Where we're at:
DJIA 12,217.56
S&P 500 1,257.60
10-Yr T-Note 1.87%
s&p P/E: 21.04
VIX: 23.40
equity: 30
bond: 34
cash: 36
1 year: 1.27%
Well, another year of the great recession complete. Spouse and myself remain employed. She had a great year, best for her in awhile. TXT (and CSNA) muddle through, December should have been ok. I managed to beat both my benchmark (-2.1) and the S&P (flat) in 2011.
What worked: TIPS, REITs, tax exempt bonds, high yield bonds, in other words, bonds.
What missed: non-US equities and TXT. Oh well, maybe next year.
No matter what the pundits say, everyone should own some bonds and (yes) some dividend paying stocks. I'm sure the experts will be shorting bonds (of all sorts) in 2012. Luckily, we bought most of ours in the early part of the decade. About the only thing I'd like to buy next year is some GLD, I tried in December but it went above my price.
Next year:
1. Continue my data mining and big data "homework" and position myself for a project role.
2. Make it to May and get vested.
3. Buy some GLD.
4. Look around if the market improves.
Home: Remodel the main bathroom, finally. Regardless of employment situation and the economy.
As for the national presidential election, if the repubs nominate anyone but Romney, I'm voting for the President.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Saturday, December 03, 2011
No IT layoffs in 2011....
Where we're at:
Dow: 12019.42
s&p: 1244.28
10yr: 2.04%
s&p P/E: 20.82
VIX: 27.52
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr: 5.10%
After a rough start, November recovered a bit during the last week. The US economy does not appear to be failing off a cliff, but Europe is "toying" with the world markets. Apparently Europe was closer to a Lehman event than previously thought, evidenced by the world central bank announcement on Wednesday. I'm still not sure how December will play out, but I'll be happy to collect my yearly dividends and wish this year goodbye (or good buy).
For the first time in 3 years, no IT layoffs. I think we've had enough voluntary turnover to keep our FTE count under control. Management seems to think that we have the right staff for 2012 as well. Our new director has some interesting work planned for 2012, I hope it pans out. I'm due to vest in May, we'll see how the job market looks next summer.
Dow: 12019.42
s&p: 1244.28
10yr: 2.04%
s&p P/E: 20.82
VIX: 27.52
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 33
1yr: 5.10%
After a rough start, November recovered a bit during the last week. The US economy does not appear to be failing off a cliff, but Europe is "toying" with the world markets. Apparently Europe was closer to a Lehman event than previously thought, evidenced by the world central bank announcement on Wednesday. I'm still not sure how December will play out, but I'll be happy to collect my yearly dividends and wish this year goodbye (or good buy).
For the first time in 3 years, no IT layoffs. I think we've had enough voluntary turnover to keep our FTE count under control. Management seems to think that we have the right staff for 2012 as well. Our new director has some interesting work planned for 2012, I hope it pans out. I'm due to vest in May, we'll see how the job market looks next summer.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
European roller coaster....
Where we're at:
Dow: 11796.16
s&p: 1215.65
10yr: 2.01
s&p P/E: 20.34
VIX: 32
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 3%
The Europeans seem bent on knocking down the world economy and thumbing their respective noses at the rest of the world. So, we have another weekend of wondering what will occur Sunday night. I continue to 'dribble' money into JNK and our target funds. The world goes on and we're not getting any younger.
The company continues to leak people and not replace them. Our department attrition appears to have stopped, probably for this year. But, I predict that we'll lose more people next year, especially if IT continues to perk up. Our new director is saying the right things going into the new year, we'll have to see if his ideas happen and we get a chance to work on them. Our lead continues to micro design everything, hopefully we can break that cycle some next year. Rumor is we're doing ok this quarter.
Dow: 11796.16
s&p: 1215.65
10yr: 2.01
s&p P/E: 20.34
VIX: 32
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 3%
The Europeans seem bent on knocking down the world economy and thumbing their respective noses at the rest of the world. So, we have another weekend of wondering what will occur Sunday night. I continue to 'dribble' money into JNK and our target funds. The world goes on and we're not getting any younger.
The company continues to leak people and not replace them. Our department attrition appears to have stopped, probably for this year. But, I predict that we'll lose more people next year, especially if IT continues to perk up. Our new director is saying the right things going into the new year, we'll have to see if his ideas happen and we get a chance to work on them. Our lead continues to micro design everything, hopefully we can break that cycle some next year. Rumor is we're doing ok this quarter.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
good quarter...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,808.79
S&P 500 1,238.25
10-Yr T-Note 2.20%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 31.32
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1yr: 0.9%
After 5 straight down months, October seems primed to finish up. However, it depends on what happens in Europe this upcoming week. I think Germany and France are screwing around because they know they can. I added to JNK through the month and was rewarded for it. Like the 7.5% yield, next up MLP, but still researching options. Still trying to move the needle 1% to the right.
