Where we're at
Dow: 8131
SandP: 869.60
10yr: 2.93%
VIX: 35.79
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr -13%
I'm still waiting for the next "workfarce planning update" to say how many will be cut loose this time. Early rumored estimates were for 2000-4000, the numbers have since dropped to 1000-2000, the latest runor is the Columbus project will be cancelled (deferred?). A number of IT personnel work on that project, but I am not of them. We should hear something soon, TXT announces 1st qtr results on 4/29. They'll probably want to announce the reductions right before or during the earnings call.
The stock has had a run up over the last two weeks due to takeover speculation. First, from lockheed or raytheon, then from a middle east consortium. I suspect that a lot of average to low performing companies will be looked at this year just because their stock prices are attractive.
My gut still says I won't get laid off (yet?), but I may be furloughed in July. It depends on who is needed for the SAP go live activity. I think I'll take available vacation upto one week of the furlough.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Saturday, April 04, 2009
good news..bad news
Where we are:
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
dow: 8017
SandP: 842.50
VIX: 39.70
10 yr: 2.89
SandP P/E: 14.66
cash 36%
bonds 33%
equity 31%
1 yr -14%
We've had a bit of a rally, up over 20% off the March lows. Now the pundits think we've avoided the collapse and capitalism may yet survive (but thrive..who knows). We moved some sideline cash into ltd term TE bonds and swapped out tot int'l stock for FTSE ex USA to get CND exposure. Think we'll move our IT TE into ltd term to hedge a bit for inflation. Our V rep called today to discuss why I hadn't implemented the fin plan. I explained my concerns (job and otherwise).
On 3/31 CSNA sent out another "workfarce planning update". The economy sucks, so more of you have to go. But, first, will any of you PLEASE leave voluntarily? My situation hasn't changed and, in fact, might be improving. We have a published go-live date and the consultants will be gone the whole month of June. So, somebody will have to be here for support and on-call work. The more I think about it, I think my team needs 3 people, but maybe not 4. So, new guy may be expendable.
Health, family, home, work, and investments...in that order.
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