Q2 2012...

Where we're at:

DJIA: 12,822.57
s&p: 1362.66
10 yr: 1.46%
s&p P/E: 21.89
VIX: 16.27

equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35

1yr: 2.1%

The TXT earnings call was this week (19).  TXT had a good quarter overall, including CSNA.  An increase in jet deliveries bumped up earnings and profits vs 2011.  Still, the call was cautious, the analysts seemed to be baiting the leadership to increase guidance, but there was nothing doing.  It seems prudent given the state of the world economy now.  There was also a lot of discussion towards the end about HBC and whether TXT had in interest.    Some of the TXT message boards seem comical.  The comments complain about the dividend.  It appears that these people aren't paying attention.  HELLO, TXT has a number of R&D and new programs ramping up simultaneously.  The company is not going to raise the dividend AND rollout 3 new airplanes. 

Spouse took two trips this month (Boston and Mexico City), she crushed it in June.  But July will be a down month because she has been gone.  I had my mid-year review, it went ok.  I guess since I didn't get canned in June, does it really matter?  The offshore team seems to be slacking off since 4 of them were cut, not sure they have much interest in our work anymore.  Looking forward to vacation...

Again!?

Where we're at:
DJIA: 12,880.09
s&p: 1362.16
10 yr: 1.66%
s&p P/E: 21.88
VIX: 17.08

equity: 31
bonds: 33
cash: 35

1yr: .1

Withiut warning, IT had another (4th in 3 years?) reduction, 10 people cut on 06/28.  This one 'feels' different though, not just a cost reduction, but the 'business' saying "you people don't add any value, so you are GONE."  Several long timers and several who were assigned to a particular project that doesn't seem to be going very well.  Also in the month, 4 of the offshore people on my team were cut.  They're fine, I'm sure.  So, the layoff cloud moves back over and stays in place the rest of this year.  I'm not too nervous but I think most people better be looking over their shoulder.

Europe decided to intice people to buy risk assets again on 06/29 by coming up with an agreement to loan money to recapitalize their banks.  I rang the register twice this quarter on TXT, just reallocating within the overall portfolio.

KeyValueTextInputFormat

After a bit of a lay off, I found some data to try a in a MR job.  My training used TextInputFormat, so I wanted to try a key/value pair for this dataset.  I copied my existing driver, map, and reduce programs and made changes to the driver and map code, then compiled and ran.  BOOM!  First, I didn't have the new input class declared, so I added that:

import org.apache.hadoop.mapred.KeyValueTextInputFormat;

I'm using a pipe ("|") for a separator, so I have this code:

conf.setInputFormat(KeyValueTextInputFormat.class);

conf.set("key.value.separator.in.input.line", "|");


Next, I fought through various type mismatch errors in the mapper.  Eventually, I came up with this code in the driver:
 
conf.setMapOutputKeyClass(Text.class);
conf.setMapOutputValueClass(IntWritable.class);
conf.setOutputKeyClass(Text.class);
conf.setOutputValueClass(IntWritable.class);

And this code in the mapper:
 
MyMapper extends MapReduceBase implements Mapper'<'Text, Text, Text, IntWritable'>'
public void map(Text key, Text value,OutputCollector'<'Text, IntWritable'>'output, Reporter reporter)

My generic mapper used a LongWritable for the key.  It appears that the key in this input format is a Text, which threw me.  The errors were a bit cryptic the first time, but after a few iterations, I caught on to the issue.  I loaded a small test file looking like:

1|this is the text
2|this is more text

The output looked like I wanted, words and counts, cool.

Env: 020.2 pseudo-distributed mode, CentOS on VM

Ouch...

Where we're at:

DJIA  12,369.38
S&P 500  1,295.22
10-Yr T-Note  1.70%
S&P P/E: 20.80
VIX: 25.10

equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36

1yr: 1.9%

It looks like Europe is going to bring the world economy down again for the 3rd year, S&P fell  -4.3% this week. Oh well...I am going to go on a a little shopping spree.  I'll add to our int'ls, high-yield bonds, and REITS, a little here and there as we step down from these levels.  My job is like a 'small cap stock', so I can't go crazy.   TXT came back down to earth as well.  I'll wait for some support and then sell to my desired allocation.  It looks like the "big boys" exercised some options in February.  I think I'll keep an eye on their activity more in the future.

Our group is cutting loose 4 of the off-shore team to trim our 2012 budget.  I'm sad to see them go, but they'll be fine, I'm sure the firm has work for them.  But, this may lead to more interesting work for peer and myself.  We'll have to see.  I'm continuing to gain experience in Hadoop, good for current and future opportunities, I think.  No changes to vacation plans in August.

Finally...

Where we're at:

dow: 12,820.60
s&p: 1,353.39
10yr: 1.84%
s&p P/E: 22.56
VIX: 19.89

equity: 31%
bond: 33%
cash: 36%

1yr: 3.5%

Wow, I finally made it, vested. It feels good, all 401(k) match is mine, plus a pension benefit. The first quarter was better than 2011, but CSNA still lost money. The call sounded better than last year, but who knows. For the third year, Europe decides to rain on the world's parade in April/May. Hiring is still sparse, but stable (so far). This summer, we'll celebrate the fact that we both have jobs by taking a real vacation. Our bathroom remodel is done, so no more home upgrades for awhile.

Spouse is doing well, the LOGM acquisition seems to suit her and her work style. The market seems to find a floor around 12,900 (dow). While EUR is down, I'm taking this opportunity to pick up some more int'l stocks to get back to our target allocation. I'd like to exchange some corp bonds for some high yield, but they seem a bit pricey, so I'll wait.

More Hive fun...

I have been spending time learning Hive using the VM (CentOS) on my laptop. I have loaded a few hundred job logs and begun querying for analysis. I am continuing to meet with the Linux server team to install the Hadoop framework on RHEL. I think they'll have it for me by the end of May. Next, I'm going to demo Hive to my EDW team and write a M/R wordcount app processing long text we extract from SAP. I'm still trying to build some momentum around the tool.

Using Hive ...

This weekend, I started working on my pilot and I contemplated map reduce vs hive. Since my background includes extensive SQL use, I opted to give hive a try. I loaded 100 log files from our ETL server into hdfs, loaded them using hive, and began running queries to process the data, looking for the longest operation in our transformation operations. While I'll probably need MR for better text parsing, hive is very cool for high level processing.

Next week, I'll discuss installing hadoop on a linux server for a pilot.

met with EU team ....

This week I met with the consultant and the EU team to learn about their app and possible uses for Hadoop. I also met with our infrastructure team about installing CDH on a single node Linux server in pseudo-distributed mode for an application idea I have.

The EU team is very excited and thinks they have a use case for the platform. I'm not sure if I'll have the opportunity to participate or if the project will get funded, but I do think I'll get to "show off" Hadoop with my smaller app. I'll update the blog in early April after I meet again with the infrastructure team.

Stranger in a strange land .....

I'm starting a new series on my experiences with the Hadoop stack. I attended training and passed the developer cert test in February. The technology is very cool and could potentially extend this gen-X person's IT career by a few years.

My background is RDBMS and various programming languages. I'm not going to write about what Hadoop is, there are already plenty of articles about that. This will be my experiences in trying to learn and stand-up an environment and complete a project with business value.

In our DW, we're starting to collect a large amount of text data from various SAP tables. I'm not sure if any of it is used currently, but this looks like a good place to start. I'll see if I can carve out some space and cycles on one of our servers and create a pseudo-distributed environment.

What a start....

Where we're at:

Dow 12,801.23
s&p: 1,342.64
10yr: 1.97
s&p P/E: 22.43
vix: 20.79

equity: 31
bond: 33
cash: 36

1 yr: 2.9%

The market has gone (almost) straight up, probably because the mood is improving in the US and there is optimism that a Greece "kick-the-can" decision is coming. But, the nasty Greeks decided to take the market down a bit on 2/9. TXT reported a small loss due to one-time items for 2011, but guided higher for 2012, so the stock has gone straight up. I rang the register in early January to get below my 10% mark, but I'll probably be selling more before spring if it continues to rise.