TXT reported on 10/19, with a surprise (.45 vs .31). Still the analysts aren't going to be head faked, S&P and Citi peg the 52 week high at $21. The call was less about the macro conditions and more about how each business is doing, good to hear. Peer and lead are out this upcoming week so I'm on my own, including no offshore support on 10/26 due to a holiday. The new director seems better than we thought, I like him so far. I should be out of the woods for 2011, but still holding my breath for 2012. We'll see. The tone around the shop is more about how understaffed we are, please. I think we may be right-sized finally.
DJIA 11,808.79
S&P 500 1,238.25
10-Yr T-Note 2.20%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 31.32
equity: 30
bond: 33
cash: 37
1yr: 0.9%
After 5 straight down months, October seems primed to finish up. However, it depends on what happens in Europe this upcoming week. I think Germany and France are screwing around because they know they can. I added to JNK through the month and was rewarded for it. Like the 7.5% yield, next up MLP, but still researching options. Still trying to move the needle 1% to the right.
TXT reported on 10/19, with a surprise (.45 vs .31). Still the analysts aren't going to be head faked, S&P and Citi peg the 52 week high at $21. The call was less about the macro conditions and more about how each business is doing, good to hear. Peer and lead are out this upcoming week so I'm on my own, including no offshore support on 10/26 due to a holiday. The new director seems better than we thought, I like him so far. I should be out of the woods for 2011, but still holding my breath for 2012. We'll see. The tone around the shop is more about how understaffed we are, please. I think we may be right-sized finally.
Saturday, October 01, 2011
Glad that quarter is over....
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,913.38
S&P 500 1,131.42
10-Yr T-Note 1.92%
s&p P/E: 19.45
VIX: 42.96
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
1 yr: -1.83%
Wow, the whole market goes as Europe is going. Up, down, up, down. It seems like commodities have joined the party, gold included. Oil is going down, probably because of weaker forecasted demand (and economic growth). I bought some last month, to begin moving out of cash and bonds. I am going to build a JNK position to "move the needle". Also, moving spouse's IRA cash position to some equity and REIT (love REITS). Goal is to squeeze out another 1%.
Work is stable, new director seems ok to work for, so far. The TXT call will be on 10/19, that and NBAA will drive morale for the remaining part of the year. Still no negative workforce rumors and project work is continuing. Peer leaves for medical leave on 10/10, so I'll be solo for awhile.
DJIA 10,913.38
S&P 500 1,131.42
10-Yr T-Note 1.92%
s&p P/E: 19.45
VIX: 42.96
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
1 yr: -1.83%
Wow, the whole market goes as Europe is going. Up, down, up, down. It seems like commodities have joined the party, gold included. Oil is going down, probably because of weaker forecasted demand (and economic growth). I bought some last month, to begin moving out of cash and bonds. I am going to build a JNK position to "move the needle". Also, moving spouse's IRA cash position to some equity and REIT (love REITS). Goal is to squeeze out another 1%.
Work is stable, new director seems ok to work for, so far. The TXT call will be on 10/19, that and NBAA will drive morale for the remaining part of the year. Still no negative workforce rumors and project work is continuing. Peer leaves for medical leave on 10/10, so I'll be solo for awhile.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
quotes..(paraphrased)
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant." - Keynes
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Buffett
"Arrogance lowers IQ."
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Buffett
"Arrogance lowers IQ."
Spouse gets a raise....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,509.09
S&P 500 1,216.01
10-Yr T-Note 2.08%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 30.98
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
Spouse had her first review since she changed companies in 2009 (layoff), it went well. She received a raise. I'm very proud of how she picked herself up off the ground, dusted herself off, worked her network, and found a job without a gap in employment. I'm about 6 weeks away from feeling like I'll vest. The mood still seems ok, not great but not overly depressing. The company continues to 'leak' employees away from all areas without replacing them. It probably makes those of us who hang around, a bit more secure. Our team has a new manager, a director no less. The person we worked for is now a peer, although without any change in grade or pay (probably). We think he'll like that better.
The market had 5 up days, the consensus this week is that Europe won't disintegrate and the Euro may survive, so the 'risk trade' is back on. I managed to put some more money in junk bonds last week, slowly building a position to keep for awhile. We're also going to max out the HSA to save for future expenses. We'll probably start on our bathroom remodel in late September or early October. Dice seems to have more tech jobs, I hope that is a good sign.
