Where we're at:
DOW: 10466
s&p: 1120.59
10yr: 3.74%
VIX: 19.71
s&p P/E: 20.32
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr performance: 7.25%
It's Christmas Eve 2009, we're both off work today. I am wrapping up my 7th furlough week, I start getting paid again. It looks like we'll finish the year up around 8% (not including short-term). Not bad, considering the last 15 months of activity.
What worked: staying the course, continued tax deferred investing, bonds, US/Int'l equity, tax loss selling
What didn't: short term investments
We have a large amount in ST just because our job situation was and is tenuous and will remain so through 2010. We'll continue our minor kitchen remodel and plan on buying a new vehicle in 2010. If spouse remains at new job, she'll enroll in SEP IRA. I've maxed out her roth contributions for 2010 and we'll defer some into the HSA. I'm anxious about our health care for 2010 since we're in a new high deductible plan. Onward, through the fog....
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
more turbulence...
Where we're at:
dow: 10471
s&p: 1106
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 22.32
s&p P/E: 20.06
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr: 12.3%
I plowed my spot award along with some spousal inheritance into a 6 month CD called our 'car fund'. We intend to replace our 11 yr old minivan in the spring, assuming no employment surprises. However, my spouse may get one. Her boss is weak at communication, either intentionally or not and has done a poor job of communicating expectations about her continuing employment at her new job. So, she may be unemployed again soon. However, I've told her not to worry about it and just do the best she can to meet the company's expectations. I'm not sure what will happen, my instincts say it could go either way. I think it depends on the mood this guy is in on any given day.
Because of that, I'm holding off giving the MS car salesman any information about our assets for her sep IRA. I shouldn't have pushed her to open the account, usually I'm careful about that stuff. Until about 30 days ago, she seemed to be doing fine. She is doing support, sales, and A/R. If she is canned, they'll have a hole to fill and the remaining geeks can't do the day-to-day marketing grind. I have tried to lift her up and encourage her. I think if they give her some more time, she'll be successful. We'll probably know something by the end of the month.
I have stopped worrying about my job. I think I'm safe for now, but it still depends on the economy. I have one more full week and then the last of the 2009 furlough weeks and holiday shutdown. Still I think I'm where I'm supposed to be and I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010.
The market continues to be too optimistic in my opinion, so no new buying for us.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
dow: 10471
s&p: 1106
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 22.32
s&p P/E: 20.06
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr: 12.3%
I plowed my spot award along with some spousal inheritance into a 6 month CD called our 'car fund'. We intend to replace our 11 yr old minivan in the spring, assuming no employment surprises. However, my spouse may get one. Her boss is weak at communication, either intentionally or not and has done a poor job of communicating expectations about her continuing employment at her new job. So, she may be unemployed again soon. However, I've told her not to worry about it and just do the best she can to meet the company's expectations. I'm not sure what will happen, my instincts say it could go either way. I think it depends on the mood this guy is in on any given day.
Because of that, I'm holding off giving the MS car salesman any information about our assets for her sep IRA. I shouldn't have pushed her to open the account, usually I'm careful about that stuff. Until about 30 days ago, she seemed to be doing fine. She is doing support, sales, and A/R. If she is canned, they'll have a hole to fill and the remaining geeks can't do the day-to-day marketing grind. I have tried to lift her up and encourage her. I think if they give her some more time, she'll be successful. We'll probably know something by the end of the month.
I have stopped worrying about my job. I think I'm safe for now, but it still depends on the economy. I have one more full week and then the last of the 2009 furlough weeks and holiday shutdown. Still I think I'm where I'm supposed to be and I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010.
The market continues to be too optimistic in my opinion, so no new buying for us.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
Saturday, November 28, 2009
good week...