Work has been crazy, unfortunately, all support. But, it looks like my training class will happen (surprise). Peer continues to suffer through his neck and back problems, he makes me hurt when I watch him get up and move around. I don't how he'll work to 65. We submitted our goals for the year, hopefully we'll get to work on the stuff we have planned. It seems like people are all of a sudden using the warehouse reports more than they used to, not sure why. We have had a lot of support because of incorrect results and we have shot ourselves in the foot twice during major process runs.

The mood seems to be positive, so far. Projects are being planned and I see and hear contract labor moving in and doing work. So, I'm optimistic for 2012, but we'll see what happens later this spring.

January 2012....

Where we're at:

DJIA: 12422.06
s&p: 1289.09
10 yr: 1.853
s&p P/E: 21.21
VIX: 20.91

equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37

1 yr: 0.91%

The market made a bit of a comeback this week (dow up ~60 points). The s&p is staying above its moving average (~1250). I've done some trades lately, TXT at 19.10 and JNK at 38.60. JNK to exchange into V high yld corp. TXT because I was approaching 10% in 401k. This week TXT made a move on rumors the company may explore spinning off businesses to increase value. Who knows, there may be a comment during the January call. Goals for this year include: decreasing cash in spouse's IRA. max out HSA, increase 401k contributions, and staying employed (as usual).

Work is starting off ok, spouse's company's acquisition to LOGM closed this week. I think she'll be fine for the next year or two. CSNA will continue to muddle along, hopefully we'll deliver enough planes to keep employment stable. I'm still optimistic this will be a good year for me, but we'll see. 4 months to go.....

Goodbye 2011....

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,217.56
S&P 500 1,257.60
10-Yr T-Note 1.87%
s&p P/E: 21.04
VIX: 23.40

equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36

1 year: 1.27%

Well, another year of the great recession complete. Spouse and myself remain employed. She had a great year, best for her in awhile. TXT (and CSNA) muddle through, December should have been ok. I managed to beat both my benchmark (-2.1) and the S&P (flat) in 2011.

What worked: TIPS, REITs, tax exempt bonds, high yield bonds, in other words, bonds.

What missed: non-US equities and TXT. Oh well, maybe next year.

No matter what the pundits say, everyone should own some bonds and (yes) some dividend paying stocks. I'm sure the experts will be shorting bonds (of all sorts) in 2012. Luckily, we bought most of ours in the early part of the decade. About the only thing I'd like to buy next year is some GLD, I tried in December but it went above my price.

Next year:

1. Continue my data mining and big data "homework" and position myself for a project role.
2. Make it to May and get vested.
3. Buy some GLD.
4. Look around if the market improves.

Home: Remodel the main bathroom, finally. Regardless of employment situation and the economy.

As for the national presidential election, if the repubs nominate anyone but Romney, I'm voting for the President.

No IT layoffs in 2011....

Where we're at:

Dow: 12019.42
s&p: 1244.28
10yr: 2.04%
s&p P/E: 20.82
VIX: 27.52

equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 33

1yr: 5.10%

After a rough start, November recovered a bit during the last week. The US economy does not appear to be failing off a cliff, but Europe is "toying" with the world markets. Apparently Europe was closer to a Lehman event than previously thought, evidenced by the world central bank announcement on Wednesday. I'm still not sure how December will play out, but I'll be happy to collect my yearly dividends and wish this year goodbye (or good buy).

For the first time in 3 years, no IT layoffs. I think we've had enough voluntary turnover to keep our FTE count under control. Management seems to think that we have the right staff for 2012 as well. Our new director has some interesting work planned for 2012, I hope it pans out. I'm due to vest in May, we'll see how the job market looks next summer.

European roller coaster....

Where we're at:

Dow: 11796.16
s&p: 1215.65
10yr: 2.01
s&p P/E: 20.34
VIX: 32

equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40

1 yr: 3%

The Europeans seem bent on knocking down the world economy and thumbing their respective noses at the rest of the world. So, we have another weekend of wondering what will occur Sunday night. I continue to 'dribble' money into JNK and our target funds. The world goes on and we're not getting any younger.

The company continues to leak people and not replace them. Our department attrition appears to have stopped, probably for this year. But, I predict that we'll lose more people next year, especially if IT continues to perk up. Our new director is saying the right things going into the new year, we'll have to see if his ideas happen and we get a chance to work on them. Our lead continues to micro design everything, hopefully we can break that cycle some next year. Rumor is we're doing ok this quarter.

good quarter...

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,808.79
S&P 500 1,238.25
10-Yr T-Note 2.20%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 31.32

equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37

1yr: 0.9%

After 5 straight down months, October seems primed to finish up. However, it depends on what happens in Europe this upcoming week. I think Germany and France are screwing around because they know they can. I added to JNK through the month and was rewarded for it. Like the 7.5% yield, next up MLP, but still researching options. Still trying to move the needle 1% to the right.

TXT reported on 10/19, with a surprise (.45 vs .31). Still the analysts aren't going to be head faked, S&P and Citi peg the 52 week high at $21. The call was less about the macro conditions and more about how each business is doing, good to hear. Peer and lead are out this upcoming week so I'm on my own, including no offshore support on 10/26 due to a holiday. The new director seems better than we thought, I like him so far. I should be out of the woods for 2011, but still holding my breath for 2012. We'll see. The tone around the shop is more about how understaffed we are, please. I think we may be right-sized finally.

Glad that quarter is over....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,913.38
S&P 500 1,131.42
10-Yr T-Note 1.92%
s&p P/E: 19.45
VIX: 42.96

equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38

1 yr: -1.83%

Wow, the whole market goes as Europe is going. Up, down, up, down. It seems like commodities have joined the party, gold included. Oil is going down, probably because of weaker forecasted demand (and economic growth). I bought some last month, to begin moving out of cash and bonds. I am going to build a JNK position to "move the needle". Also, moving spouse's IRA cash position to some equity and REIT (love REITS). Goal is to squeeze out another 1%.

Work is stable, new director seems ok to work for, so far. The TXT call will be on 10/19, that and NBAA will drive morale for the remaining part of the year. Still no negative workforce rumors and project work is continuing. Peer leaves for medical leave on 10/10, so I'll be solo for awhile.

quotes..(paraphrased)

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant." - Keynes
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Buffett
"Arrogance lowers IQ."

Spouse gets a raise....

Where we're at:
DJIA 11,509.09
S&P 500 1,216.01
10-Yr T-Note 2.08%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 30.98

equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%

Spouse had her first review since she changed companies in 2009 (layoff), it went well. She received a raise. I'm very proud of how she picked herself up off the ground, dusted herself off, worked her network, and found a job without a gap in employment. I'm about 6 weeks away from feeling like I'll vest. The mood still seems ok, not great but not overly depressing. The company continues to 'leak' employees away from all areas without replacing them. It probably makes those of us who hang around, a bit more secure. Our team has a new manager, a director no less. The person we worked for is now a peer, although without any change in grade or pay (probably). We think he'll like that better.

The market had 5 up days, the consensus this week is that Europe won't disintegrate and the Euro may survive, so the 'risk trade' is back on. I managed to put some more money in junk bonds last week, slowly building a position to keep for awhile. We're also going to max out the HSA to save for future expenses. We'll probably start on our bathroom remodel in late September or early October. Dice seems to have more tech jobs, I hope that is a good sign.

Birthday....

Where we're at:

dow: 11,240.26
S&P: 1,173.97
10yr: 1.99%
VIX: 33.92
s&p P/E: 20.18

equity: 29
bonds: 31
cash: 39

1 yr: 4%

Work group peer announced that he needs surgery on his neck, probably in September. So, I'll be solo for a few weeks. The jerk in me thinks that this may keep me from being laid off, but who knows with this place. I think he is nervous about the surgery and what happens while he is gone. Another month-end coming up, we'll see if the numbers get any better. It really is a slow slog out of the this mess.