DJIA 11,509.09
S&P 500 1,216.01
10-Yr T-Note 2.08%
s&p P/E: 20.9
VIX: 30.98
equity: 29
bond: 31
cash: 40
1 yr: 6%
Spouse had her first review since she changed companies in 2009 (layoff), it went well. She received a raise. I'm very proud of how she picked herself up off the ground, dusted herself off, worked her network, and found a job without a gap in employment. I'm about 6 weeks away from feeling like I'll vest. The mood still seems ok, not great but not overly depressing. The company continues to 'leak' employees away from all areas without replacing them. It probably makes those of us who hang around, a bit more secure. Our team has a new manager, a director no less. The person we worked for is now a peer, although without any change in grade or pay (probably). We think he'll like that better.
The market had 5 up days, the consensus this week is that Europe won't disintegrate and the Euro may survive, so the 'risk trade' is back on. I managed to put some more money in junk bonds last week, slowly building a position to keep for awhile. We're also going to max out the HSA to save for future expenses. We'll probably start on our bathroom remodel in late September or early October. Dice seems to have more tech jobs, I hope that is a good sign.
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Birthday....
Where we're at:
dow: 11,240.26
S&P: 1,173.97
10yr: 1.99%
VIX: 33.92
s&p P/E: 20.18
equity: 29
bonds: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4%
Work group peer announced that he needs surgery on his neck, probably in September. So, I'll be solo for a few weeks. The jerk in me thinks that this may keep me from being laid off, but who knows with this place. I think he is nervous about the surgery and what happens while he is gone. Another month-end coming up, we'll see if the numbers get any better. It really is a slow slog out of the this mess.
Another IT employee left in the last two weeks, unoffically, I think that hits my prediction of 10, which includes the TLP people who moved on. Yet we continue to post new jobs (not IT) and staff offshore people and contractors. I think the analysts are waiting for the Oct conference to decide whether we're 'for real' this year.
dow: 11,240.26
S&P: 1,173.97
10yr: 1.99%
VIX: 33.92
s&p P/E: 20.18
equity: 29
bonds: 31
cash: 39
1 yr: 4%
Work group peer announced that he needs surgery on his neck, probably in September. So, I'll be solo for a few weeks. The jerk in me thinks that this may keep me from being laid off, but who knows with this place. I think he is nervous about the surgery and what happens while he is gone. Another month-end coming up, we'll see if the numbers get any better. It really is a slow slog out of the this mess.
Another IT employee left in the last two weeks, unoffically, I think that hits my prediction of 10, which includes the TLP people who moved on. Yet we continue to post new jobs (not IT) and staff offshore people and contractors. I think the analysts are waiting for the Oct conference to decide whether we're 'for real' this year.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
shopping...
Where we're at:
DJIA 10,817.65
S&P 500 1,123.53
10-Yr T-Note 2.07%
s&p P/E: 19.39
VIX: 43.05
1yr: 2.94%
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
Another volatile 2 week period (up, then down), maybe a recession, maybe not. Maybe the Euro survives, maybe not. It seems to be in Germany and France's hand and the US debt downgrade also (from AAA to AA+). I'm not sure what this will mean for TXT, it's been getting hammered (down from 23.41 to 15.21 for the month). One of my team had a skip-level meeting with the CIO. It sounded optimistic, reorg, but no layoffs, we'll see. My lead seems to be giving me a bit more responsibility. We're putting in our DB upgrade next weekend, he seems happy with how that went and is happy that my peer and I are keeping up with the work.
Meanwhile, I'm buying again, mostly stocks and in the tax deferred area. Still trying to get our tax deferred equal or greater than our taxable. Trying to be more 'greedy' than fearful.
DJIA 10,817.65
S&P 500 1,123.53
10-Yr T-Note 2.07%
s&p P/E: 19.39
VIX: 43.05
1yr: 2.94%
equity: 28
bond: 34
cash: 38
Another volatile 2 week period (up, then down), maybe a recession, maybe not. Maybe the Euro survives, maybe not. It seems to be in Germany and France's hand and the US debt downgrade also (from AAA to AA+). I'm not sure what this will mean for TXT, it's been getting hammered (down from 23.41 to 15.21 for the month). One of my team had a skip-level meeting with the CIO. It sounded optimistic, reorg, but no layoffs, we'll see. My lead seems to be giving me a bit more responsibility. We're putting in our DB upgrade next weekend, he seems happy with how that went and is happy that my peer and I are keeping up with the work.
