Company X first post

So, I haven't posted much since leaving TXT.  Company X has also been a roller coaster, almost since I started in 2013, the turnover express has run.  My team was as high as 7, in 2014 it was down to 4, now it's me plus offshore support.  Last spring and summer, I was concerned about a layoff, in June the layoff fire had gasoline poured on it.  But, a peer and I survived, I thought then and now that we were spared because the central IT team could not support our BUs.

Then in the middle of summer, a BU spinoff was announced and my peer and other IT staff were sent with them, so down to me.  I support the direction of the central IT group, but it's hard.  I'm stuck in the middle, trying to support their objectives while listening to local people complain about service.  I tell myself that I'm happy, yet I have applied for 6 other external and internal positions in the last year.  I have had a couple of interviews, and several of the positions were closed and not filled.  But two surprises lately, a training trip to Seattle and a raise, amazing.  Now I may have an opportunity to move to a BU as a data analyst.  We'll see how that goes.  

I have low expectations and try to stay on the radar in a positive way, but I think I come to work everyday expecting my badge to not open a door.

2015 and hello 2016

Where we're at:

Dow: 16466
s&p: 1940
10 yr: 1.93%
VIX: 19.20
CAPE s&p P/E: 24.56

1yr: 0.0%

mix:
equity: 36
bond: 54
cash: 10

It's been awhile, so I thought I would recap the year and what I've done so far in 2016.  2015 for us was 'flat', the EOY cap gains and dividends in our tax deferred investments brought us to even, so I beat my benchmark for a 3rd year (ivy portfolio + commodities).  When commodities come back, I'll probably be behind again.  Not much worked last year, US, Int'l, bonds, REITs.  I think the only thing that worked somewhat were muni bonds.  Love them.  The fed being wishy-washy on interest rates didn't help.  I have begun researching values in dividend stocks now that a bit of froth is gone, still with a P/E above 20, there is still quite a bit of it.

In an effort to keep some 'dry powder' and move the needle on our cash, I began opening a lot of CDs, mostly brokered ones to avoid the hassle of running around the web yield shopping.  That should give us a bit more cash flow.  I have sold all of our int'ls in my IRA and repurchased them in our taxable to take advantage of the foreign tax credit and lower my cost basis.  I do plan on adding to our US large caps, mostly dividend achievers throughout the year.

Expenses: new AC?, vacation in the fall to east coast, new bed?

Happy dance...paid off home in December.

Hello 2015

Where we're at:

Dow: 17823
s&p: 2058
10 yr: 2.17
VIX: 19.20
s&p P/E: 27.03

1yr: 5.8

mix:
equity: 39
bond: 44
cash: 17

2014 was a pretty good year, US stocks and REITS worked, glad we had some.  Everything else mostly did not. I beat my modified Swenson benchmark (Swenson & commodities) for the second year running.  I kept up my data science specialization and will return to mining early this year.  Spouse has been in her new job for ~5 months.  She is starting to gain some traction.  We bought a car in October, used not new.  The 'death march' project at work seems like it is winding down finally.  It is scheduled for an install in March, we have a dual plant parallel in January we're pushing for.

I feel pretty secure, much more so than in aircraft.  We do have some uncertainty, our department will probably move under corporate IT by the end of FY15, but it does not worry me (much).  This year, I'll finish the data science stuff and return to mining and Hadoop.  Hopefully I'll find some questions to answer with unstructured data in 2015.  Investment wise, I'm selling the JNK and investing it in equities and higher quality bonds.  I'll keep an eye on commodities and maybe buy some this year.  It seems like it might be time.  If we're still here next December, I'll pay off our house and lock in that gain.

Job market improving....

Where we're at:

Dow: 17086
s&p: 1987
10 yr: 2.46
VIX: 11.52
s&p P/E: 26.28

1yr: 9.2

mix:
equity: 37
bond: 41
cash: 22

Interesting July, so this month spouse and two peers are changing jobs locally (sales and IT).  So maybe our 'personal' economy is improving.  I'll miss my peers, but it was probably time for them.  In the 16 months that I have been here, the whole team has turned over.  I'm now the most tenured on the team.  Weird.  Not sure what happens now, probably a team of contractors.  Before the second person left, the department threw some money at me, a nice bonus and a raise.  Both firsts since I arrived, I'm happy with the comp and they let me do unstructured data work, so I like the place.  It's just unsettling, the amount of turnover.  My peer from CSNA e-mailed and told me my spot was still open and asked if I was interested, we'll have lunch on 8/1.

