Where we're at:
Dow: 16067
s and p: 1804.76
10yr: 2.75%
s and p P/E: 25.41
vix: 12.26
equity: 35
bond: 40
cash: 25
1yr: 7.8%
The upward climb continues, thank you fed. I did my own bit of tapering however, I swapped out our retirement funds from a 2025-2035 exposure to a 2015 to reduce our stock holdings. When the market corrects, (it should sometime right?) I'll rotate back to a 2020-2025. That is a cool way to rebalance without tax issues. I sold the last of my TXT a couple of weeks ago, since it's back over 30 and made a nice 25% profit. Not sure what is moving the stock, no obvious good news, CSNA may have a good quarter (the 4th usually is), but probably not good enough to move the sub into the black. Next year should be better, when the new models begin delivering. Still wish I could have gotten on with Bell.....
I'm beginning to consider IAU again, but I think it has a bit further to fall. I've also started learning about options just to expand my mind a bit.
Work is ok, another team member is exiting, but staying with the company. It's a good move for her, still 3 in 9 months seems a bit high. Although, it was clear the other two were going to be short-timers, as they have no interest in our team's focus area. I'm now trying to predict when our lead will exit, as it is clear he wants to move up and out. Since the obvious replacement is this last departure, who knows what will happen when the lead moves on.
Spouse's work is also ok, she's still having a good year, as is LOGM. She's getting ready for Cancun and warmth. I probably have one more post in me before 2014, to think about moves for next year.
Saturday, November 23, 2013
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Getting comfortable....
Where we're at:
DOW: 15,258.24
s&p: 1691.75
10 yr: 2.62
s&p P/E: 24.19
VIX: 15.46
equity: 37
bond: 32
cash: 31
YTD: 4.8%
Since my present employer is not in the turmoil my previous employer is, I don't feel the need to post as often. Sorry, if anyone is following. Over the summer, my team has had some turnover. One guy left in May, another in August. I think they just got tired / bored with the work. I think it may make my spot a bit more secure. But unlike previous, if these guys decide to can you, it will just happen. Lead says I'm doing fine, and I don't worry about the 'layoff cloud' hanging around anymore. If it happens, it happens.
Spouse is doing fine, she is off to Boston in Oct and Cancun in Jan. She should make it through the year and get her 3 year payout. Most days are ok for her, but she struggles with sitting and making phone calls. TXT announced a small fighter jet last week, designed by CSNA (so that's what was going on in the glass house for 2 years....). I hope it can get some traction, it occurred to me this week that layoff time is coming around again, typically early October. The public stuff coming out of the company is not great, still slow. Another earnings call is coming up as well. The market is waiting for any kind of positive jet number, if that comes, TXT will cross 30. I only have a few shares and with the new programs coming on-line next year, deliveries could tick up. So, I'll hang on for a bit longer, try to get low 30's for my shares.
I dumped the IAU I bought in the spring, gold seems to be in a long term downward trend, except for a few rallies when the congressional idiots rattle their swords. I also stared building an international bond position for the long term now that V has the funds. Our house repair work is complete this month, so most of the interior and exterior is in good shape. We're starting to think about staying here after the house is paid for (~3 years). We could do worse.
DOW: 15,258.24
s&p: 1691.75
10 yr: 2.62
s&p P/E: 24.19
VIX: 15.46
equity: 37
bond: 32
cash: 31
YTD: 4.8%
Since my present employer is not in the turmoil my previous employer is, I don't feel the need to post as often. Sorry, if anyone is following. Over the summer, my team has had some turnover. One guy left in May, another in August. I think they just got tired / bored with the work. I think it may make my spot a bit more secure. But unlike previous, if these guys decide to can you, it will just happen. Lead says I'm doing fine, and I don't worry about the 'layoff cloud' hanging around anymore. If it happens, it happens.
Spouse is doing fine, she is off to Boston in Oct and Cancun in Jan. She should make it through the year and get her 3 year payout. Most days are ok for her, but she struggles with sitting and making phone calls. TXT announced a small fighter jet last week, designed by CSNA (so that's what was going on in the glass house for 2 years....). I hope it can get some traction, it occurred to me this week that layoff time is coming around again, typically early October. The public stuff coming out of the company is not great, still slow. Another earnings call is coming up as well. The market is waiting for any kind of positive jet number, if that comes, TXT will cross 30. I only have a few shares and with the new programs coming on-line next year, deliveries could tick up. So, I'll hang on for a bit longer, try to get low 30's for my shares.
I dumped the IAU I bought in the spring, gold seems to be in a long term downward trend, except for a few rallies when the congressional idiots rattle their swords. I also stared building an international bond position for the long term now that V has the funds. Our house repair work is complete this month, so most of the interior and exterior is in good shape. We're starting to think about staying here after the house is paid for (~3 years). We could do worse.
Saturday, June 01, 2013
Settling in.....