Another IT employee left in the last two weeks, unoffically, I think that hits my prediction of 10, which includes the TLP people who moved on. Yet we continue to post new jobs (not IT) and staff offshore people and contractors. I think the analysts are waiting for the Oct conference to decide whether we're 'for real' this year.

shopping...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,817.65
S&P 500 1,123.53
10-Yr T-Note 2.07%
s&p P/E: 19.39
VIX: 43.05

1yr: 2.94%

equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38

Another volatile 2 week period (up, then down), maybe a recession, maybe not. Maybe the Euro survives, maybe not. It seems to be in Germany and France's hand and the US debt downgrade also (from AAA to AA+). I'm not sure what this will mean for TXT, it's been getting hammered (down from 23.41 to 15.21 for the month). One of my team had a skip-level meeting with the CIO. It sounded optimistic, reorg, but no layoffs, we'll see. My lead seems to be giving me a bit more responsibility. We're putting in our DB upgrade next weekend, he seems happy with how that went and is happy that my peer and I are keeping up with the work.

Meanwhile, I'm buying again, mostly stocks and in the tax deferred area. Still trying to get our tax deferred equal or greater than our taxable. Trying to be more 'greedy' than fearful.

S&P Downgrade...

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,444.61
S&P 500 1,199.38
10-Yr T-Note 2.56%
s&p P/E: 20.7
VIX: 32

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr: 4.07%

Recession fears have finally caught up with the US equity market and fears about Spain and Italy have driven down the European market. The dow has dropped about 1400 points in the last two weeks. I put some new money to work Friday in spouse's IRA. Glad I held back the 80K after the transfer. I think I'll have an opportunity over the next several months to put more to work. On 8/5 S&P downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+, probably due to the bickering during the debt ceiling debates.

This upcoming week brings another finance month end for CSNA, we'll see if we still have positive momentum going through the 3rd quarter. I had my 6 month review the last week of July, it went ok, but I will be guarded until at least November. However, we've saved enough to remodel the last room we have left, the master bathroom. So, we'll proceed with doing it.

debt ceiling countdown .....

Where we're at:

DJIAL 12,681.16
s&p: S&P 500 1,345.02
10 yr: 10-Yr T-Note 2.96%
s&p P/E: 23.77
VIX: 17.52

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1yr: 8.4%

What are these people thinking?! We can't let the U.S. default. But, we seem to be heading down that path. The market popped this week, seemingly due to positive 2nd qtr earnings. Next week will tell. The country is collectively holding its breath waiting for the outcome.

The TXT 2nd qtr call was on 7/20, it was uneventful. We reported EPS a bit better than expected so the stock popped the last part of the week. I may sell a bit more at ~30. I have my 6 month review on 7/27, the first one with the new supervisor, I think it will be fine, but I'm always nervous. CSNA continues to 'drip' people every week and not replacing them. No VLP announcement in June, so that was a good sign. Still, 50-50 to make May 2012.

4th of July 2011

Where we're at...

DJIA 12,582.77
s&p: S&P 500 1,339.67
10-Yr T-Note 3.20%
s&p P/E: 23.67
vix: 15.87


equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1 yr: 9.6%

The last week of June the markets stormed back, dow up ~5%. The explanation seems to be another delay for Greece declaring a default. The US economy continues to rock back and forth. Corporations raking in cash, consumers/workers hunkering down. I'm betting a down July or early August, the market has a debt ceiling raise priced in. If it's cut close or delayed, we'll have a drop.

Our team lost a member in June. He had been looking for awhile and needed to leave, he kept looking for an excuse and finally found another local job. Ironically, I applied for the same one, but was rejected. I suspect my options are limited in ICT if another layoff occurs. We've lost 7 in IT since the last layoff and I'm betting at least 3 more will walk by the end of the year (I already know of one more). I like my chances. My peer will be out for a few weeks due to surgery and I'm working to become more visible. But, we'll see. I feel much better about our spending this year, I did it right this time.

The party's over....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,951.91
S&P 500 1,270.98
10-Yr T-Note 2.97%
s&p P/E: 22.46
VIX: 18.86

equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37

1 yr: 6%

6 straight weeks of declines following a poor employment report on 6/3 (~50,000 jobs added, 9.1% unemployment). Deja vu from 2010, I'm concerned about the 2nd qtr call in July not sure what will be said. So, we pulled back on the home improvement stuff for now. Work is steady, the SFDC stuff seems to be going well. Glad I volunteered for it. IT management is sending out skip level meeting notices for late 2011 and 2012, that seems optimistic to me. I hope I'm around in Dec. when mine is scheduled.

Since the market is pausing, I'll start dipping a toe in with new money, not much just turning on some automatic stuff in tax deferred accounts.

waiting it out...

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1yr: 7.1%

May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.

The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.

4 yr anniversary...

Where we're at...

DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1 yr: 6.63%

The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).

This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.

Great April....

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,810.54
S&P 500 1,363.61
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 24.1
VIX: 14.75

equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 36

1 yr: 6.3%

Best April since 2007 and up DOW 4% for the month. I'll continue to monitor our small caps and "ring the register" if VBK gets over $90. So far, I've pulled out ~$6,000. Car expenses in May will put off our bathroom remodel but we'll get it done over the summer. Spouse is uptight about her first company review. I think she is over reacting, but she is so intimidated by her manager. We'll see.

CSNA is continuing to trim from the top, apparently a marketing shake up happened this week. Maybe we'll hear more later. Lead is letting me participate on a new project and I get to attend a training class in May. 2 more weeks until my 4 yr, then 75% vested and 3 weeks of vacation. Still think 50% chance to make 5....

six sigma certified...

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,341.83
S&P 500 1,319.68
10-Yr T-Note 3.41%
VIX: 15.32
s&p P/E: 23.32

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1 yr: 6.3%

This week I finished my six sigma cert, on time. I took my mentor to lunch yesterday to thank him for his help. He seems like he is doing ok. The TXT 1st quarter conference call is next week, it will be interesting to hear Donnelly's tone. Mentor said he was pleasantly surprised by the order numbers so far this year. Not great, but better. I'll turn my focus back on mining now that SS is done. It was interesting to hear the the MBB BI comments yesterday about the dashboards that have been rolled out. They don't seem to be being used.

I continue to 'hunker down' and stay prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. My raise kicked in this period (nice). We'll do some more work around the house, but we're not taking a vacation due to high gas prices and we want to save for a nice one next year. Cruise or fly to a coast and sit on the beach.

what a quarter...

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,376.72
S&P 500 1,332.41
10-Yr T-Note 3.45%
s&p P/E: 24.13
VIX: 17.40

equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37

1 yr: 8.1

The market is again shrugging off bad news (JPN nuke, Middle East) and concentrating on better domestic news (> job creation and slightly higher employment). It still seems like we're in the 'fed trade'. Buy risk, because risk less does not pay. I have one more IRA deposit for spouse's account (2010), then we're stopping for awhile. My plan is to make a bulk deposit into each of our accounts for cash and then wait for a drop. The 500 P/E is starting to make me nervous, not enough to sell, but definitely to buy.

I should finish my six sigma work this coming week and take my exam the following week. That will make my goal of obtaining the cert by my 4th anniversary. I'm almost comfortable enough to say I'll make it, but not quite. The layoff rumors are starting again, but the source is not reliable, so who knows. My gut says I'm safe for 2011, but who knows for 2012. It helps that there are only 2 of us.

events catching up with market...