Meanwhile, I'm buying again, mostly stocks and in the tax deferred area. Still trying to get our tax deferred equal or greater than our taxable. Trying to be more 'greedy' than fearful.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
S&P Downgrade...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,444.61
S&P 500 1,199.38
10-Yr T-Note 2.56%
s&p P/E: 20.7
VIX: 32
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.07%
Recession fears have finally caught up with the US equity market and fears about Spain and Italy have driven down the European market. The dow has dropped about 1400 points in the last two weeks. I put some new money to work Friday in spouse's IRA. Glad I held back the 80K after the transfer. I think I'll have an opportunity over the next several months to put more to work. On 8/5 S&P downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+, probably due to the bickering during the debt ceiling debates.
This upcoming week brings another finance month end for CSNA, we'll see if we still have positive momentum going through the 3rd quarter. I had my 6 month review the last week of July, it went ok, but I will be guarded until at least November. However, we've saved enough to remodel the last room we have left, the master bathroom. So, we'll proceed with doing it.
DJIA 11,444.61
S&P 500 1,199.38
10-Yr T-Note 2.56%
s&p P/E: 20.7
VIX: 32
equity: 30
bond: 32
cash: 38
1 yr: 4.07%
Recession fears have finally caught up with the US equity market and fears about Spain and Italy have driven down the European market. The dow has dropped about 1400 points in the last two weeks. I put some new money to work Friday in spouse's IRA. Glad I held back the 80K after the transfer. I think I'll have an opportunity over the next several months to put more to work. On 8/5 S&P downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+, probably due to the bickering during the debt ceiling debates.
This upcoming week brings another finance month end for CSNA, we'll see if we still have positive momentum going through the 3rd quarter. I had my 6 month review the last week of July, it went ok, but I will be guarded until at least November. However, we've saved enough to remodel the last room we have left, the master bathroom. So, we'll proceed with doing it.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
debt ceiling countdown .....
Where we're at:
DJIAL 12,681.16
s&p: S&P 500 1,345.02
10 yr: 10-Yr T-Note 2.96%
s&p P/E: 23.77
VIX: 17.52
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 8.4%
What are these people thinking?! We can't let the U.S. default. But, we seem to be heading down that path. The market popped this week, seemingly due to positive 2nd qtr earnings. Next week will tell. The country is collectively holding its breath waiting for the outcome.
The TXT 2nd qtr call was on 7/20, it was uneventful. We reported EPS a bit better than expected so the stock popped the last part of the week. I may sell a bit more at ~30. I have my 6 month review on 7/27, the first one with the new supervisor, I think it will be fine, but I'm always nervous. CSNA continues to 'drip' people every week and not replacing them. No VLP announcement in June, so that was a good sign. Still, 50-50 to make May 2012.
DJIAL 12,681.16
s&p: S&P 500 1,345.02
10 yr: 10-Yr T-Note 2.96%
s&p P/E: 23.77
VIX: 17.52
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 8.4%
What are these people thinking?! We can't let the U.S. default. But, we seem to be heading down that path. The market popped this week, seemingly due to positive 2nd qtr earnings. Next week will tell. The country is collectively holding its breath waiting for the outcome.
The TXT 2nd qtr call was on 7/20, it was uneventful. We reported EPS a bit better than expected so the stock popped the last part of the week. I may sell a bit more at ~30. I have my 6 month review on 7/27, the first one with the new supervisor, I think it will be fine, but I'm always nervous. CSNA continues to 'drip' people every week and not replacing them. No VLP announcement in June, so that was a good sign. Still, 50-50 to make May 2012.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
4th of July 2011
Where we're at...
DJIA 12,582.77
s&p: S&P 500 1,339.67
10-Yr T-Note 3.20%
s&p P/E: 23.67
vix: 15.87
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 9.6%
The last week of June the markets stormed back, dow up ~5%. The explanation seems to be another delay for Greece declaring a default. The US economy continues to rock back and forth. Corporations raking in cash, consumers/workers hunkering down. I'm betting a down July or early August, the market has a debt ceiling raise priced in. If it's cut close or delayed, we'll have a drop.
Our team lost a member in June. He had been looking for awhile and needed to leave, he kept looking for an excuse and finally found another local job. Ironically, I applied for the same one, but was rejected. I suspect my options are limited in ICT if another layoff occurs. We've lost 7 in IT since the last layoff and I'm betting at least 3 more will walk by the end of the year (I already know of one more). I like my chances. My peer will be out for a few weeks due to surgery and I'm working to become more visible. But, we'll see. I feel much better about our spending this year, I did it right this time.