TXT released their 2nd quarter results this week, they had an earnings beat and the tone of the call was cautiously optimistic, as it has been for 4 years.  The stock is still  hanging around 40 with a p/e of ~23.  Still seems high to me and with no dividend, no reason to hold it.  Glad I sold our US small caps in January and bought ex-US small caps.  They have had a nice run.  It seems like the market will still here until the Fed withdraws support (2015?)

I started a data science specialization in May, I'm 3 courses in.  Very interesting and I'm enjoying the learning.

Memorial weekend 2014

Where we're at:
S&P: 1900.53
Dow: 16606.27
10 yr: 2.54%
VIX: 11.36
S&P P/E: 25.58

1 yr: 5.8%

equity: 36
bond: 41
cash: 22

Wow..fast 5 months, although the time goes a little faster when you aren't worrying about layoffs every single work day.  Anyway..son finished high school and will attend a life skills school for transition assistance. Spouse is fretting about her job, because she is struggling with her quota.  I think her company likes to buy smaller software firms, milk the sales revenue out of them, and then let them fade.  Hopefully, I'm wrong about that.  TXT is having a nice run, first quarter was weak like normal, but the Beech acquisition will probably be very lucrative, I hope so, because I will need my pension.  At 23x earnings it still seems high, if the latitude does not deliver, the stock may get hammered back down.

Like everyone else, I'm waiting for a drop, but I still have a significant amount in equities, just buying through 401k and IRA for now and mostly overseas stuff.  One year at current job, seems to be going well.  I got tapped for some training this week, because I'm a 'high performer'.  Hopefully a summer bonus will follow. Spent a little on the house this spring (new windows), but will defer the car for another year.  I love my camry and there is no reason to get rid of it.  Probably no vacation again, just a few weekend runs to regional spots.  House will be paid for in 2 years, my goal is to have the expensive infrastructure stuff done before I leave IT for good.

2014 begins....

Where we're at:

SP500: 1831.37
Dow: 16469.99
10yr: 3.00%
SP P/E: 26.16
VIX: 13.76

equity: 36
bond: 40
cash: 24

1yr: 8.1%

Great year...for stocks.  What worked: US and (sort of) internationals.  What didn't: TIPS, LT bonds, REITS.  Had those except for LT bonds, still I beat my benchmark of (US/Int'l stocks; TIPS; ST bonds; commodities), so a good year overall.  Work is steady, no layoffs on the horizon, company is having a better year.  Spouse had a down year, quota wise and did not have a good review.  I was quite surprised, but I told her that I have 'her back'. 

She is getting ready for a new year marketing kickoff and a new boss, so I hope she will have a better year.  I appeared to have sold my TXT too soon, but I'm happy with the price and the gain.  I could not come up with a reason for the continued rise except for either short covering or the rumored (now true) Beechcraft acquisition.  Even with spouse's job a bit unsure, I have not been this optimistic in 5 years, I might even buy a new car this year.  I sold my US small caps and bought some ex-USA small caps, exchanging a 40 PE for a 22.  The irrational market will come down eventually...

Dow 16,000....

Where we're at:

Dow: 16067
s and p: 1804.76
10yr: 2.75%
s and p P/E: 25.41
vix: 12.26

equity: 35
bond: 40
cash: 25

1yr: 7.8%

The upward climb continues, thank you fed.  I did my own bit of tapering however, I swapped out our retirement funds from a 2025-2035 exposure to a 2015 to reduce our stock holdings.  When the market corrects, (it should sometime right?) I'll rotate back to a 2020-2025.  That is a cool way to rebalance without tax issues.  I sold the last of my TXT a couple of weeks ago, since it's back over 30 and made a nice 25% profit.   Not sure what is moving the stock, no obvious good news, CSNA may have a good quarter (the 4th usually is), but probably not good enough to move the sub into the black.  Next year should be better, when the new models begin delivering.  Still wish I could have gotten on with Bell.....

I'm beginning to consider IAU again, but I think it has a bit further to fall.  I've also started learning about options just to expand my mind a bit.

Work is ok, another team member is exiting, but staying with the company.  It's a good move for her, still 3 in 9 months seems a bit high.  Although, it was clear the other two were going to be short-timers, as they have no interest in our team's focus area.  I'm now trying to predict when our lead will exit, as it is clear he wants to move up and out.  Since the obvious replacement is this last departure, who knows what will happen when the lead moves on. 

Spouse's work is also ok, she's still having a good year, as is LOGM.  She's getting ready for Cancun and warmth.  I probably have one more post in me before 2014, to think about moves for next year.

Getting comfortable....