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,858.52
S&P 500 1,279.20
10-Yr T-Note 3.28%
s&p P/E: 23.17
VIX: 24.44

equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37

1yr: 9.7%

The middle east and the turmoil in JPN finally knocked the market back a bit, but not enough for me to buy. It still seems overvalued and time for a 5-10% pullback. So, I'll continue to wait. I'm close on my six sigma project, by the time for my next entry the project will be done and I should certify in April. I'm feeling confident about making 4 years with TXT, but still give my odds at 50/50 for 5 years.

I'm still trying to figure our manager out. When we had a lead, he seemed content to bark out orders and expect them to be followed, now he wants recommendations. I may need to have a one-on-one for clarification. Our IT shop continues to trickle staff out, most seem to head for another aerospace shop. We were told that IT would have no new head count for 3 years, but staff leaving will be replaced. In a macabre way, it's better for the rest of us.

market beginning to struggle...

Status

DJIA 12,169.88
S&P 500 1,321.15
10-Yr T-Note 3.49%
s&p P/E 23.93
VIX 19.06

equity 32
bond 32
cash 38

1 yr: 9.7%

The market is beginning to show signs of struggling just as stragglers continue to buy. Between uncertainty about the future of QEx and the middle east, we're up one day and down the next. Oil is back over $100 / barrel and may choke off the US recovery. For us, I'm glad we have our bonds and cash. We've had a good run and I (still) look for a 5-10% drop. When that happens, I'll put some spouse IRA money to work. But I 'm not looking to sell any of our positions. I like all of our holdings.

Spouse's work is really moving along. CSNA is "same old, same old", more depressing aircraft stats. But, I'm hanging in there and I must be there for a reason. We may not take a vacation if gas goes over $3.50 / gallon, just like 2008. With my bike and a new rack, I'm content to drive around the area and get rides in. Still trying to make it until May and get to 4 years. I think I'll have lunch with my previous boss to get some insight on the current one. Still trying to figure him out. Six sigma work is almost done, I'm pushing towards a 3/31 goal.

onward and upward..

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,391.25
S&P 500 1,343.01
10-Yr T-Note 3.59%
VIX 16.43
s&p P/E: 24.33

equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37

1 yr 6%

The dow and s&p went up for the 3rd straight week. More and more personal investors seem to be getting off the sidelines and back into the market. That can't be a good sign. I'm still waiting for a 10-20% drop. Even TXT is having a nice run, but I'm glad I took some profits last month. I'll hold on until I get back to 15% of 401k.

I had a six sigma status meeting yesterday that went well. I'm on track to finish up my April. The weather has been cooperating and we've been able to ride this weekend. We're both getting anxious to ride more this spring. Next month, we'll pay some property taxes, buy a bike rack, and maybe a new patio sliding door for the house. Still cautiously optimistic, but waiting for more financial results from TXT.

dow 12,000....

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,092.15
S&P 500 1,310.87
10-Yr T-Note 3.65%
VIX: 15.93
s&p P/E: 24

equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37

1 yr 5.82%

The little market that could. All the pundits predict a correction, but the market is having none of it. Our US stocks continue to exceed my expectations and frustrate me from buying more, bonds are finally reacting to the Fed and economic growth expectations, the 10 year lept up to 3.65. Non US is behind but not by much, YTD +2.7 vs +4.25 for US.

Work is going along, the 4th quarter TXT call was cautiously optimistic, like last year. The rumor is all of the production furloughs have been cancelled, but I don't trust the source, so we'll see. A more reliable source says no salary furloughs in 2011. I'm becoming more optimistic that I'll make 4 years, but still not sure about 5. Spouse is doing well, she finished 2010 with a bang and seems to be getting the trust of her mgmt. Our taxes aren't as bad as I thought, the HSA really helps (a nice benefit from TXT). No refund, but with low liability, it's like a refund. However, I'd rather pay more and earn more interest on our cash. Maybe someday....

2010 PMP...

Where we're at

DJIA 11,787.38
s&p 1293.24
10yr 3.33%
VIX 15:46
s&p P/E 23.68

equity 31
bind 31
cash 38

1 yr 5%

Last week I had my last review with my previous supervisor. It went well, he had positive comments and recommended that I be promoted, I don't see that happening, but I'm feeling a bit more confident about making my 4 yr anniversary (May). If I make it, I'll be 25% more vested and start earning 3 weeks of time off. He met with me and my peer this week and mentioned a positive Dec and he does not foresee salary furloughs for 2011. I feel more confident than I have for 3 years. Hopefully, it won't be like last year. I'll take it slow financially until after the first two calls in Jan and April.

We got the 'green light' to begin a upgrade to 11g, that should help my marketability in case the ax does fall. I'll continue to work on data mining, but at a slower pace. I've reached the end of what I can absorb without more project work or in class training. I'll also finish my six sigma project and my cert this year. This year we'll remodel our main bathroom and save for new exterior windows. We're also thinking about a nice vacation.

Goodbye 2010...

Wow what a 4 month period, the s&p started September at 1049.72 and finished the year at 1257.64 up 208 points. The jump put a damper on my investment plans. I wanted to allocate spouse's rollover money into stocks, but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I sense some bull market capitulation, so I'll hold off until a correction. We have gone almost straight up for 4 months, so it's due.

What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.

What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.

2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.

Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed

Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.

Christmas 2010....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,573.49
S&P 500 1,256.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.39%
s&p P/E: 22.95
VIX: 16.47

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr: 4.81%

CSNA started their break on 12/24. I finally found the road bike that I've been looking for on the net. It looks great and has quality components, hopefully I'll love it. The place was dead on Thursday, a peer and I worked and left around 13:00. We had lunch with our laid off peer on Wednesday, he has found another job and seems very happy. It was the first time we saw him since early October. I'll stay in touch in case I need to look for something in 2011.

We had a good year in spite of the US economy. I must have done enough of the right things to stay employed, I'll continue to learn about mining and finish my six sigma cert. Right now, I just want to make to May 2012. By not acting emotionally, our portfolio recovered and even eeked out a small gain. The only regret I have is not reinvesting spouse's rolled over IRA, but who knew, the market was and still seems to be overvalued. I'll be patient and get in on a correction, which I'm confident will happen in 2011. We've had 3 straight up months and are due.

Bonds prices take a tumble....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,410.32
S&P 500 1,240.40
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 22.65
VIX: 17.61

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr 4.75%

The 10 year note spiked above 3.00 for the first time since June. The Bond Bullies seem to want to give the Fed a message. I hope they're listening. CSNA's CIO is leaving for TXT and the TXT CTO is coming here. So, who knows if all of her realigning will be dismantled. The 4th quarter has been good, I have been able to work all 3 months, something I had planned for in case it did not work out.

The new lead seems a bit more open minded than I thought, we'll see how the PMP process plays out next year. I have started the countdown to my 5 year anniversary at TXT, I hope I make it. I put my odds at 50%.

Thanksgiving 2010...

Where we're at:

Dow: 11092
s&p 500: 1189.40
10 yr: 2.8640%
s&p P/E: 21.69
vix: 22.22

equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39

1 yr: 4.18%

4 days off, including the weekend, yahoo! Well, we've worked for the benovolent dictator for about 2 weeks now and we're slowly adjusting to his style. I'm still not sure about him, but for now I'm trying to make it to May 2012 (5 yrs and vested). The rumor is October continued the downward spiral as far as the financials went. Hopefully, that was planned for. The production furloughs have been announced, but that's all. I'll still plan for a furlough in 2011 and possibly more layoffs. We're continuing to hold back on major things for ourselves.

A MS fixed income plan clued me into convertible bonds, so I'm going to move some bond gains over to convertibles and move down some in quality and up in yield with some potential for a stock gain when the bonds are converted. I'll start with a fixed price entry point about $2 below the current price. I'm also looking for an entry point for small cap non-US stocks so I'm prowling around until a mild correction to enter.

new boss....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,192.58
S&P 500 1,199.21
10-Yr T-Note 2.76%
s&p P/E: 21.87
VIX: 20.61

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr: 5%

Well, our lead is off to bigger and better and we report to the self described "benevolent dictator". He was joking, but I'm taking him seriously. We'll see how it goes. Officially, no back-office furloughs for 2010. We'll see about 2011. I'm focusing on keeping a positive attitude, getting what I can out of TXT, and getting vested. Spouse continues to rock on.