Where we're at:
Dow: 10309
s&p: 1091.49
10 yr: 3.23%
VIX: 24.74
s&p P/E: 19.86
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr 8.3%
I had my best week at CSNA prior to my 6th week of furlough. First, the project teams had a recognition lunch with members of the SLT and we received gift cards. Second, I met with my team's director and gave my data mining presentation. It went well, and she has some ideas on how to use the knowledge. During the meeting, she mentioned the possibility of training in 2010. Our lead mentioned that we would be getting a shared cell phone, so no more using personal phones for support. Finally, I received an award for my work on the project. I'm finally starting to feel like my work is being noticed and I may have escaped further layoffs.
Spouse is still nervous about her job, I think it's just "newbie" syndrome. We talked this week and she talked to a peer who told her she is doing fine. Still, we'll hedge and not replace the kitchen flooring until 2010. Still doing other things around the house though. Spouse also received an inheritance that we'll put to work in 2010.
In my opinion, the markets have still come too far, too fast, so we're not investing except for tax deferred and roth. I'm also putting money into the HSA for next year's expenses. Not sure what health coverage will be like, so more hedging on the deductable amount.
Dow: 10309
s&p: 1091.49
10 yr: 3.23%
VIX: 24.74
s&p P/E: 19.86
equity: 29
bond: 32
cash: 39
1 yr 8.3%
I had my best week at CSNA prior to my 6th week of furlough. First, the project teams had a recognition lunch with members of the SLT and we received gift cards. Second, I met with my team's director and gave my data mining presentation. It went well, and she has some ideas on how to use the knowledge. During the meeting, she mentioned the possibility of training in 2010. Our lead mentioned that we would be getting a shared cell phone, so no more using personal phones for support. Finally, I received an award for my work on the project. I'm finally starting to feel like my work is being noticed and I may have escaped further layoffs.
Spouse is still nervous about her job, I think it's just "newbie" syndrome. We talked this week and she talked to a peer who told her she is doing fine. Still, we'll hedge and not replace the kitchen flooring until 2010. Still doing other things around the house though. Spouse also received an inheritance that we'll put to work in 2010.
In my opinion, the markets have still come too far, too fast, so we're not investing except for tax deferred and roth. I'm also putting money into the HSA for next year's expenses. Not sure what health coverage will be like, so more hedging on the deductable amount.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
6th furlough week...
Where we're at:
Dow: 10226
S&P: 1093.08
10yr: 3.49%
VIX: 23.15
S&P P/E: 19.55
equity: 28.7
bond: 25.7
cash: 45.6
1 yr: -.85%
Well, I wouldn't have believed it, but we are almost back to even. Spouse's 401k has finally made it to V. I never thought it would take as long as it did. I suspect that the provider was taking interest that we could have been earning by delaying the distribution, oh well. This morning I put 50% in short and int term bonds. I'll DCA into stocks, once they back off a bit. There are no fundamental reasons for stocks to be this high and I learned my lesson from the last 5 years. She is getting enrolled in her company's SEP-IRA. It is with a full service broker (used car salesman), hopefully he won't try to shaft her.
Spouse seems to be doing well in her job, she had a sale last week after her first month and she has demos scheduled. I avoided the layoffs (for now). My job still seems to be safe. We had an "all hands" department meeting last week, that did not cover very much. It mostly rehashed the TXT earnings call. So no news about layoffs, furloughs, or raises in 2010. My gut says more furloughs, but no layoffs or raises, unless the economy gets worse or better. My S&P target is still 900 by 12/31.
As we have been discussing, we are going to spend a bit to improve some things around the house (minor kitchen remodel, termite treatment, and new hot water tank). We have been saving money the whole year to cover these expenses. We'll not be in a hurry, but will probably have it all done by Feb 2010.
Dow: 10226
S&P: 1093.08
10yr: 3.49%
VIX: 23.15
S&P P/E: 19.55
equity: 28.7
bond: 25.7
cash: 45.6
1 yr: -.85%
Well, I wouldn't have believed it, but we are almost back to even. Spouse's 401k has finally made it to V. I never thought it would take as long as it did. I suspect that the provider was taking interest that we could have been earning by delaying the distribution, oh well. This morning I put 50% in short and int term bonds. I'll DCA into stocks, once they back off a bit. There are no fundamental reasons for stocks to be this high and I learned my lesson from the last 5 years. She is getting enrolled in her company's SEP-IRA. It is with a full service broker (used car salesman), hopefully he won't try to shaft her.