Where we're at:

DOW: 15,258.24
s&p: 1691.75
10 yr: 2.62
s&p P/E: 24.19
VIX: 15.46


equity: 37
bond: 32
cash: 31

YTD: 4.8%

Since my present employer is not in the turmoil my previous employer is, I don't feel the need to post as often.  Sorry, if anyone is following.  Over the summer, my team has had some turnover.  One guy left in May, another in August.  I think they just got tired / bored with the work.  I think it may make my spot a bit more secure.  But unlike previous, if these guys decide to can you, it will just happen.  Lead says I'm doing fine, and I don't worry about the 'layoff cloud' hanging around anymore.  If it happens, it happens.

Spouse is doing fine, she is off to Boston in Oct and Cancun in Jan.  She should make it through the year and get her 3 year payout.  Most days are ok for her, but she struggles with sitting and making phone calls.  TXT announced a small fighter jet last week, designed by CSNA (so that's what was going on in the glass house for 2 years....).  I hope it can get some traction, it occurred to me this week that layoff time is coming around again, typically early October.  The public stuff coming out of the company is not great, still slow.  Another earnings call is coming up as well.  The market is waiting for any kind of positive jet number, if that comes, TXT will cross 30.  I only have a few shares and with the new programs coming on-line next year, deliveries could tick up.  So, I'll hang on for a bit longer, try to get low 30's for my shares.

I dumped the IAU I bought in the spring, gold seems to be in a long term downward trend, except for a few rallies when the congressional idiots rattle their swords.  I also stared building an international bond position for the long term now that V has the funds.  Our house repair work is complete this month, so most of the interior and exterior is in good shape.  We're starting to think about staying here after the house is paid for (~3 years).  We could do worse.

Settling in.....

Where we're at:

DJIA: 15,115.57
s&p: 1630.74

10yr: 2.16

s&p PE: 23.89
VIX: 16.30

equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
 
1yr:  6.2%

After ~90 days, I'm settling in to my new role.  The friend who clued me in to the job is leaving the area, it's a shame to see him take off.  It still feels different, but not weird anymore.  I'm hanging on to my TXT (140 shares), we'll see if the new models can spark an uptick.  V started their new int'l bond funds (finally), after the target allocations are made, I'll see if we need to buy any more for a 20% stake.

I finally bought some IAU, just for insurance and just a few shares.  I'd like to get it to a few thousand then forget about it.  But, I'll only buy as it drops.  It's almost time to buy some more REITs and int'l equities as well, they're coming off their highs, so I'll watch them.  I'm also wanting to buy some KMR when it comes back some.  Had a little SQL consult gig in May, to chip in some $$ and keep my SQL knowledge up.  I'm due for my first review at the new place (3 months), it should go ok.

No vacation this year, our house needs repairs after a May hailstorm, plus we have medical stuff to do over the summer.  Son turned 18 today, wow the last 10 years have flown by.  Work support this week has made me even more determined to 'kiss' off IT at 60 and be a Y towel boy :). 

TXT bulls get it wrong....

Where we're at:

Dow: 14,547.51
s&p: 1555.25
10yr: 1.70
s&p P/E: 22.82
VIX: 14.97

equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33

1yr: 5.3%

Well...the call on 4/17 was brutal.  Scott D. announced a production reduction for 2013 preceded by voluntary layoffs (about 1 a year at CSNA for the past 5 years, if you're keeping score).  He finally seemed to throw in the towel again and acknowledge that buyers are waiting for a price pullback that he does not want to play.  Seems like a reasonable strategy.  It appears that maybe jet buyers are also waiting for new model deliveries to materialize.  I sold some shares on 4/11 (30.02), glad to cash them in.  I hold ~150 now.  Toward the end a very interesting discussion took place around the 2015 time frame, when Bell may be ramping down the V-22.

I recall the activity in 2009 around Columbus and how those folks got their deposits back, maybe being burned once is causing some hesitation to commit.  He was also asked about the dividend and replied that no increase is forthcoming.  So maybe the yahoo message board will get the 'message' and stop blathering on about a dividend increase being just 'around the corner'.

Anyway,  I also took this opportunity to buy some IAU, I hope to build a position over the year, if the metal continues to drop.  We appear to be going into the typical spring pattern of the last few years.

New job is going ok, still feel 'dumb' but I'm coming along.  Spouse seems to be getting deals done again, hopefully that will continue throughout the year.
 

New job.....

Where we're at:

dow: 14512
s&p: 1556
10 yr: 1.91
VIX: 13.57
s&p P/E: 23.27

equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33

1yr: 4.7%

I changed jobs in March, opting for (I hope) a bit more long term security.  Spouse is having a much better March, the first two months of the year were very slow for her and her company.  We'll see how the year goes.  So now we're adjusting to a bit less pay, new insurance coverage, and a bit less tax deferred savings, but I think it will be a good trade off.  I will continue to watch TXT as I have some shares and I am interested in how the company makes out this year.  S&P is still targeting a $39 price, hope they're right, but I don't see it.  The biz jet predictions have been too optimistic for 3 years now.  The call in April will be interesting.