We had a dip this week as the market digests the mid-terms and QE2. Interests rates are perking up on the intermediate and long end, so we'll have to watch. EWC hit my target last week, so I sold my position. I should get more CND exposure at the beginning of 2011 when VGTSX is reconfigured to its new target index.

layoff drizzle...

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr: 5.0%

The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.

The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.

dodged a bullet (part 3)....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03

equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38

1 yr: 4.2%

Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.

As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.

More Layoffs.....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50

equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38

1 yr: 4%

What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.

On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.

No Strike...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,607.85
S&P 500 1,125.59
10-Yr T-Note 2.75%
s&p P/E: 20.56
VIX: 22.01

equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39

1 yr performance: 3%

The local machinists voted yesterday to reject CSNA's offer, but didn't have the votes to strike, so they will live with a 7 year deal. Glad that's over with, but now we wait and see how production and jobs are cut for 2011. I'm not worrying about what I don't control. Still no word on the IT reorg. The CIO is out next week, so probably no movement until the end of Sept. I was confident that our lead was going to get promoted, but now I'm not so sure. Surely people notice how much he is gone and that he comes in at 9:00 and leaves by 4:00 most days. Oh well.....

This weekend we (mostly spouse) attended a seminar on employment opportunities for special needs adults. It was very good. We also went on a tour of places that will assist those folks with working.

September 4 2010....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,447.93
S&P 500 1,104.51
10-Yr T-Note 2.71%
VIX 21.31
s&p P/E: 20.28

equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 39

1 yr 3.57%

Happy 49th to me. I drew the short straw and am on call this weekend, but that's ok. Perhaps I'll score some points with the group lead. Our team lead will probably learn his promotion fate this upcoming week. I still think he has a good chance to go up. It's a toss up what will happen to us, but I think we'll report directly to the group lead. Some pros and cons with that. Regardless there are some things he won't want to do that will roll downhill plus our rotation will only be 4 people.

The market had a bounce this week, ~65,000 net jobs created so it celebrated. Seems wacky, but it wants to go up on ANY good news. Two years and counting since Lehman Bros failed and jumpstarted this mess...

downward spiral resumes....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,213.62
S&P 500 1,071.69
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 19.68
VIX: 25.49

equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40

1 yr: 6%


The deadline for the new IT positions passed and I have heard of a few people who applied, including our team lead. I think he has a good chance to get one of the 3 manager spots under our director. I'd like to go for his current spot if that happens, but who knows. I think we will wind up reporting to the the architect. The contract talks started this week. I can't the union people striking, unless they want to kill the company. They know that if they strike, they can all be replaced, probably easily. The language is starting to get dark again (low orders, continued cancellations). I'm trying to not worry about what I don't control.

Health, family, home, job, investments in that order.

double-dip...?

DJIA 10,653.56
S&P 500 1,121.64
10-Yr T-Note 2.82%
s&p P/E 20.41
VIX: 21.74

equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 39

1 yr: 6%

We took a quick vacation this year to Taos, NM. While we were gone, the market tried to rally, running up several hundred points. After the July jobs report, it came back down early, but recovered for a small loss. The talking heads are sounding more like a double dip recession is likely. Another local aircraft company is threatening to move jobs to a lower cost state due to the state of the market. The Friday before our vacation our IT director brought us together for a meeting to discuss changes in the department. Three management jobs are opening up and she is getting the teams that report to them. She was almost giddy with excitement. The teams are being moved from another director, my guess is he's not pleased. It may be a sign that he needs to move on.

My bet is our lead will either leave or transfer out within 6 months. I've had a feeling about him for awhile, but it's pretty strong now. That would probably mean we'd all report to one guy (the architect). Which is probably how it should be. The guy only has 3 reports now. This place continues to be fat in head count, if things don't improve, more furloughs and/or layoffs will come. I think the shop could get by with under 100 staff. I think that would cut about 40 more people. I had my mid-year that Friday as well, it went ok. I still seem safe for now.

2nd qtr earnings call...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,424.62
S&P 500 1,102.66
10-Yr T-Note 2.99%
s&p P/E: 20.07
VIX: 23.47

equity: 28
bond: 33
cash: 40

1 yr: 5.52%

The TXT earnings call seemed short and to the point. We had a good quarter, bell especially, however CSNA is worried about a decline back to recession. SD predicts that 2010 will be the trough for this cycle, but who knows. Several times he mentioned that production is being evaluated. My guess is we'll finish out 2010 and maybe have furloughs in 2011. I started my six sigma training this week. I'm enjoying it so far. I think I have a project lined up. I still feel mostly calm about my job. Over the last couple of months, I've had training lined up and I get to meet the TXT CIO next week. I'll have my mid year PMP this week, it should be fine. Spouse is on a roll in her job and it seems more secure.

The market is bouncing around between 1000 and 1100. The 10 year went below 3 since the last post. It seems like the people that have jobs and aren't worried are keeping the economy moving, the rest of us are still hunkered down. We'll keep saving, when I finish my GB I'm going to reward myself with a new bike. I'll have earned it.

mid summer blahs...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,198.03
S&P 500 1,077.96
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 19.62
VIX: 24.98

equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40

1 yr: 6.1%

A positive article appeared about TXT in our local paper this week. Scott Donnelly was discussing the investing TXT is doing in Bell and CSNA. We've heard similar discussions internally as well. Perhaps the cost cutting is turning into LT investing. Our lead was on vacation this week, so his boss got a chance to see how things run in his absence. I think some eye-opening occurred. We're starting to get our group a bit more involved in the design and modeling process before the specs are given to the offshore team. Hopefully, the group manager will see some value to front-end work and send more our way.

As I was out running this morning, I began to brainstorm ideas to act less like a 'pig' (using Cramer's terms) and more like a bull or a bear. The older I get, the less I like being slaughtered when Mr. Market decides he is overvalued and the roller coaster goes down. My first thought is when the S&P falls below its 12 month moving average, start buying. When its P/E reaches 25, start selling. I'll do some more research and see how much we'd forsake on the top-end and how much we'd keep on the low side. The bears are becoming more numerous and vocal. The contrarians think that is a good sign, I'm not so sure.

VLP results

Where we're at:

Dow: 10,143.81
s&p: 1,076.76
10 yr: 3.11%
s&p P/E: 19.53
VIX: 28.53

1 yr: 6.49%

equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40

We received a workforce canning update last week, asking for volunteers 55 and older to take voluntary layoff, probably by the end of the year. I heard this week that 97 took the leave, 1 from IT. Lead thought that 300 were sought, a peer thought 100. The 2nd quarter wraps up this week, no news yet about how we're doing. The mood is still pretty somber around the place. I think we'll be like this through 2011 as well.

I decided to make a 401k shift this week. I don't like the Fidelity diversified int'l K and I don't need 3 funds, so I'm dumping the S&P and the Div K. I'll swap into a target date fund in 30 days after the Div K short term trading penalty period. I really like the target date funds because of the low expenses and the auto rebalancing aspect. Still no furloughs or forced layoffs, but we will see in July. The earnings call is July 21.

more storm clouds....

Where we're at:

Dow: 10211
s&p: 1091.60
10yr: 3.2160%
VIX: 28.79
s&p P/E: 19.8

equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40

1yr: 9.1%

We seem to be in a correction now, the dow is down ~1000 points from its April high. But, I'm on the prowl for tax deferred investing. I bought into a REIT during this week's drop for spouse's IRA. I'll keep an eye out to get her back into US and foreign funds as well. I'll continue with the plan to bulk up our retirement and let the taxable ride. Our bonds are like the energizer bunny, hanging in there and giving us some diversity. Local credit union CDs help also. Bought a water heater this week, the only new thing left on the home list is a new mower. We'll probably buy that before Sept.