DJIA 12,582.77
s&p: S&P 500 1,339.67
10-Yr T-Note 3.20%
s&p P/E: 23.67
vix: 15.87
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 9.6%
The last week of June the markets stormed back, dow up ~5%. The explanation seems to be another delay for Greece declaring a default. The US economy continues to rock back and forth. Corporations raking in cash, consumers/workers hunkering down. I'm betting a down July or early August, the market has a debt ceiling raise priced in. If it's cut close or delayed, we'll have a drop.
Our team lost a member in June. He had been looking for awhile and needed to leave, he kept looking for an excuse and finally found another local job. Ironically, I applied for the same one, but was rejected. I suspect my options are limited in ICT if another layoff occurs. We've lost 7 in IT since the last layoff and I'm betting at least 3 more will walk by the end of the year (I already know of one more). I like my chances. My peer will be out for a few weeks due to surgery and I'm working to become more visible. But, we'll see. I feel much better about our spending this year, I did it right this time.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
The party's over....
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,951.91
S&P 500 1,270.98
10-Yr T-Note 2.97%
s&p P/E: 22.46
VIX: 18.86
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1 yr: 6%
6 straight weeks of declines following a poor employment report on 6/3 (~50,000 jobs added, 9.1% unemployment). Deja vu from 2010, I'm concerned about the 2nd qtr call in July not sure what will be said. So, we pulled back on the home improvement stuff for now. Work is steady, the SFDC stuff seems to be going well. Glad I volunteered for it. IT management is sending out skip level meeting notices for late 2011 and 2012, that seems optimistic to me. I hope I'm around in Dec. when mine is scheduled.
Since the market is pausing, I'll start dipping a toe in with new money, not much just turning on some automatic stuff in tax deferred accounts.
DJIA 11,951.91
S&P 500 1,270.98
10-Yr T-Note 2.97%
s&p P/E: 22.46
VIX: 18.86
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1 yr: 6%
6 straight weeks of declines following a poor employment report on 6/3 (~50,000 jobs added, 9.1% unemployment). Deja vu from 2010, I'm concerned about the 2nd qtr call in July not sure what will be said. So, we pulled back on the home improvement stuff for now. Work is steady, the SFDC stuff seems to be going well. Glad I volunteered for it. IT management is sending out skip level meeting notices for late 2011 and 2012, that seems optimistic to me. I hope I'm around in Dec. when mine is scheduled.
Since the market is pausing, I'll start dipping a toe in with new money, not much just turning on some automatic stuff in tax deferred accounts.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
waiting it out...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 7.1%
May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.
The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.
DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1yr: 7.1%
May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.
The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
4 yr anniversary...
Where we're at...
DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.63%
The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).
This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.
DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.63%
The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).
This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Great April....
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,810.54
S&P 500 1,363.61
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 24.1
VIX: 14.75
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
Best April since 2007 and up DOW 4% for the month. I'll continue to monitor our small caps and "ring the register" if VBK gets over $90. So far, I've pulled out ~$6,000. Car expenses in May will put off our bathroom remodel but we'll get it done over the summer. Spouse is uptight about her first company review. I think she is over reacting, but she is so intimidated by her manager. We'll see.
CSNA is continuing to trim from the top, apparently a marketing shake up happened this week. Maybe we'll hear more later. Lead is letting me participate on a new project and I get to attend a training class in May. 2 more weeks until my 4 yr, then 75% vested and 3 weeks of vacation. Still think 50% chance to make 5....
DJIA 12,810.54
S&P 500 1,363.61
10-Yr T-Note 3.30%
s&p P/E: 24.1
VIX: 14.75
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
Best April since 2007 and up DOW 4% for the month. I'll continue to monitor our small caps and "ring the register" if VBK gets over $90. So far, I've pulled out ~$6,000. Car expenses in May will put off our bathroom remodel but we'll get it done over the summer. Spouse is uptight about her first company review. I think she is over reacting, but she is so intimidated by her manager. We'll see.
CSNA is continuing to trim from the top, apparently a marketing shake up happened this week. Maybe we'll hear more later. Lead is letting me participate on a new project and I get to attend a training class in May. 2 more weeks until my 4 yr, then 75% vested and 3 weeks of vacation. Still think 50% chance to make 5....
Saturday, April 16, 2011
six sigma certified...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,341.83
S&P 500 1,319.68
10-Yr T-Note 3.41%
VIX: 15.32
s&p P/E: 23.32
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
This week I finished my six sigma cert, on time. I took my mentor to lunch yesterday to thank him for his help. He seems like he is doing ok. The TXT 1st quarter conference call is next week, it will be interesting to hear Donnelly's tone. Mentor said he was pleasantly surprised by the order numbers so far this year. Not great, but better. I'll turn my focus back on mining now that SS is done. It was interesting to hear the the MBB BI comments yesterday about the dashboards that have been rolled out. They don't seem to be being used.
