Sunday, October 31, 2010

layoff drizzle...

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,118.49
S&P 500 1,183.26
10-Yr T-Note 2.61%
s&p P/E: 21.61
VIX: 21.20

equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38

1 yr: 5.0%

The energizer bunny market continues on (takes a macro licking be keeps ticking). Still over 11,000, not sure why. Lead took yet another week off, however changes appears to be headed our way. The group lead went over the IT reorg changes this week that he could talk about, but hinted that his team will change. I think that either our lead will have a change or another body will join us, or both. We should know more before I post next time.

The group lead mentioned that only production staff are scheduled for 2010 furloughs, so I may have dodged another bullet. We'll keep saving as much as we can to prepare for a down 2011. It does sound like CSNA has R&D in the pipeline for next year and 2012 though.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

dodged a bullet (part 3)....

Where we're at:

DJIA 11,062.78
S&P 500 1,176.19
10-Yr T-Note 2.58%
s&p P/E: 21.48
VIX: 19.03

equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38

1 yr: 4.2%

Another up week. The dow wants to stay above 11,000. I'm almost at break even on my total stock investment in my IRA. If I get there, I may dump 25% and keep dumping it until the market inevitably falls again. I'd like to lower my basis in that investment to ~dow 9000.

As was widely expected, CSNA WARNed about 700 people on 10/8. I was not one of them (this time). I'm still waiting anxiously for the quarterly call on 10/21. It probably won't be pretty. The tone has been downbeat since the first one in April. I'm still thinking that I'm supposed to be here, but it's hard. Two full years of bad news. The whole area has a cloud over it that probably won't lift for two more years. Spouse continues to rock in her gig. Another good commission for the 3rd quarter. No new bike, just tires for the current one. Now we're waiting for the furlough announcement.

Saturday, October 02, 2010

More Layoffs.....

Where we're at:

DJIA 10,829.68
S&P 500 1,146.24
10-Yr T-Note 2.53%
s&p P/E: 20.93
vix: 22.50

equity: 29
bond: 33
cash: 38

1 yr: 4%

What a September! The best stock market performance in decades. We had a good month and it made the quarter. However, CSNA also announced further layoffs (700+/-) on 9/21 while TXT announced a production cut the same day. Oh well...the rumors are all over the board about how many in IT (15-40) and what day (10/8 or 15). I'm betting on the 8th, it's the end of the payroll cycle. It seems like the IT reorg has been put on hold while the churn continues. My gut says I'll survive this round but my head says it could go either way.

On 9/24, a Topeka recruiter called with a DBA position. It's SQL server, but he thinks I may be a fit (we'll see). Spouse and I think we could make it work by my commuting through the school year and they move up in the summer. One step at a time. I'd like to stay at CSNA, but we have been living with this turmoil for 2 full years and it is a drain. But, we both (still) have jobs and are thankful. Even if I survive, the rumor mill says we'll have a 6-8 week furlough. Fortunately, we have planned for that to happen and we'll be fine.