Spouse seems to be doing well in her job, she had a sale last week after her first month and she has demos scheduled. I avoided the layoffs (for now). My job still seems to be safe. We had an "all hands" department meeting last week, that did not cover very much. It mostly rehashed the TXT earnings call. So no news about layoffs, furloughs, or raises in 2010. My gut says more furloughs, but no layoffs or raises, unless the economy gets worse or better. My S&P target is still 900 by 12/31.
As we have been discussing, we are going to spend a bit to improve some things around the house (minor kitchen remodel, termite treatment, and new hot water tank). We have been saving money the whole year to cover these expenses. We'll not be in a hurry, but will probably have it all done by Feb 2010.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
a little nervous...
I'm in the 5th week of my furloughs. The "noise" coming from the company sr mgmt seems to be getting less negative. They are rumbling that the bottom of the cycle is near, however the rumors are flying that more furloughs are necessary next year (upto 10 weeks). So, I put our odds of one of us being laid off at ~50%. Spouse's job seems to be going well so far, she is in her 3rd week and she is making calls and doing software demos.
Before the 2nd layoff day at my place, I had my 3rd qtr PMP review. That seemed ironic considering what could have happened the next day. But my lead tried to put me at ease. He explained that our role will be changing some what next year. We may be doing more spec gathering and writing next year, as opposed to programming. I told him that was fine with me, but my sr peer may have issues with that. He only likes doing technical work. I feel better about my chances next year since the "pup" wasn't laid off either.
Spouse and I are busy moving her 401(k) to V. I think I have a reinvestment plan set up. She is getting an inheritance in the 4th quarter that we'll also need to invest. Being on furlough is causing me to spend more time than I should looking at our investments. The "instant-on" ability of the internet is dangerous that way. When I was constantly busy at WSU and Cargill, I let our investments go on overdrive. But, I think I have made some good choices the last two years to lower our tax liability and our costs. I'm debating on what to do with the new money. I may ask for some help. Not sure who to ask.....
It feels good to spend some money around the house. Our job situation has encouraged me to buy appliances, flooring, and countertops. We also have a couple of maintenance items (hot water tank and insect treatment) that I don't need to put off any longer.
Before the 2nd layoff day at my place, I had my 3rd qtr PMP review. That seemed ironic considering what could have happened the next day. But my lead tried to put me at ease. He explained that our role will be changing some what next year. We may be doing more spec gathering and writing next year, as opposed to programming. I told him that was fine with me, but my sr peer may have issues with that. He only likes doing technical work. I feel better about my chances next year since the "pup" wasn't laid off either.
Spouse and I are busy moving her 401(k) to V. I think I have a reinvestment plan set up. She is getting an inheritance in the 4th quarter that we'll also need to invest. Being on furlough is causing me to spend more time than I should looking at our investments. The "instant-on" ability of the internet is dangerous that way. When I was constantly busy at WSU and Cargill, I let our investments go on overdrive. But, I think I have made some good choices the last two years to lower our tax liability and our costs. I'm debating on what to do with the new money. I may ask for some help. Not sure who to ask.....
It feels good to spend some money around the house. Our job situation has encouraged me to buy appliances, flooring, and countertops. We also have a couple of maintenance items (hot water tank and insect treatment) that I don't need to put off any longer.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
still employed...
