "political" reasons. He kept telling me that I did not need to worry, but I told him that without positive feedback from mgmt, you don't know what your status is. He says he'll pass that up, but I don't think it matters. The culture is
ingrained to only tell people what they need to know to do their jobs on that particular day.
I also had a PMP review that went ok, ironically the day before the layoffs. For 2010, we're rumored to be furloughed for up to 10 weeks. Not sure how my senior peer will react to that.
Spouse's job seems to be going along fine. She is catching on and they are going to let her start selling next week. We are moving her 401(k) proceeds to where the rest of our investments are to save on costs.
The dow touched 10,000 this week. It seems "too far, too fast". I'll continue with the plan to only add to retirement accounts and not taxable, for now. Since we're both still employed, we are going to spend some money on the house in 2010. Mostly on things that I have wanted for awhile, but also on some new appliances.
Friday, October 02, 2009
spouses's last day at old job...
Where we're at:
dow: 9478
s&p: 1024.38
10yr: 3.18%
VIX: 28.27
s&p P/E: 18.31
equity: 34.6
bonds: 31.9
cash: 33.5
1 yr: 1.79%
When this was written, our 1 year performance turned positive, however; the market has been down 6 of the last 7 days, so it won't last. Spouse ends a 17+ yr run at old co. today and starts new job on Monday. So today we are packing up her "office" so she can take it back and finish her day out. She is excited about her new position and it sounds like a good fit, so I am optimistic.
I am finishing week 4 of my furlough and have been fairly productive. I spent most of the week learning a new Oracle dev tool (APEX). The rumor mill says that we will learn about the next set of IT layoffs on 10/9. My gut still says I'll make it. I hope so, I'd like to spend a little money again around the house.
I found out today that her 401(k) provider takes a 1% yearly fee to administer the account. In the past they have been able to "hide" the fee in the account gains. That's been hard to do since the market has performed poorly the last two years. So we made the decision to rollover her account to another provider.
dow: 9478
s&p: 1024.38
10yr: 3.18%
VIX: 28.27
s&p P/E: 18.31
equity: 34.6
bonds: 31.9
cash: 33.5
1 yr: 1.79%
When this was written, our 1 year performance turned positive, however; the market has been down 6 of the last 7 days, so it won't last. Spouse ends a 17+ yr run at old co. today and starts new job on Monday. So today we are packing up her "office" so she can take it back and finish her day out. She is excited about her new position and it sounds like a good fit, so I am optimistic.
I am finishing week 4 of my furlough and have been fairly productive. I spent most of the week learning a new Oracle dev tool (APEX). The rumor mill says that we will learn about the next set of IT layoffs on 10/9. My gut still says I'll make it. I hope so, I'd like to spend a little money again around the house.
I found out today that her 401(k) provider takes a 1% yearly fee to administer the account. In the past they have been able to "hide" the fee in the account gains. That's been hard to do since the market has performed poorly the last two years. So we made the decision to rollover her account to another provider.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
spouse found a new job
Where we're at:
dow: 9820
s&p: 1068.30
10 yr: 3.47%
s&p P/E: 19.08
VIX: 23.92
equity: 35.6
bond: 31.3
cash: 33.1
1 yr: -1.32
I'm very proud of my wife. Just 3 weeks ago she was laid off from her job of 17 years. She contacted the people she knew from her customer base, friends, and acquaintances. From this list, she received some help that ultimately led to an opportunity that seems like a good fit.
We'll still be on her insurance for another month, by then (end of Oct.) I should know about my job. My gut still "tells" me that I am safe for now, but who knows. We are hearing that overnight support will continue for the DW for awhile and there seems to be enough work for 3 internal + 2 offshore resources. 2010 will still be up and down. Hopefully if I make it through this cut, CSNA is staffed correctly. Fourth week of furlough starts on 9/28.
The market continues to run up, it still seems too far too fast, so I'm cutting back our investments except for tax deferred accounts.
dow: 9820
s&p: 1068.30
10 yr: 3.47%
s&p P/E: 19.08
VIX: 23.92
equity: 35.6
bond: 31.3
cash: 33.1
1 yr: -1.32
I'm very proud of my wife. Just 3 weeks ago she was laid off from her job of 17 years. She contacted the people she knew from her customer base, friends, and acquaintances. From this list, she received some help that ultimately led to an opportunity that seems like a good fit.
We'll still be on her insurance for another month, by then (end of Oct.) I should know about my job. My gut still "tells" me that I am safe for now, but who knows. We are hearing that overnight support will continue for the DW for awhile and there seems to be enough work for 3 internal + 2 offshore resources. 2010 will still be up and down. Hopefully if I make it through this cut, CSNA is staffed correctly. Fourth week of furlough starts on 9/28.
The market continues to run up, it still seems too far too fast, so I'm cutting back our investments except for tax deferred accounts.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
down...then up
Where we're at
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55
equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9
1 yr: -2.97
The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.
Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55
equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9
1 yr: -2.97
The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.
Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
it happened...
On Friday, Aug 28, spouse was notified that her job would be eliminated on 10/2. She was given the option to leave immediately or stay for 30 days to transition. She took it it quite hard, it seemed pretty unexpected. Her sales performance had been improving over the summer and she had received good comments from the division GM. They seemed to have had this in mind for awhile. They pitched having her become a "partner" and sell AT&T and division network services. They assert that she could make more money doing that. After being with this company for 17 years, she was shocked about the news. I think she wants to do the partner thing, but I would honestly rather she look for another full-time gig.
I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.
I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
another run...waiting for a fall?
Where we're at:
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
furlough week 3 ...
Where we're at:
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
a nice run up....
Where we're at
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Saturday, July 11, 2009
back to work....
Where we're at:
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Off to CO...
Where we're at..
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
more layoffs...
Where we're at
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
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