I attended a 'skip level' meeting this week with the local CIO. It went pretty well, she seemed interested in our feedback and I kept my foot out of my mouth. Today we received a workforce canning update, asking for salaried 55 and older 'volunteers'. I'm waiting for a shoe to drop before the 2nd quarter analyst call. I'm strangely calm about it this year. I think it's because I've realized that it's not in my control. We'll plan and defer what we can and prepare and see what happens.

rough week...

The market flopped up and down this week, its sentiment apparently driven by the European activity on Greece and the other PIGS. The S&P and the DOW both finished down about 4%. The DOW is down about 2.25% YTD, s&p is down about 2.5% YTD. TXT bounced all over the place this week as well. Makes me glad I sold a bit at $22 in April. Spouse was mad this weekend that we did not go to a concert or out of town. She blamed me and thought I was being cheap and giving excuses. Sometimes she doesn't get what I do on the weekends. Chores and work take a lot of time and I don't particularly want to do everything on one day.

CSNA continues to make me nervous. If Europe starts to tank, that's one less potential market for airplanes. Who knows how the 2nd quarter is going, we won't know until a workforce planning update or the earnings call in July. This shop is ridiculous, two PMs to manage a dink departmental project. As I told the lead last week, all of the processes are around to support a bloated, self-important staff.

no forced time off in July...

Where we're at:

DJIA: 10620
S&P: 1135.68
10yr: 3.44%
VIX: 31.24
s&p P/E: 20.6

equity: 28
bond: 32
cash: 40

1 yr: 14.5%

Two weeks ago, the rumor came down that we'd be forced to take off during the first week of July. This is the normal 1 week facility shutdown for CSNA. This week, the IT head said that was not correct, so we can take vacation in August instead. I'm still optimistic, but will hedge by hoarding vacation time until the EOY. I still believe we'll have some sort of furlough this year. Group lead reported 14 orders from a European conference and we have >400 proposals out to people. So some optimism is warranted. This was a fast school year. Like I tell myself, the older I get, the faster time passes. A minor milestone, I crossed over 3 years this week at TXT.

progress on studies...

I'm about 2/3 through my data mining studies. The familiar material is over (basic statistics), now I'm reviewing classification theory. The videos in you tube are very good and follow the material well. Ever since I earned my Master's online, I felt that that would be the way to learn IT material. Brick and mortar won't die, but it doesn't keep up tech like online learning.

I enjoy being an Oracle DBA, but I increasingly believe that those skills are becoming a commodity and the ability to use a company's information will add more value that just backing it up and tuning querys. Data mining skills are transferable across industries as well, so my marketability should increase. Plus, it's always fun to learn new stuff.

mostly cloudy...

Lead and first level both mentioned no planned furloughs for now. We seem to have hit bottom in sales activity and may start climbing out. First level seems to think the place will be idle the first week of July, but we asked him to verify that. Even if things deteriorate, I'm not too nervous. I seem to be on the lead's radar and may start six sigma training this year.

Spouse had a surprise this week, a commission check. It looks like she will get them quarterly. Now that the twitter queen is gone, I think her "stock" will rise a bit. She just has to be careful about the "nug", who apparently offends easily. We're enjoying the new vehicle greatly and I don't feel a bit stupid anymore for buying it. Somebody has to keep the economy moving.

When life hands out lemons, make lemonade.

waiting....

Where we're at...

DJIA 11,204.28
S&P 500 1,217.28
10-Yr T-Note 3.82%
s&p P/E: 22.28
VIX: 16.62

equity: 30
bond: 30
cash: 40

1 yr: 17%

The TXT 1st quarter earnings call was this week. I listened in over lunch, the CEO seemed to be straight forward about his assessment. CSNA had a bad quarter, low orders and more cancels than expected, but not many more. He stated that the production rate will not change at this time. I interpret that to mean that it is being watched and could change later this year. The rumors are still strong that we'll be furloughed sometime in the summer. The other divisions are performing well, especially industrial.

Spouse's company lost an employee this week to Cerner in KC. They are now looking for 2 people. Hopefully the economists are right and job growth is beginning to occur. Regardless, it will be a long slog out of the muck.

storm clouds....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,997.35
S&P 500 1,194.37
10-Yr T-Note 3.89%
VIX: 16.14
s&p P/E: 21.86

equity: 30
bond: 31
cash: 39

1 yr: 10.22

The rumors are starting to fly again this year. Apparently CSNA had another weak quarter, orders were lowers than expected and cancellations were higher than expected, so more furloughs (I predicted) and layoffs (I didn't) are coming. Not sure how many, we'll probably get an idea around the end of April before the analyst call. I'm still glad we did our kitchen work, but feel a little stupid for buying the truck. My gut told me to wait until the end of April, but I couldn't. Oh well, we paid cash and we'll cancel the extended service contract to recover ~$1900. Spouse's job still seems solid and she may start earning commission this year.

I think I'll take unemployment for whatever we get this summer, then take vacation for any winter furlough. I still think my job is stable (good review, raise, tight with lead), but if things deteriorate, who knows. The pup survived last year and might be the first to go if we cut anyone. For now, I'll leave investments alone and continue funding retirement. I may cancel the CO trip this summer and we'll have to see about the cruise next year.

I will get a lot of riding in this summer and I'll continue plowing through my data mining studies to increase my marketability. I also may contact a previous colleague to see if he has any work.

Health, family, home, job, investments in that order....

car shopping...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,927.07
S&P 500 1,178.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.86%
VIX 17.47
s&p P/E: 21.69

equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40

1yr 10.92%

We finished the minor kitchen renovations this week with the new floor. The kitchen looks great, the installer did a great job on the countertops and the flooring. Today, we continue vehicle shopping at carmax. Hope everything I have heard is true about that place. We'll see if we come out with a vehicle today. Spouse is amped up. She started her SEP-IRA this week. I think it will be OK at MS. I am completing our 2009 Roth contributions. The TXT I sold a couple of weeks ago was a good call, it's back below 22.

up and down week....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,741.98
S&P 500 1,159.90
10-Yr T-Note 3.69%
S&P P/E: 21.35
VIX: 16.97

Equity: 29
Bonds: 31
Cash: 40

1yr: 11.42

After seven straight up days, some profits were taken. The market seems to be waiting for the health care ("Obamacare") vote this weekend. We have ~$1000 of 2009 Roth IRA contributions left so I'm anxious to get it invested, but I'm waiting for a downturn. I'm anticipating a drop next week, if so I'll take advantage and pop some money into equities.

I found a great resource to learn about data mining through you tube. I'm viewing the videos and I purchased a textbook to study. The videos come with homework. I'm hoping to add another skill to my bag of tricks. Spouse's job is progressing and we established the SEP-IRA for her. She is really getting the hang of the software. Her previous company was purchased by an Omaha telecom firm, West Corporation. The usual employment stuff will probably happen. The shared services people are doomed but the revenue and customer support staff are probably ok.

We still feel good and are feeling better every day. The new vehicle is still on the radar as well as a vacation next year. I reviewed the TXT 2009 annual report. The first two pages were upbeat, the rest made it sound like the company is on life-support (which it probably is). I'll continue to hold my breath through the remainder of 2010.

the sun is coming out...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,566.20
S&P 500 1,138.70
10-Yr T-Note 3.68%
VIX 17.42
s&p P/E 20.96

equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40

1 yr: 12%

This week I had a nice surprise...a raise, about 4%. For the first time in 2 years and the longest that I have had to wait since college. Spouse is in a groove and has settled in. Her boss has complemented her a couple of times this week. I think they are syncing up. It sounds like her company may even grow a bit this year. I still think we'll have furlough weeks this year so I'm planning accordingly.