I continue to 'hunker down' and stay prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. My raise kicked in this period (nice). We'll do some more work around the house, but we're not taking a vacation due to high gas prices and we want to save for a nice one next year. Cruise or fly to a coast and sit on the beach.
DJIA 12,341.83
S&P 500 1,319.68
10-Yr T-Note 3.41%
VIX: 15.32
s&p P/E: 23.32
equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: 6.3%
This week I finished my six sigma cert, on time. I took my mentor to lunch yesterday to thank him for his help. He seems like he is doing ok. The TXT 1st quarter conference call is next week, it will be interesting to hear Donnelly's tone. Mentor said he was pleasantly surprised by the order numbers so far this year. Not great, but better. I'll turn my focus back on mining now that SS is done. It was interesting to hear the the MBB BI comments yesterday about the dashboards that have been rolled out. They don't seem to be being used.
I continue to 'hunker down' and stay prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. My raise kicked in this period (nice). We'll do some more work around the house, but we're not taking a vacation due to high gas prices and we want to save for a nice one next year. Cruise or fly to a coast and sit on the beach.
Saturday, April 02, 2011
what a quarter...
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,376.72
S&P 500 1,332.41
10-Yr T-Note 3.45%
s&p P/E: 24.13
VIX: 17.40
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr: 8.1
The market is again shrugging off bad news (JPN nuke, Middle East) and concentrating on better domestic news (> job creation and slightly higher employment). It still seems like we're in the 'fed trade'. Buy risk, because risk less does not pay. I have one more IRA deposit for spouse's account (2010), then we're stopping for awhile. My plan is to make a bulk deposit into each of our accounts for cash and then wait for a drop. The 500 P/E is starting to make me nervous, not enough to sell, but definitely to buy.
I should finish my six sigma work this coming week and take my exam the following week. That will make my goal of obtaining the cert by my 4th anniversary. I'm almost comfortable enough to say I'll make it, but not quite. The layoff rumors are starting again, but the source is not reliable, so who knows. My gut says I'm safe for 2011, but who knows for 2012. It helps that there are only 2 of us.
DJIA 12,376.72
S&P 500 1,332.41
10-Yr T-Note 3.45%
s&p P/E: 24.13
VIX: 17.40
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr: 8.1
The market is again shrugging off bad news (JPN nuke, Middle East) and concentrating on better domestic news (> job creation and slightly higher employment). It still seems like we're in the 'fed trade'. Buy risk, because risk less does not pay. I have one more IRA deposit for spouse's account (2010), then we're stopping for awhile. My plan is to make a bulk deposit into each of our accounts for cash and then wait for a drop. The 500 P/E is starting to make me nervous, not enough to sell, but definitely to buy.
I should finish my six sigma work this coming week and take my exam the following week. That will make my goal of obtaining the cert by my 4th anniversary. I'm almost comfortable enough to say I'll make it, but not quite. The layoff rumors are starting again, but the source is not reliable, so who knows. My gut says I'm safe for 2011, but who knows for 2012. It helps that there are only 2 of us.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
events catching up with market...
Where we're at:
DJIA 11,858.52
S&P 500 1,279.20
10-Yr T-Note 3.28%
s&p P/E: 23.17
VIX: 24.44
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1yr: 9.7%
The middle east and the turmoil in JPN finally knocked the market back a bit, but not enough for me to buy. It still seems overvalued and time for a 5-10% pullback. So, I'll continue to wait. I'm close on my six sigma project, by the time for my next entry the project will be done and I should certify in April. I'm feeling confident about making 4 years with TXT, but still give my odds at 50/50 for 5 years.
I'm still trying to figure our manager out. When we had a lead, he seemed content to bark out orders and expect them to be followed, now he wants recommendations. I may need to have a one-on-one for clarification. Our IT shop continues to trickle staff out, most seem to head for another aerospace shop. We were told that IT would have no new head count for 3 years, but staff leaving will be replaced. In a macabre way, it's better for the rest of us.
DJIA 11,858.52
S&P 500 1,279.20
10-Yr T-Note 3.28%
s&p P/E: 23.17
VIX: 24.44
equity: 31
bond: 32
cash: 37
1yr: 9.7%
The middle east and the turmoil in JPN finally knocked the market back a bit, but not enough for me to buy. It still seems overvalued and time for a 5-10% pullback. So, I'll continue to wait. I'm close on my six sigma project, by the time for my next entry the project will be done and I should certify in April. I'm feeling confident about making 4 years with TXT, but still give my odds at 50/50 for 5 years.