Shortly before I resigned, our team's manager told us he was leaving for a new IT job with another TXT division.  We all knew it was what he was going after when he came on to our team.  We'll see how he does.  I met the new manager shortly before I left, the team seems to be adjusting to that person, although she left for vacation the first week she was in charge.   There have been some rumors of IT staff leaving in Texas, I think some were involuntary.  I feel a bit sorry for my peer, it sounds like I will be replaced, but who knows how long that will take and he'll be probably on-call a bit more than before.

I have been in my new job about 2 weeks now, the people have been friendly and the work seems to be what was advertised, but we'll see....

I am waiting for a pullback, before I invest more spouse IRA money, the goal is still to empty her rollover cash into equities, but the market seems too high right now.  I like everything else we own, except for some of the TXT stock :)

March 2013.....

Where we're at:

Dow: 14089
s&p: 1518.20
10yr: 1.85%
VIX: 15.36
s&p P/E: 23.39

equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 33

1yr: 4.7%

Well...the sequester happened and the world hasn't ended yet.  Not sure what the impact to TXT will be.  The stock took a hit on Friday, -1.32%.  I remember Scott D. was pretty confident we would not get to this point during the 2012 Q3 call, wonder what he thinks now.  Our group manager is off to bigger and better, it is a good move for him and deserved.  Not sure what it means for our team.  We've been put on notice that our application is not meeting expectations and we have to step up our performance.  Spouse is having a rough start this year so far, I think the economy is just holding everyone back (what's new?).

We gave back some gains in February, the AAII index is pulling back as well.  People have easily given up their bullish outlook, me I'm waiting to buy again :)  I'm learning about technical analysis to take some of the emotion out of when to sell, it is kind of fun, though I still like our holdings.  My goal is to invest a chunk of cash in spouse's IRA.

Great January....

Where we're at:

Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89

equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34

1yr: 6.1%

Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines.  The AAII  survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell.  I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase.  I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.

The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop.  I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore.  Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets.  Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions.  CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...

2013...recessionary?

Where we're at:

Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83

equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33

1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)

The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done.  Only 2 months until the next one.  Our year went well.  Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years.  She can sell when she is motivated.  For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend.  Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :)  We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year.  I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance.  Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.

What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs

What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)

Who knows when cash will pay anything again. 

Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment.  Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit.  The 1/23 call will be interesting.  I fear the layoff  'clouds' may be gathering again....

Same old, same old...

Where we're at:

Dow: 13025.58
s&p: 1416.18
10 yr:1.606
VIX: 15.87
s&p P/E: 21.64

equity: 33
bond: 33
cash: 34

1yr: 6%

The election is over, but we seem to have the same result.  More arguing, and no compromise.  The 'do-nothing' congress is content to keep the economy in recession.  However, Mr. Market seems to have an agreement priced in.  The chatter on the message boards seems to be subsiding and even turning a bit negative for TXT.  I think they finally realized that a dividend increase is not forthcoming and we're going to continue funding new projects. 

I'm a bit unsure about what to throw new money at.  Equities seem a bit overpriced and due for a drop, especially if no agreement occurs by the end of the year, however I like what we own and I don't want to sell anything.  I think I'll reach a rebalance point for TXT before the end of the year and will sell some of my shares.

3rd qtr 2012..

Where we're at:

DJIA: 13343.51
s&p: 1433.19
10yr: 1.77%
s&p P/E: 22.48
VIX: 17.06

equity: 33
bond: 33
cash: 35

1 yr: 8.7%

The TXT call was last Wednesday. Mostly positive, but the company did not meet estimates and was slammed hard (-6%).  Fairly easy to predict, the ("elephant in the room" ) jet manufacturer reported lower deliveries.  The CEO was hit hard throughout the call to forecast 4th qtr and 2013 demand but he held back. The pundits seem to think that the entire business community is (still) waiting for Washington to "grow a pair" and work together.  Hopefully that will happen, but who really knows.  On Thursday, a major CSNA competitor, reported that its efforts to become acquired by a China company were not successful and TXT recovered nicely. 

If I worked for Bell, I would be wondering what I have to do to get some respect?  All they have done is exceed forecasts and deliver strong revenue for the company for the last 2 years.  They continue to have an open position that I have created a draft app for, but I can't seem 'to pull the trigger'.  Part of me is nervous abut the whole defense sequestration stuff and I'm concerned that the v-22 will get cut.  The rest of me thinks we're better off here with my spouse's gig.