I found a data mining video series on google this week, so I ordered the textbook and will make that my 2010 learning. I'm excited, I have been looking for something to attack for a few months. I'm done with the Oracle certs I think. I may also look at cloud/host computing later in the year. Financially, I'm going to think about converting some of our rollover IRA money to a roth.

fed makes a move...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,402.35
S&P 500 1,109.17
10-Yr T-Note 3.78%
VIX: 20.02
s&p P/E: 20.42

equity 28%
bond 31%
cash 41

1 yr perf: 8.39%

On 2/18 after the markets closed, the FED raised the discount rate from .25 to .50. While this was announced about a week ago, the market was taken by surprise because it anticipated the move to be later on. On 2/19, the market came down but recovered for a small gain. I have frozen 2010 IRA contributions to catch up for 2009. I continue to be more interested in spending than saving. Nothing in the investing world interests me now. Everything seems either too volatile (stocks), too expensive (gold), or rates are too low (cash). So, we'll buy new kitchen flooring, a new vehicle, and take a nice vacation next year. Maybe this is Obama's plan to stimulate the economy.

Work continues to be ok. I had my 2009 review, it went well. Lead seems to get 'it' that I could be doing more. Spouse continues to plod along. I hope she can last at least a year to get through her non-compete. I am going to keep an eye on Cisco opportunities. I think she could do well doing remote sales for them.

downward trend....

Where we're at:

DJIA: 10,012.23
S&P 500: 1,066.19
10-Yr T-Note: 3.55%
VIX: 26.11
s&p P/E: 19.33

equity: 27
bonds: 32
cash: 41

1yr: 7.68%

The market has come down for the last 4 weeks (~6%). I continue to invest the remaining 2009 IRA balance for both spouse and myself, buying on dips. 2009 showed me what "I am made of" and reinforced my belief in our holdings long term. I'll continue to not invest taxable funds, but will invest tax deferred to try and beat the taxman.

TXT had their 4th qtr earnings call this week. It was mostly downbeat but mentioned that 4th qtr jet orders were better than the previous 3 qtrs combined. In our staff meeting this week, the lead passed down notes from the CSNA SLT call. It was also mostly downbeat, all monitored indicators are still 'red'. However, IT projects are in the works for 2010 and will be announced next week. We may even get some training this year, and my data mining pilot was approved (now I have to find something). Spouse's work is steadily getting better, she is getting more comfortable and has not come home crying in several weeks (month?). We're both very fortunate to be working now and our jobs seem to smoothing out.

pull back...

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,172.98
S&P 500 1,091.76
10-Yr T-Note 3.60%
VIX 27.34
s&p P/E 19.79

equity: 28
bond: 31
cash: 41

1 yr: 7.89%

After the MS senatorial race ended in a win for the republicans, the market decided to pull back a bit. The dow lost about 600 points in a 3 day run. I decided to buy. I added some money to spouse's roth IRA. I'll continue to do that until we make all of our 2009 contributions to both. Spouse seems confident enough to start deferring income to SEP-IRA. I want her to just contribute up to the match. I still don't like her options. We'll also max the roth IRAs this year. Considering what we went through, 2009 turned out to be ok for us, financially speaking (amazing).

Happy new year...

Where we're at:

Dow: 10,618
s&p: 1144.98
10yr: 3.81%
s&p P/E: 20.76
VIX: 19.06

equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 41

1 yr: 7.17%

We finally finished our 2009 furloughs (yippee). Hopefully, our furloughs will be shorter in 2010, I carried over some vacation to cover any. My bet is 1-2 weeks in the summer and another 2 weeks next winter. I should be able to cover all of that with vacation. I did not take any unemployment comp in 2009, so I'll have that available if I need it. Spouse's job is progressing up the roller coaster again. She seems to be doing better, but we'll hold off on the SEP IRA awhile longer (Feb).

I noticed that Bell posted an architect position in Dec that sounds interesting. I asked my lead about it, he is going to make an informal inquiry. I doubt that it goes anywhere, but I'd like to follow up. I'll hold off talking to my spouse until I know something. We plan on the kitchen flooring in Feb, and a new vehicle in the spring.

I'm reading Jim Cramer's books to get a different perspective on investing. I've been drinking the buy-and-hold koolaid for so long that I need to consider other ideas. His hedge fund book was very good, a bit different from Andy Kessler's. Cramer describes the day-to-day grind, while Kessler describes raising cash and visiting companies. Both are very good. I think I may try to be a bit more active this year and try to ID some trends.

Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.

EOY 2009

Where we're at:

DOW: 10466
s&p: 1120.59
10yr: 3.74%
VIX: 19.71
s&p P/E: 20.32

equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39

1 yr performance: 7.25%

It's Christmas Eve 2009, we're both off work today. I am wrapping up my 7th furlough week, I start getting paid again. It looks like we'll finish the year up around 8% (not including short-term). Not bad, considering the last 15 months of activity.

What worked: staying the course, continued tax deferred investing, bonds, US/Int'l equity, tax loss selling

What didn't: short term investments

We have a large amount in ST just because our job situation was and is tenuous and will remain so through 2010. We'll continue our minor kitchen remodel and plan on buying a new vehicle in 2010. If spouse remains at new job, she'll enroll in SEP IRA. I've maxed out her roth contributions for 2010 and we'll defer some into the HSA. I'm anxious about our health care for 2010 since we're in a new high deductible plan. Onward, through the fog....

more turbulence...

Where we're at:

dow: 10471
s&p: 1106
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 22.32
s&p P/E: 20.06

equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39

1 yr: 12.3%

I plowed my spot award along with some spousal inheritance into a 6 month CD called our 'car fund'. We intend to replace our 11 yr old minivan in the spring, assuming no employment surprises. However, my spouse may get one. Her boss is weak at communication, either intentionally or not and has done a poor job of communicating expectations about her continuing employment at her new job. So, she may be unemployed again soon. However, I've told her not to worry about it and just do the best she can to meet the company's expectations. I'm not sure what will happen, my instincts say it could go either way. I think it depends on the mood this guy is in on any given day.

Because of that, I'm holding off giving the MS car salesman any information about our assets for her sep IRA. I shouldn't have pushed her to open the account, usually I'm careful about that stuff. Until about 30 days ago, she seemed to be doing fine. She is doing support, sales, and A/R. If she is canned, they'll have a hole to fill and the remaining geeks can't do the day-to-day marketing grind. I have tried to lift her up and encourage her. I think if they give her some more time, she'll be successful. We'll probably know something by the end of the month.

I have stopped worrying about my job. I think I'm safe for now, but it still depends on the economy. I have one more full week and then the last of the 2009 furlough weeks and holiday shutdown. Still I think I'm where I'm supposed to be and I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010.

The market continues to be too optimistic in my opinion, so no new buying for us.

health, family, home, job, investments...in that order

good week...

Where we're at:

Dow: 10309
s&p: 1091.49
10 yr: 3.23%
VIX: 24.74
s&p P/E: 19.86

equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39

1 yr 8.3%

I had my best week at CSNA prior to my 6th week of furlough. First, the project teams had a recognition lunch with members of the SLT and we received gift cards. Second, I met with my team's director and gave my data mining presentation. It went well, and she has some ideas on how to use the knowledge. During the meeting, she mentioned the possibility of training in 2010. Our lead mentioned that we would be getting a shared cell phone, so no more using personal phones for support. Finally, I received an award for my work on the project. I'm finally starting to feel like my work is being noticed and I may have escaped further layoffs.

Spouse is still nervous about her job, I think it's just "newbie" syndrome. We talked this week and she talked to a peer who told her she is doing fine. Still, we'll hedge and not replace the kitchen flooring until 2010. Still doing other things around the house though. Spouse also received an inheritance that we'll put to work in 2010.

In my opinion, the markets have still come too far, too fast, so we're not investing except for tax deferred and roth. I'm also putting money into the HSA for next year's expenses. Not sure what health coverage will be like, so more hedging on the deductable amount.