I'm still trying to figure our manager out. When we had a lead, he seemed content to bark out orders and expect them to be followed, now he wants recommendations. I may need to have a one-on-one for clarification. Our IT shop continues to trickle staff out, most seem to head for another aerospace shop. We were told that IT would have no new head count for 3 years, but staff leaving will be replaced. In a macabre way, it's better for the rest of us.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
market beginning to struggle...
Status
DJIA 12,169.88
S&P 500 1,321.15
10-Yr T-Note 3.49%
s&p P/E 23.93
VIX 19.06
equity 32
bond 32
cash 38
1 yr: 9.7%
The market is beginning to show signs of struggling just as stragglers continue to buy. Between uncertainty about the future of QEx and the middle east, we're up one day and down the next. Oil is back over $100 / barrel and may choke off the US recovery. For us, I'm glad we have our bonds and cash. We've had a good run and I (still) look for a 5-10% drop. When that happens, I'll put some spouse IRA money to work. But I 'm not looking to sell any of our positions. I like all of our holdings.
Spouse's work is really moving along. CSNA is "same old, same old", more depressing aircraft stats. But, I'm hanging in there and I must be there for a reason. We may not take a vacation if gas goes over $3.50 / gallon, just like 2008. With my bike and a new rack, I'm content to drive around the area and get rides in. Still trying to make it until May and get to 4 years. I think I'll have lunch with my previous boss to get some insight on the current one. Still trying to figure him out. Six sigma work is almost done, I'm pushing towards a 3/31 goal.
DJIA 12,169.88
S&P 500 1,321.15
10-Yr T-Note 3.49%
s&p P/E 23.93
VIX 19.06
equity 32
bond 32
cash 38
1 yr: 9.7%
The market is beginning to show signs of struggling just as stragglers continue to buy. Between uncertainty about the future of QEx and the middle east, we're up one day and down the next. Oil is back over $100 / barrel and may choke off the US recovery. For us, I'm glad we have our bonds and cash. We've had a good run and I (still) look for a 5-10% drop. When that happens, I'll put some spouse IRA money to work. But I 'm not looking to sell any of our positions. I like all of our holdings.
Spouse's work is really moving along. CSNA is "same old, same old", more depressing aircraft stats. But, I'm hanging in there and I must be there for a reason. We may not take a vacation if gas goes over $3.50 / gallon, just like 2008. With my bike and a new rack, I'm content to drive around the area and get rides in. Still trying to make it until May and get to 4 years. I think I'll have lunch with my previous boss to get some insight on the current one. Still trying to figure him out. Six sigma work is almost done, I'm pushing towards a 3/31 goal.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
onward and upward..
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,391.25
S&P 500 1,343.01
10-Yr T-Note 3.59%
VIX 16.43
s&p P/E: 24.33
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 6%
The dow and s&p went up for the 3rd straight week. More and more personal investors seem to be getting off the sidelines and back into the market. That can't be a good sign. I'm still waiting for a 10-20% drop. Even TXT is having a nice run, but I'm glad I took some profits last month. I'll hold on until I get back to 15% of 401k.
I had a six sigma status meeting yesterday that went well. I'm on track to finish up my April. The weather has been cooperating and we've been able to ride this weekend. We're both getting anxious to ride more this spring. Next month, we'll pay some property taxes, buy a bike rack, and maybe a new patio sliding door for the house. Still cautiously optimistic, but waiting for more financial results from TXT.
DJIA 12,391.25
S&P 500 1,343.01
10-Yr T-Note 3.59%
VIX 16.43
s&p P/E: 24.33
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 6%
The dow and s&p went up for the 3rd straight week. More and more personal investors seem to be getting off the sidelines and back into the market. That can't be a good sign. I'm still waiting for a 10-20% drop. Even TXT is having a nice run, but I'm glad I took some profits last month. I'll hold on until I get back to 15% of 401k.
I had a six sigma status meeting yesterday that went well. I'm on track to finish up my April. The weather has been cooperating and we've been able to ride this weekend. We're both getting anxious to ride more this spring. Next month, we'll pay some property taxes, buy a bike rack, and maybe a new patio sliding door for the house. Still cautiously optimistic, but waiting for more financial results from TXT.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
dow 12,000....
Where we're at:
DJIA 12,092.15
S&P 500 1,310.87
10-Yr T-Note 3.65%
VIX: 15.93
s&p P/E: 24
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 5.82%
The little market that could. All the pundits predict a correction, but the market is having none of it. Our US stocks continue to exceed my expectations and frustrate me from buying more, bonds are finally reacting to the Fed and economic growth expectations, the 10 year lept up to 3.65. Non US is behind but not by much, YTD +2.7 vs +4.25 for US.