Where we're at:
dow: 9995
s&p: 1087.68
10yr: 3.41%
vix: 21.43
s&p P/E: 19.45
equity: 35.8
bond: 31.3
cash: 32.9
1 yr: 8.67
As rumored, the IT layoffs (2nd round) happened on 10/9. I managed to escape getting laid off. My lead knew most of the victims and told me yesterday that they mainly supported "mapper" and other load (I think) apps. One was canned for "political" reasons. He kept telling me that I did not need to worry, but I told him that without positive feedback from mgmt, you don't know what your status is. He says he'll pass that up, but I don't think it matters. The culture is
ingrained to only tell people what they need to know to do their jobs on that particular day.
I also had a PMP review that went ok, ironically the day before the layoffs. For 2010, we're rumored to be furloughed for up to 10 weeks. Not sure how my senior peer will react to that.
Spouse's job seems to be going along fine. She is catching on and they are going to let her start selling next week. We are moving her 401(k) proceeds to where the rest of our investments are to save on costs.
The dow touched 10,000 this week. It seems "too far, too fast". I'll continue with the plan to only add to retirement accounts and not taxable, for now. Since we're both still employed, we are going to spend some money on the house in 2010. Mostly on things that I have wanted for awhile, but also on some new appliances.
dow: 9995
s&p: 1087.68
10yr: 3.41%
vix: 21.43
s&p P/E: 19.45
equity: 35.8
bond: 31.3
cash: 32.9
1 yr: 8.67
As rumored, the IT layoffs (2nd round) happened on 10/9. I managed to escape getting laid off. My lead knew most of the victims and told me yesterday that they mainly supported "mapper" and other load (I think) apps. One was canned for "political" reasons. He kept telling me that I did not need to worry, but I told him that without positive feedback from mgmt, you don't know what your status is. He says he'll pass that up, but I don't think it matters. The culture is
ingrained to only tell people what they need to know to do their jobs on that particular day.
I also had a PMP review that went ok, ironically the day before the layoffs. For 2010, we're rumored to be furloughed for up to 10 weeks. Not sure how my senior peer will react to that.
Spouse's job seems to be going along fine. She is catching on and they are going to let her start selling next week. We are moving her 401(k) proceeds to where the rest of our investments are to save on costs.
The dow touched 10,000 this week. It seems "too far, too fast". I'll continue with the plan to only add to retirement accounts and not taxable, for now. Since we're both still employed, we are going to spend some money on the house in 2010. Mostly on things that I have wanted for awhile, but also on some new appliances.
Friday, October 02, 2009
spouses's last day at old job...
Where we're at:
dow: 9478
s&p: 1024.38
10yr: 3.18%
VIX: 28.27
s&p P/E: 18.31
equity: 34.6
bonds: 31.9
cash: 33.5
1 yr: 1.79%
When this was written, our 1 year performance turned positive, however; the market has been down 6 of the last 7 days, so it won't last. Spouse ends a 17+ yr run at old co. today and starts new job on Monday. So today we are packing up her "office" so she can take it back and finish her day out. She is excited about her new position and it sounds like a good fit, so I am optimistic.
I am finishing week 4 of my furlough and have been fairly productive. I spent most of the week learning a new Oracle dev tool (APEX). The rumor mill says that we will learn about the next set of IT layoffs on 10/9. My gut still says I'll make it. I hope so, I'd like to spend a little money again around the house.
I found out today that her 401(k) provider takes a 1% yearly fee to administer the account. In the past they have been able to "hide" the fee in the account gains. That's been hard to do since the market has performed poorly the last two years. So we made the decision to rollover her account to another provider.
dow: 9478
s&p: 1024.38
10yr: 3.18%
VIX: 28.27
s&p P/E: 18.31
equity: 34.6
bonds: 31.9
cash: 33.5
1 yr: 1.79%
When this was written, our 1 year performance turned positive, however; the market has been down 6 of the last 7 days, so it won't last. Spouse ends a 17+ yr run at old co. today and starts new job on Monday. So today we are packing up her "office" so she can take it back and finish her day out. She is excited about her new position and it sounds like a good fit, so I am optimistic.