Where we're at:
DJIA: 15,115.57
s&p: 1630.74
s&p PE: 23.89
VIX: 16.30
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 6.2%
After ~90 days, I'm settling in to my new role. The friend who clued me in to the job is leaving the area, it's a shame to see him take off. It still feels different, but not weird anymore. I'm hanging on to my TXT (140 shares), we'll see if the new models can spark an uptick. V started their new int'l bond funds (finally), after the target allocations are made, I'll see if we need to buy any more for a 20% stake.
I finally bought some IAU, just for insurance and just a few shares. I'd like to get it to a few thousand then forget about it. But, I'll only buy as it drops. It's almost time to buy some more REITs and int'l equities as well, they're coming off their highs, so I'll watch them. I'm also wanting to buy some KMR when it comes back some. Had a little SQL consult gig in May, to chip in some $$ and keep my SQL knowledge up. I'm due for my first review at the new place (3 months), it should go ok.
No vacation this year, our house needs repairs after a May hailstorm, plus we have medical stuff to do over the summer. Son turned 18 today, wow the last 10 years have flown by. Work support this week has made me even more determined to 'kiss' off IT at 60 and be a Y towel boy :).
DJIA: 15,115.57
s&p: 1630.74
| 10yr: 2.16 |
VIX: 16.30
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 6.2%
After ~90 days, I'm settling in to my new role. The friend who clued me in to the job is leaving the area, it's a shame to see him take off. It still feels different, but not weird anymore. I'm hanging on to my TXT (140 shares), we'll see if the new models can spark an uptick. V started their new int'l bond funds (finally), after the target allocations are made, I'll see if we need to buy any more for a 20% stake.
I finally bought some IAU, just for insurance and just a few shares. I'd like to get it to a few thousand then forget about it. But, I'll only buy as it drops. It's almost time to buy some more REITs and int'l equities as well, they're coming off their highs, so I'll watch them. I'm also wanting to buy some KMR when it comes back some. Had a little SQL consult gig in May, to chip in some $$ and keep my SQL knowledge up. I'm due for my first review at the new place (3 months), it should go ok.
No vacation this year, our house needs repairs after a May hailstorm, plus we have medical stuff to do over the summer. Son turned 18 today, wow the last 10 years have flown by. Work support this week has made me even more determined to 'kiss' off IT at 60 and be a Y towel boy :).
Saturday, April 20, 2013
TXT bulls get it wrong....
Where we're at:
Dow: 14,547.51
s&p: 1555.25
10yr: 1.70
s&p P/E: 22.82
VIX: 14.97
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 5.3%
Well...the call on 4/17 was brutal. Scott D. announced a production reduction for 2013 preceded by voluntary layoffs (about 1 a year at CSNA for the past 5 years, if you're keeping score). He finally seemed to throw in the towel again and acknowledge that buyers are waiting for a price pullback that he does not want to play. Seems like a reasonable strategy. It appears that maybe jet buyers are also waiting for new model deliveries to materialize. I sold some shares on 4/11 (30.02), glad to cash them in. I hold ~150 now. Toward the end a very interesting discussion took place around the 2015 time frame, when Bell may be ramping down the V-22.
I recall the activity in 2009 around Columbus and how those folks got their deposits back, maybe being burned once is causing some hesitation to commit. He was also asked about the dividend and replied that no increase is forthcoming. So maybe the yahoo message board will get the 'message' and stop blathering on about a dividend increase being just 'around the corner'.
Anyway, I also took this opportunity to buy some IAU, I hope to build a position over the year, if the metal continues to drop. We appear to be going into the typical spring pattern of the last few years.
New job is going ok, still feel 'dumb' but I'm coming along. Spouse seems to be getting deals done again, hopefully that will continue throughout the year.
Dow: 14,547.51
s&p: 1555.25
10yr: 1.70
s&p P/E: 22.82
VIX: 14.97
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 5.3%
Well...the call on 4/17 was brutal. Scott D. announced a production reduction for 2013 preceded by voluntary layoffs (about 1 a year at CSNA for the past 5 years, if you're keeping score). He finally seemed to throw in the towel again and acknowledge that buyers are waiting for a price pullback that he does not want to play. Seems like a reasonable strategy. It appears that maybe jet buyers are also waiting for new model deliveries to materialize. I sold some shares on 4/11 (30.02), glad to cash them in. I hold ~150 now. Toward the end a very interesting discussion took place around the 2015 time frame, when Bell may be ramping down the V-22.
I recall the activity in 2009 around Columbus and how those folks got their deposits back, maybe being burned once is causing some hesitation to commit. He was also asked about the dividend and replied that no increase is forthcoming. So maybe the yahoo message board will get the 'message' and stop blathering on about a dividend increase being just 'around the corner'.
Anyway, I also took this opportunity to buy some IAU, I hope to build a position over the year, if the metal continues to drop. We appear to be going into the typical spring pattern of the last few years.
New job is going ok, still feel 'dumb' but I'm coming along. Spouse seems to be getting deals done again, hopefully that will continue throughout the year.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
New job.....
