Where we're at:
Dow: 13895
s&p: 1502
10yr: 1.95%
s&p P/E: 23.09
VIX: 12.89
equity: 34
bond: 32
cash: 34
1yr: 6.1%
Solid move up for equities this month, maybe some cash moving in from the sidelines. The AAII survey is scary, bullish is back ~50%, seems like a time to sell. I moved some intermediate term bond money into short term investment grade last week, as interest rates are beginning to increase. I'm investigating lower volatility alternatives for some undeployed cash in a tax deferred account. Some good ideas from various sources and books.
The TXT call was Wednesday, it went mostly as I expected, the EPS number was missed, but the market doesn't seem to care, I think it's a momentum play, who knows where it will stop. I was encouraged that the TFS wind down report will be removed going forward as the numbers aren't expected to be material anymore. Great job by TFS unloading non-captive assets. Hope those folks don't cost themselves jobs by their admirable actions. CSNA will continue to muddle through, for how much longer is anybody's guess...
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Saturday, January 05, 2013
2013...recessionary?
Where we're at:
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
Dow: 13435
s&p: 1466
10yr: 1.92
s&p P/E: 22.53
VIX: 13.83
equity: 34
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr (inc cash: 6.1%), (ex cash: 10%)
The infighting in Congress continues, but at least a deal was done. Only 2 months until the next one. Our year went well. Spouse continued her run and out earned me for the first time in 10 years. She can sell when she is motivated. For a reward, she is off to CUN for the weekend. Hopefully not getting too drunk or hooking up :) We managed to 'move the needle' a bit in 2012 and not sell any winners, that made a real difference in the end of the year. I unloaded 100 TXT at 24, to rebalance. Still looking for good investments in 2013, think I'll drink the DG koolaid.
What worked (almost everything)
US and foreign equity
(yes) bonds
REITs
What didn't:
cash (usual suspect)
Who knows when cash will pay anything again.
Not sure what is in the cards for TXT this year, I don't see a div increase, just continued cost management and capital investment. Hopefully, biz jets will will recover a bit. The 1/23 call will be interesting. I fear the layoff 'clouds' may be gathering again....
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