I am finishing week 4 of my furlough and have been fairly productive. I spent most of the week learning a new Oracle dev tool (APEX). The rumor mill says that we will learn about the next set of IT layoffs on 10/9. My gut still says I'll make it. I hope so, I'd like to spend a little money again around the house.
I found out today that her 401(k) provider takes a 1% yearly fee to administer the account. In the past they have been able to "hide" the fee in the account gains. That's been hard to do since the market has performed poorly the last two years. So we made the decision to rollover her account to another provider.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
spouse found a new job
Where we're at:
dow: 9820
s&p: 1068.30
10 yr: 3.47%
s&p P/E: 19.08
VIX: 23.92
equity: 35.6
bond: 31.3
cash: 33.1
1 yr: -1.32
I'm very proud of my wife. Just 3 weeks ago she was laid off from her job of 17 years. She contacted the people she knew from her customer base, friends, and acquaintances. From this list, she received some help that ultimately led to an opportunity that seems like a good fit.
We'll still be on her insurance for another month, by then (end of Oct.) I should know about my job. My gut still "tells" me that I am safe for now, but who knows. We are hearing that overnight support will continue for the DW for awhile and there seems to be enough work for 3 internal + 2 offshore resources. 2010 will still be up and down. Hopefully if I make it through this cut, CSNA is staffed correctly. Fourth week of furlough starts on 9/28.
The market continues to run up, it still seems too far too fast, so I'm cutting back our investments except for tax deferred accounts.
dow: 9820
s&p: 1068.30
10 yr: 3.47%
s&p P/E: 19.08
VIX: 23.92
equity: 35.6
bond: 31.3
cash: 33.1
1 yr: -1.32
I'm very proud of my wife. Just 3 weeks ago she was laid off from her job of 17 years. She contacted the people she knew from her customer base, friends, and acquaintances. From this list, she received some help that ultimately led to an opportunity that seems like a good fit.
We'll still be on her insurance for another month, by then (end of Oct.) I should know about my job. My gut still "tells" me that I am safe for now, but who knows. We are hearing that overnight support will continue for the DW for awhile and there seems to be enough work for 3 internal + 2 offshore resources. 2010 will still be up and down. Hopefully if I make it through this cut, CSNA is staffed correctly. Fourth week of furlough starts on 9/28.
The market continues to run up, it still seems too far too fast, so I'm cutting back our investments except for tax deferred accounts.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
down...then up
Where we're at
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55
equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9
1 yr: -2.97
The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.
Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.
Dow: 9441
S&P: 1016.40
10 yr: 3.44%
VIX: 25.26
S&P p/e: 17.55
equity: 34.4
bonds: 31.7
cash: 33.9
1 yr: -2.97
The market continued a 4 day down trend, then ticked up the last two days of the week. We continue to eek toward a positive return for 1 yr. Considering what happened in the 4th qtr of 2008, I never would have anticipated that. The 10 yr is edging down, probably because any recovery will be modest for awhile, so no need to hike rates. I'm sticking with my prediction that unemployment remains >8% through Obama's term and he goes down in flames in the 2012 election.
Spouse is getting the word out and is getting some nice leads in the local job market. I'm cautiously optimistic that she may have something by the end of the year. My team peer remains optimistic that we're safe for the 4th quarter round of layoffs. I hope he is right.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
it happened...
On Friday, Aug 28, spouse was notified that her job would be eliminated on 10/2. She was given the option to leave immediately or stay for 30 days to transition. She took it it quite hard, it seemed pretty unexpected. Her sales performance had been improving over the summer and she had received good comments from the division GM. They seemed to have had this in mind for awhile. They pitched having her become a "partner" and sell AT&T and division network services. They assert that she could make more money doing that. After being with this company for 17 years, she was shocked about the news. I think she wants to do the partner thing, but I would honestly rather she look for another full-time gig.
I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.
I am still waiting to hear about CSNA layoffs in the 4th quarter, probably by the end of Oct. I still have 4 weeks of furlough to take. I told my lead just because I needed to tell somebody.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
another run...waiting for a fall?