Where we're at:
dow: 14512
s&p: 1556
10 yr: 1.91
VIX: 13.57
s&p P/E: 23.27
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
I changed jobs in March, opting for (I hope) a bit more long term security. Spouse is having a much better March, the first two months of the year were very slow for her and her company. We'll see how the year goes. So now we're adjusting to a bit less pay, new insurance coverage, and a bit less tax deferred savings, but I think it will be a good trade off. I will continue to watch TXT as I have some shares and I am interested in how the company makes out this year. S&P is still targeting a $39 price, hope they're right, but I don't see it. The biz jet predictions have been too optimistic for 3 years now. The call in April will be interesting.
Shortly before I resigned, our team's manager told us he was leaving for a new IT job with another TXT division. We all knew it was what he was going after when he came on to our team. We'll see how he does. I met the new manager shortly before I left, the team seems to be adjusting to that person, although she left for vacation the first week she was in charge. There have been some rumors of IT staff leaving in Texas, I think some were involuntary. I feel a bit sorry for my peer, it sounds like I will be replaced, but who knows how long that will take and he'll be probably on-call a bit more than before.
I have been in my new job about 2 weeks now, the people have been friendly and the work seems to be what was advertised, but we'll see....
I am waiting for a pullback, before I invest more spouse IRA money, the goal is still to empty her rollover cash into equities, but the market seems too high right now. I like everything else we own, except for some of the TXT stock :)
dow: 14512
s&p: 1556
10 yr: 1.91
VIX: 13.57
s&p P/E: 23.27
equity: 35
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
I changed jobs in March, opting for (I hope) a bit more long term security. Spouse is having a much better March, the first two months of the year were very slow for her and her company. We'll see how the year goes. So now we're adjusting to a bit less pay, new insurance coverage, and a bit less tax deferred savings, but I think it will be a good trade off. I will continue to watch TXT as I have some shares and I am interested in how the company makes out this year. S&P is still targeting a $39 price, hope they're right, but I don't see it. The biz jet predictions have been too optimistic for 3 years now. The call in April will be interesting.
Shortly before I resigned, our team's manager told us he was leaving for a new IT job with another TXT division. We all knew it was what he was going after when he came on to our team. We'll see how he does. I met the new manager shortly before I left, the team seems to be adjusting to that person, although she left for vacation the first week she was in charge. There have been some rumors of IT staff leaving in Texas, I think some were involuntary. I feel a bit sorry for my peer, it sounds like I will be replaced, but who knows how long that will take and he'll be probably on-call a bit more than before.
I have been in my new job about 2 weeks now, the people have been friendly and the work seems to be what was advertised, but we'll see....
I am waiting for a pullback, before I invest more spouse IRA money, the goal is still to empty her rollover cash into equities, but the market seems too high right now. I like everything else we own, except for some of the TXT stock :)
Sunday, March 03, 2013
March 2013.....
Where we're at:
Dow: 14089
s&p: 1518.20
10yr: 1.85%
VIX: 15.36
s&p P/E: 23.39
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
Well...the sequester happened and the world hasn't ended yet. Not sure what the impact to TXT will be. The stock took a hit on Friday, -1.32%. I remember Scott D. was pretty confident we would not get to this point during the 2012 Q3 call, wonder what he thinks now. Our group manager is off to bigger and better, it is a good move for him and deserved. Not sure what it means for our team. We've been put on notice that our application is not meeting expectations and we have to step up our performance. Spouse is having a rough start this year so far, I think the economy is just holding everyone back (what's new?).
We gave back some gains in February, the AAII index is pulling back as well. People have easily given up their bullish outlook, me I'm waiting to buy again :) I'm learning about technical analysis to take some of the emotion out of when to sell, it is kind of fun, though I still like our holdings. My goal is to invest a chunk of cash in spouse's IRA.
Dow: 14089
s&p: 1518.20
10yr: 1.85%
VIX: 15.36
s&p P/E: 23.39
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 33
1yr: 4.7%
Well...the sequester happened and the world hasn't ended yet. Not sure what the impact to TXT will be. The stock took a hit on Friday, -1.32%. I remember Scott D. was pretty confident we would not get to this point during the 2012 Q3 call, wonder what he thinks now. Our group manager is off to bigger and better, it is a good move for him and deserved. Not sure what it means for our team. We've been put on notice that our application is not meeting expectations and we have to step up our performance. Spouse is having a rough start this year so far, I think the economy is just holding everyone back (what's new?).
We gave back some gains in February, the AAII index is pulling back as well. People have easily given up their bullish outlook, me I'm waiting to buy again :) I'm learning about technical analysis to take some of the emotion out of when to sell, it is kind of fun, though I still like our holdings. My goal is to invest a chunk of cash in spouse's IRA.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Great January....
Where we're at:
Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34
1yr: 6.1%
Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines. The AAII survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell. I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase. I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.
The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop. I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore. Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets. Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions. CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...
Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34
1yr: 6.1%
Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines. The AAII survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell. I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase. I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.
The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop. I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore. Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets. Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions. CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...
Saturday, January 05, 2013
2013...recessionary?
Where we're at:
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
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