Good year for us so far, we're pushing the needle to the right, like I hoped.  A few more years like this one and I may be able to call it a career at 60.  Trying to keep a lid on expenses for the remainder of 2012 and fully fund our HSA and roths.

cruise into the election....

Where we're at:

DJIA 13,610.15
s&p: 1,460.93
10 yr: 1.73%
s&p P/E: 22.91
vix: 14.33

equity: 33%
bond: 33%
cash: 34%

1 yr: 8.7%


I watched the debate on Thursday and became more impressed with Romney.  I don't think it would be the worst thing to happen if he won.  As I have thought, I'll vote for the person that can get Washington to 'work' again.  If it's him, he'll get my vote.  The employment rate surprise on Friday, does seem suspicious, but Welch is an idiot with his tweet.  The guy needs to 'dry up and blow away'. 

The year we're having is a pleasant surprise, up almost 9 for the year.  I like what we own and don't plan on selling anything yet.  But, if TXT hits 30, I'll unload some.   Spouse continues her great year, she is off to headquarters in a couple of weeks.  I actually told her I'll keep an open mind about relocation, if it's ever brought up.  I think I'd have an easier time finding a new job on the East Coast, if the need arises.  We'll see what happens after 10/17 when the 3rd quarter is announced.

more Fed accomodation?

Where we're at:

s&p: 1437.92
dow: 13306.64
10yr: 1.66%
VIX: 14.38
s&p P/E: 23.10

equity: 33%
bond: 30%
cash: 35%

1yr: 5.2%

After the 2nd qtr beat, not sure how the 3rd qtr will be.  The macro environment is still 'up in the air' (pun).  The public face is positive, CSNA programs our moving along and BH is doing well.  My morale is still shaken from the June layoffs, but I can't worry about what I can't control.  I'm continuing to increase my visibility and learn new skills.  I'm still looking for a work use for Hadoop, but I'm enjoying using it to track the 50 day average of various stocks :)  Spouse continues her great year, she knocked it out of the park again in August.  Glad LOGM lets her fully fund her 401(k).

The market continued to shake off bad news, probably because the ECB is still publicly backing a wide scale bond buy program.  China is expected to ease over the weekend, that may drive the movement early next week.  The US market thinks the Fed will continue its ways because of the poor jobs report.  I still haven't decided who to vote for in Nov.  Whoever will get Congress working again will get my vote and that's probably the repub.

Q2 2012...

Where we're at:

DJIA: 12,822.57
s&p: 1362.66
10 yr: 1.46%
s&p P/E: 21.89
VIX: 16.27

equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35

1yr: 2.1%

The TXT earnings call was this week (19).  TXT had a good quarter overall, including CSNA.  An increase in jet deliveries bumped up earnings and profits vs 2011.  Still, the call was cautious, the analysts seemed to be baiting the leadership to increase guidance, but there was nothing doing.  It seems prudent given the state of the world economy now.  There was also a lot of discussion towards the end about HBC and whether TXT had in interest.    Some of the TXT message boards seem comical.  The comments complain about the dividend.  It appears that these people aren't paying attention.  HELLO, TXT has a number of R&D and new programs ramping up simultaneously.  The company is not going to raise the dividend AND rollout 3 new airplanes. 

Spouse took two trips this month (Boston and Mexico City), she crushed it in June.  But July will be a down month because she has been gone.  I had my mid-year review, it went ok.  I guess since I didn't get canned in June, does it really matter?  The offshore team seems to be slacking off since 4 of them were cut, not sure they have much interest in our work anymore.  Looking forward to vacation...

Again!?

Where we're at:
DJIA: 12,880.09
s&p: 1362.16
10 yr: 1.66%
s&p P/E: 21.88
VIX: 17.08

equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35

1yr: .1

Withiut warning, IT had another (4th in 3 years?) reduction, 10 people cut on 06/28.  This one 'feels' different though, not just a cost reduction, but the 'business' saying "you people don't add any value, so you are GONE."  Several long timers and several who were assigned to a particular project that doesn't seem to be going very well.  Also in the month, 4 of the offshore people on my team were cut.  They're fine, I'm sure.  So, the layoff cloud moves back over and stays in place the rest of this year.  I'm not too nervous but I think most people better be looking over their shoulder.

Europe decided to intice people to buy risk assets again on 06/29 by coming up with an agreement to loan money to recapitalize their banks.  I rang the register twice this quarter on TXT, just reallocating within the overall portfolio.