Where we're at:
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
dow: 9505
s&p: 1026.13
10yr: 3.56%
VIX: 25.01
s&p P/E: 17.72
equity: 34.6
bond: 31.5
cash: 33.9
1 yr -4.04%
Stocks continue to rise on marginally good news, this time existing home sales in July. I made another exchange this week. I moved some money out of stocks and into target funds for our Roth IRAs. V didn't recommend, but I've been wanting to do that. I get to take advantage of professional management and asset movement without having to do it myself. I had been waiting to dump WII anyway.
Another local aviation company canned people this week, but not CSNA (this time). Still holding my breath about our upcoming layoffs. One of my team is out on furlough this next week. We won't be together again until the first week of Oct. The DW seems to be going well. People are using it and the overnight activity is settling down. The consultants are hiding in a conference room, not sure what they are doing besides billing.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
furlough week 3 ...
Where we're at:
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
dow: 9370
s&p: 1010.48
VIX: 24.76
10 yr: 3.85
SandP P/E: 17.34
equity: 35.1
bonds: 30.7
cash: 34.2
1 yr: -4.97%
Another rise in the equity markets this two weeks, the s&p is over 1000 for the first time in ~10 months. Our asset mix is slowly moving to the mix I want. I sold some TXT this week to get down to 10% in the 401(k). I think if the VIX gets much lower I'm going to stop tracking it. I'm getting nervous about how far the equity market has come up since March. I'm not going to sell anything, but I'm going to back off the purchases a bit. The bond market seems to be forecasting a rise in rates. The 10 year rate has risen about 50 basis points in the last 4 weeks. Glad I am switching some intermediate money to short term.
In our weekly meeting, we talked about how the attitude around CSNA seems to be improving. Lead thinks no furloughs next year and possibly a merit increase. A team mate spoke to our director and, based on that, thinks our group may avoid a layoff in the 4th qtr. J is getting good reviews from work and her product knowledge and cold calling is paying off with new sales. Based on that, I'm going to ease into spending some money later in the year and replace our kitchen flooring. I'm also going to take just one day of pay for this week's furlough and carry some vacation into 2010 for next summer.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
a nice run up....
Where we're at
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Dow: 9093
S&P: 979.26
10 yr: 3.67%
VIX: 23.09
equity: 34.5
bonds: 30.8
cash: 34.7
1 yr: -5.27
The last two weeks has seen a run up in the market. Several Dow companies reported decent 2nd qtr earnings. This week TXT reports its 2nd quarter earnings, I don't think it will be pretty. The Dow reached 9,000 for the 1st time since Jan. At our last meeting with the director, she exhibited a bit of optimism, but I don't think she really has much of an idea how things are. More layoffs are scheduled for August and IT is still scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Our project went live this week, mostly successful. I was on call and I think I handled it ok. I was available when I needed to be and turned issues around quickly. J had a nice surprise with a large commission check. Because of that, I think I'll scale back my vacation pay for my next 2 weeks of furlough. After a brief drop, the 10 yr treasury has run back up. The bond market still seems to be predicting higher interest rates. I think the Fed will begin to tighten by the end of the year. Oil is still bouncing around, now it's close to $70/barrel again. I think our EWC will eventually play out, just need to give it some time. Fortunately, I am patient :)
Saturday, July 11, 2009
back to work....
Where we're at:
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Dow: 8146
S&P: 879.13
10 yr: 3.30%
VIX: 29.02
SandP P/E: 16.24
equity: 31.7
bond: 32.2
cash: 36.1
1 yr: -7.94
I head back to work on Monday after the first 2 weeks of the CSNA furlough (only 5 weeks to go). TXT decided to cancel the Columbus program this week and take a charge against 2nd quarter earnings. I'm waiting to see what kind of workforce planning e-mails are waiting for me when I return. It's funny, this week I starting having dreams about work and getting laid off. Through this whole period, since Nov, I've not had any subconscious thoughts about work. I hope it isn't a bad omen.
