Where we stand:
dow 8000.86
SandP 825.88
10yr 2.85%
VIX 44.84
SandP P/E: 14.02
cash 43
bonds 27
equity 30
1 yr -15%
This week TXT-CSNA decided to increase the number of laid off staff to 4,000 company wide, 3,500 in ICT. Fortunately, I dodged it this time. I still predict more for 09-10. All around town comp is frozen for 09 and benefits are decreasing. The mood seems to be "duck and cover". Hold on to what you have and stay visible.
I'm going to focus on keeping my skills up (SQL 2005, RAC) and watching our investments and expenses. If we come through we can take what we saved and buy that new vehicle with cash. Still wondering when the consultants will be cut loose, not sure how much value they are adding.
J is really stepping it up to focus on work and less on the volunteering of the last few years. That activity will have to wait for now.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
layoff time again....
Where we stand...
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
cash 42%
bonds 28%
equity 31%
1 yr -13.36 %
dow 8281
SandP 850.12
10 yr 2.32%
VIX 46.11
Well, as I expected TXT-CSNA announced another round of layoffs. At least 2,000 this time. We're still in "hunker-down" mode. No new equity investments except retirement stuff. I had my PMP this week. It went well, I don't think they have a performance reason to lay me off. But who knows with those decisions.
I think I'll be safe because I'm on a strategic project and I think the D consultants like me well enough. Plus, we're down two FTEs since Dec. We moved the last of the DWS cash this week, so all at V.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Interesting week...
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
dow=9034
SandP=931.8o
VIX=39.19
10yr=2.39%
SandP P/E: 15.17
Where we're at:
cash=41%
bonds=26%
stock=33%
We finished 2008 at -14.38%
The DOW closed above 9,000 for the first time in 2 months (11/5). The pundits sound increasingly "bear market rally" optimistic then a retest, then a second half rally. The column commenters continue to spout chicken little-like statements that the economy will be awful until the end of time. I agree that 2009 will suck but I am optimistic that capitalism will survive.
I have been reading Andy Kessler's "How we got here". It is amazing how history continues to repeat itself, like the instructions on a shampoo bottle (find a trend, exploit the hell out of it, pop the bubble, regulate, repeat). In 2008, some upbeat happenings. We opened and fully funded our trust, so we can look after A even when we are gone.
I moved out of actively managed positions in taxable into passive investments. Even with a large drop, V health care would have nailed us with cap gains, but I switched out before that happened. V and Janus crushed us in the '00-'02 downturn with cap gains, I wanted to avoid that this year.
The revised plan came out on 12/29 and it still pushes us to go "all in" to equities. We'll pass and be contrarian, spend while the world saves. Since we have been saving while the world spends, we're entitled. I'm planning on a new vehicle, kitchen countertops, and a nice vacation (DW or cruise in 2010), unless a layoff occurs before the end of 2009. For now, only new equity money in tax deferred stuff until the DOW stays above 9,000 consistently.
I came across an interesting quote this week in US news and world reports, "Arrogance lowers IQ". How true. I'm also seeing more and more people telling me to buy gold, I feel a bubble coming on.
Health, family, home, job, investments...in that order.
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