6th furlough week...

Where we're at:

Dow: 10226
S&P: 1093.08
10yr: 3.49%
VIX: 23.15
S&P P/E: 19.55

equity: 28.7
bond: 25.7
cash: 45.6

1 yr: -.85%

Well, I wouldn't have believed it, but we are almost back to even. Spouse's 401k has finally made it to V. I never thought it would take as long as it did. I suspect that the provider was taking interest that we could have been earning by delaying the distribution, oh well. This morning I put 50% in short and int term bonds. I'll DCA into stocks, once they back off a bit. There are no fundamental reasons for stocks to be this high and I learned my lesson from the last 5 years. She is getting enrolled in her company's SEP-IRA. It is with a full service broker (used car salesman), hopefully he won't try to shaft her.

Spouse seems to be doing well in her job, she had a sale last week after her first month and she has demos scheduled. I avoided the layoffs (for now). My job still seems to be safe. We had an "all hands" department meeting last week, that did not cover very much. It mostly rehashed the TXT earnings call. So no news about layoffs, furloughs, or raises in 2010. My gut says more furloughs, but no layoffs or raises, unless the economy gets worse or better. My S&P target is still 900 by 12/31.

As we have been discussing, we are going to spend a bit to improve some things around the house (minor kitchen remodel, termite treatment, and new hot water tank). We have been saving money the whole year to cover these expenses. We'll not be in a hurry, but will probably have it all done by Feb 2010.

a little nervous...

I'm in the 5th week of my furloughs. The "noise" coming from the company sr mgmt seems to be getting less negative. They are rumbling that the bottom of the cycle is near, however the rumors are flying that more furloughs are necessary next year (upto 10 weeks). So, I put our odds of one of us being laid off at ~50%. Spouse's job seems to be going well so far, she is in her 3rd week and she is making calls and doing software demos.

Before the 2nd layoff day at my place, I had my 3rd qtr PMP review. That seemed ironic considering what could have happened the next day. But my lead tried to put me at ease. He explained that our role will be changing some what next year. We may be doing more spec gathering and writing next year, as opposed to programming. I told him that was fine with me, but my sr peer may have issues with that. He only likes doing technical work. I feel better about my chances next year since the "pup" wasn't laid off either.

Spouse and I are busy moving her 401(k) to V. I think I have a reinvestment plan set up. She is getting an inheritance in the 4th quarter that we'll also need to invest. Being on furlough is causing me to spend more time than I should looking at our investments. The "instant-on" ability of the internet is dangerous that way. When I was constantly busy at WSU and Cargill, I let our investments go on overdrive. But, I think I have made some good choices the last two years to lower our tax liability and our costs. I'm debating on what to do with the new money. I may ask for some help. Not sure who to ask.....

It feels good to spend some money around the house. Our job situation has encouraged me to buy appliances, flooring, and countertops. We also have a couple of maintenance items (hot water tank and insect treatment) that I don't need to put off any longer.

still employed...

Where we're at:

dow: 9995
s&p: 1087.68
10yr: 3.41%
vix: 21.43
s&p P/E: 19.45

equity: 35.8
bond: 31.3
cash: 32.9

1 yr: 8.67

As rumored, the IT layoffs (2nd round) happened on 10/9. I managed to escape getting laid off. My lead knew most of the victims and told me yesterday that they mainly supported "mapper" and other load (I think) apps. One was canned for "political" reasons. He kept telling me that I did not need to worry, but I told him that without positive feedback from mgmt, you don't know what your status is. He says he'll pass that up, but I don't think it matters. The culture is
ingrained to only tell people what they need to know to do their jobs on that particular day.
I also had a PMP review that went ok, ironically the day before the layoffs. For 2010, we're rumored to be furloughed for up to 10 weeks. Not sure how my senior peer will react to that.

Spouse's job seems to be going along fine. She is catching on and they are going to let her start selling next week. We are moving her 401(k) proceeds to where the rest of our investments are to save on costs.

The dow touched 10,000 this week. It seems "too far, too fast". I'll continue with the plan to only add to retirement accounts and not taxable, for now. Since we're both still employed, we are going to spend some money on the house in 2010. Mostly on things that I have wanted for awhile, but also on some new appliances.

spouses's last day at old job...

Where we're at:

dow: 9478
s&p: 1024.38
10yr: 3.18%
VIX: 28.27
s&p P/E: 18.31

equity: 34.6
bonds: 31.9
cash: 33.5

1 yr: 1.79%

When this was written, our 1 year performance turned positive, however; the market has been down 6 of the last 7 days, so it won't last. Spouse ends a 17+ yr run at old co. today and starts new job on Monday. So today we are packing up her "office" so she can take it back and finish her day out. She is excited about her new position and it sounds like a good fit, so I am optimistic.

I am finishing week 4 of my furlough and have been fairly productive. I spent most of the week learning a new Oracle dev tool (APEX). The rumor mill says that we will learn about the next set of IT layoffs on 10/9. My gut still says I'll make it. I hope so, I'd like to spend a little money again around the house.

I found out today that her 401(k) provider takes a 1% yearly fee to administer the account. In the past they have been able to "hide" the fee in the account gains. That's been hard to do since the market has performed poorly the last two years. So we made the decision to rollover her account to another provider.

spouse found a new job

Where we're at:

dow: 9820
s&p: 1068.30
10 yr: 3.47%
s&p P/E: 19.08
VIX: 23.92


equity: 35.6
bond: 31.3
cash: 33.1

1 yr: -1.32

I'm very proud of my wife. Just 3 weeks ago she was laid off from her job of 17 years. She contacted the people she knew from her customer base, friends, and acquaintances. From this list, she received some help that ultimately led to an opportunity that seems like a good fit.

We'll still be on her insurance for another month, by then (end of Oct.) I should know about my job. My gut still "tells" me that I am safe for now, but who knows. We are hearing that overnight support will continue for the DW for awhile and there seems to be enough work for 3 internal + 2 offshore resources. 2010 will still be up and down. Hopefully if I make it through this cut, CSNA is staffed correctly. Fourth week of furlough starts on 9/28.

The market continues to run up, it still seems too far too fast, so I'm cutting back our investments except for tax deferred accounts.

down...then up

Where we're at
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55

equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9

1 yr: -2.97

The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.

Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.

it happened...

On Friday, Aug 28, spouse was notified that her job would be eliminated on 10/2. She was given the option to leave immediately or stay for 30 days to transition. She took it it quite hard, it seemed pretty unexpected. Her sales performance had been improving over the summer and she had received good comments from the division GM. They seemed to have had this in mind for awhile. They pitched having her become a "partner" and sell AT&T and division network services. They assert that she could make more money doing that. After being with this company for 17 years, she was shocked about the news. I think she wants to do the partner thing, but I would honestly rather she look for another full-time gig.

I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.

another run...waiting for a fall?

Where we're at:

dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72

equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9

1 yr -4.04%

Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.

Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.

furlough week 3 ...

Where we're at:

dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34

equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2

1 yr: -4.97%

Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.

In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.

a nice run up....

Where we're at

Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09

equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7

1 yr: -5.27

The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.

Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)

back to work....

Where we're at:

Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24

equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1

1 yr: -7.94

I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.

The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.

Off to CO...

Where we're at..

Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93

equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%

1 yr: -7.98%

I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.

To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.

more layoffs...

Where we're at

Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08

Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5

1 yr: -8.67

This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.

J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.

The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.

higher interest rates..?

where we're at:

cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5

1 yr: -11.54%

dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67

The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.

A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.

mid May 2009

Where we're at:
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%

equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36

1 yr: -13.44%

Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.

I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.

more bad news...

Where we're at:
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53

cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32

1 year: -13.29%

The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.

I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.

run up for TXT

Where we're at

Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1 yr -13%

I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.

The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.

My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.

good news..bad news

Where we are:

dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66

cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%

1 yr -14%

We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).

On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.

Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.