The consultants should be back and our project goes live next week. Hopefully, we'll be able to show our value to the uppers and keep our jobs in the fall. Interest rates (10yr) took a drop this week of about 20 basis points, not sure why. The bond market has been telegraphing inflation all year. I think because the rally is losing some steam, inflation fears must be backing off. I set up an auto exchange to put back the money I took off the table a month ago.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Off to CO...
Where we're at..
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Dow: 8438
S&P: 918.90
10yr: 3.54%
VIX: 28.93
equity: 32.5%
bonds: 31%
cash: 36.5%
1 yr: -7.98%
I started the first 2 weeks of my furlough on 6/27. I also had my mid-year PMP review. Lead was very complementary. It has been very nice working w/o the consultants around. No emergencies or shifting priorities. I hope it continues in October. I also hope I get to keep my job. My gut still says I'll make it through this one, but you never know.
To hedge, I applied at another local company, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So, we'll keep watching all expenses and income.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
more layoffs...
Where we're at
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
Dow: 8799
S&P: 946.21
10 yr: 3.79%
VIX: 28.15
SandP P/E: 16.08
Equity: 33.6
Bonds: 30.9
Cash: 35.5
1 yr: -8.67
This week another 1300 layoffs were announced, 800 next week and 500 by 8/14. The director had a rare stand-up meeting that I missed due to a lunch with DL and Marc O. My briefing from Andy was no add'l IT (yet) and another 3 weeks of furlough by 12/31. I have opted out of unemployment for now, not sure when I need to sign up. I think it will depend on when I get the other 3 weeks scheduled. This should cut employment in half from YE 2008. We'll probably be treading water until EOY 2010.
J had a scare this week. She thought she was going to get fired because of a contract problem. I think by the end of the week she felt better. We decided to continue with our vacation plans. We aren't going far, spending much, or taking many days. It will be good to get away.
The market continues to move moderately higher. I took a little money off the table to harvest a loss. I'll move the money back in 60 days. I have also begun shortening our bond investments from intermediate to limited term. Hopefully if I get laid off, it will be when the rest of the economy improves for other industries.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
higher interest rates..?
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
mid May 2009
Where we're at:
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
more bad news...
Where we're at:
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
run up for TXT
Where we're at
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
good news..bad news
Where we are:
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
Friday, March 20, 2009
two week bear rally
Where we're at
Dow: 7278
SandP: 768.54
10yr: 2.6250%
VIX: 45.89
equity: 29.1
bond: 27.2
cash: 43.7
YTD: -15.67%
The last 2 weeks have been rough, lots of group on-call, but it seems like we're starting to take control of the warehouse. AJ even seems to act like we work for him occassionally. We had another workforce update, but no new layoffs, just confirming the furloughs. I received a linked in e-mail from Koch Industries about a DBA position. It looks like the one I interviewed for 2 years ago. They seem to have a lot of turnover for those positions. I decided to not apply for WSU's job. I think I'm "supposed" to be at CSNA. at least for now.
J seems to be getting into a groove with making her calls. That's good because she'll need to stay visible to her boss. The market has had a bounce for the last two weeks, mostly due to positive news from Citigroup. The pundits think we're going back down.
3 things I'm confident about: First, higher taxes. With all the deficit spending going on, the only way to pay for it is with higher taxes. Second, higher inflation. The FED has "printed" so much money the only way to "sop" it all up in the future is to raise interest rates and restrict monetary growth. Third, there is so much money on the sidelines, that all the market needs is some good news to drive it back to 10,000.
Dow: 7278
SandP: 768.54
10yr: 2.6250%
VIX: 45.89
equity: 29.1
bond: 27.2
cash: 43.7
YTD: -15.67%
The last 2 weeks have been rough, lots of group on-call, but it seems like we're starting to take control of the warehouse. AJ even seems to act like we work for him occassionally. We had another workforce update, but no new layoffs, just confirming the furloughs. I received a linked in e-mail from Koch Industries about a DBA position. It looks like the one I interviewed for 2 years ago. They seem to have a lot of turnover for those positions. I decided to not apply for WSU's job. I think I'm "supposed" to be at CSNA. at least for now.
J seems to be getting into a groove with making her calls. That's good because she'll need to stay visible to her boss. The market has had a bounce for the last two weeks, mostly due to positive news from Citigroup. The pundits think we're going back down.
3 things I'm confident about: First, higher taxes. With all the deficit spending going on, the only way to pay for it is with higher taxes. Second, higher inflation. The FED has "printed" so much money the only way to "sop" it all up in the future is to raise interest rates and restrict monetary growth. Third, there is so much money on the sidelines, that all the market needs is some good news to drive it back to 10,000.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
are we there yet?
Where we're at
cash 45.5
bond 28
equity 26.5
performance -19%
dow 6626
s&p 683
10 year 2.88
VIX 49.33
SandP P/E: 13.14
This week J had her salary cut by 5% and her 401(k) match eliminated by her company. Quite a shock, I thought her job was safer than mine. I think they have laid off ~10 people this year so far. TXT continues to dive down, it closed at 3.75 on 3/6. I have reduced her 401(k) deferral by 4% to try and recover some net pay. I have also reduced my excess fed withholding since we'll get a refund for 2008 and our financial status will be steady or worse through 2009. Bring on 2010.
cash 45.5
bond 28
equity 26.5
performance -19%
dow 6626
s&p 683
10 year 2.88
VIX 49.33
SandP P/E: 13.14
This week J had her salary cut by 5% and her 401(k) match eliminated by her company. Quite a shock, I thought her job was safer than mine. I think they have laid off ~10 people this year so far. TXT continues to dive down, it closed at 3.75 on 3/6. I have reduced her 401(k) deferral by 4% to try and recover some net pay. I have also reduced my excess fed withholding since we'll get a refund for 2008 and our financial status will be steady or worse through 2009. Bring on 2010.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Where we're at
equity 28%
bonds 29%
cash 43%
personal 1yr -16.27
Dow 7365.67
SandP 770.05
10yr 2.7720 %
VIX 49.30
I have skated through 2 more weeks without a WARN notice. I am hearing about several IT staffers taking the VLP, still mostly people I don't know. AJ was slightly optimistic in our staff meeting. He mentioned that CSNA is starting to get orders again. He has not attended WARN training and our project is still important. The contractors are (finally) starting to trickle out the door. He also asked the newbie if Scott has coordinated any training for him yet. That seems like a good sign.
The talking heads continue to blather about what's right and wrong with the govts actions. What I know is whatever happens, we'll have higher interest rates and taxes. The rest is a crapshoot, so I need to position us for those realities. This week was depressing, market wise, but I am still employed. At least for 60 more days. Surprisingly, we get a fed tax refund this year.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
equity 28%
bonds 29%
cash 43%
personal 1yr -16.27
Dow 7365.67
SandP 770.05
10yr 2.7720 %
VIX 49.30
I have skated through 2 more weeks without a WARN notice. I am hearing about several IT staffers taking the VLP, still mostly people I don't know. AJ was slightly optimistic in our staff meeting. He mentioned that CSNA is starting to get orders again. He has not attended WARN training and our project is still important. The contractors are (finally) starting to trickle out the door. He also asked the newbie if Scott has coordinated any training for him yet. That seems like a good sign.
The talking heads continue to blather about what's right and wrong with the govts actions. What I know is whatever happens, we'll have higher interest rates and taxes. The rest is a crapshoot, so I need to position us for those realities. This week was depressing, market wise, but I am still employed. At least for 60 more days. Surprisingly, we get a fed tax refund this year.
health, family, home, job, investments...in that order
Saturday, January 31, 2009
4000 laid off
Where we stand:
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
layoff time again....
Where we stand...
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Interesting week...
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
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