Work is going along, the 4th quarter TXT call was cautiously optimistic, like last year. The rumor is all of the production furloughs have been cancelled, but I don't trust the source, so we'll see. A more reliable source says no salary furloughs in 2011. I'm becoming more optimistic that I'll make 4 years, but still not sure about 5. Spouse is doing well, she finished 2010 with a bang and seems to be getting the trust of her mgmt. Our taxes aren't as bad as I thought, the HSA really helps (a nice benefit from TXT). No refund, but with low liability, it's like a refund. However, I'd rather pay more and earn more interest on our cash. Maybe someday....
DJIA 12,092.15
S&P 500 1,310.87
10-Yr T-Note 3.65%
VIX: 15.93
s&p P/E: 24
equity: 32
bond: 31
cash: 37
1 yr 5.82%
The little market that could. All the pundits predict a correction, but the market is having none of it. Our US stocks continue to exceed my expectations and frustrate me from buying more, bonds are finally reacting to the Fed and economic growth expectations, the 10 year lept up to 3.65. Non US is behind but not by much, YTD +2.7 vs +4.25 for US.
Work is going along, the 4th quarter TXT call was cautiously optimistic, like last year. The rumor is all of the production furloughs have been cancelled, but I don't trust the source, so we'll see. A more reliable source says no salary furloughs in 2011. I'm becoming more optimistic that I'll make 4 years, but still not sure about 5. Spouse is doing well, she finished 2010 with a bang and seems to be getting the trust of her mgmt. Our taxes aren't as bad as I thought, the HSA really helps (a nice benefit from TXT). No refund, but with low liability, it's like a refund. However, I'd rather pay more and earn more interest on our cash. Maybe someday....
Monday, January 17, 2011
2010 PMP...
Where we're at
DJIA 11,787.38
s&p 1293.24
10yr 3.33%
VIX 15:46
s&p P/E 23.68
equity 31
bind 31
cash 38
1 yr 5%
Last week I had my last review with my previous supervisor. It went well, he had positive comments and recommended that I be promoted, I don't see that happening, but I'm feeling a bit more confident about making my 4 yr anniversary (May). If I make it, I'll be 25% more vested and start earning 3 weeks of time off. He met with me and my peer this week and mentioned a positive Dec and he does not foresee salary furloughs for 2011. I feel more confident than I have for 3 years. Hopefully, it won't be like last year. I'll take it slow financially until after the first two calls in Jan and April.
We got the 'green light' to begin a upgrade to 11g, that should help my marketability in case the ax does fall. I'll continue to work on data mining, but at a slower pace. I've reached the end of what I can absorb without more project work or in class training. I'll also finish my six sigma project and my cert this year. This year we'll remodel our main bathroom and save for new exterior windows. We're also thinking about a nice vacation.
DJIA 11,787.38
s&p 1293.24
10yr 3.33%
VIX 15:46
s&p P/E 23.68
equity 31
bind 31
cash 38
1 yr 5%
Last week I had my last review with my previous supervisor. It went well, he had positive comments and recommended that I be promoted, I don't see that happening, but I'm feeling a bit more confident about making my 4 yr anniversary (May). If I make it, I'll be 25% more vested and start earning 3 weeks of time off. He met with me and my peer this week and mentioned a positive Dec and he does not foresee salary furloughs for 2011. I feel more confident than I have for 3 years. Hopefully, it won't be like last year. I'll take it slow financially until after the first two calls in Jan and April.
We got the 'green light' to begin a upgrade to 11g, that should help my marketability in case the ax does fall. I'll continue to work on data mining, but at a slower pace. I've reached the end of what I can absorb without more project work or in class training. I'll also finish my six sigma project and my cert this year. This year we'll remodel our main bathroom and save for new exterior windows. We're also thinking about a nice vacation.
Saturday, January 01, 2011
Goodbye 2010...
Wow what a 4 month period, the s&p started September at 1049.72 and finished the year at 1257.64 up 208 points. The jump put a damper on my investment plans. I wanted to allocate spouse's rollover money into stocks, but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I sense some bull market capitulation, so I'll hold off until a correction. We have gone almost straight up for 4 months, so it's due.
What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.
What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.
2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.
Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed
Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.
What worked:
REIT investment in early summer, up over 10% since investment.
US small caps up over 20% for the year, I 'rang the register' and took some off the table in Dec.
US Bonds, until Nov 2010 after QE2 started.
US equities, early and late 2010.
What disappointed:
cash
EWC, sold out position in Nov 2010 at 30. Small loss of ~$350. I'm waiting to regain CND exposure through VGTSX when it's reconfigured in Q111.
2011 plans:
Finish 2010 IRA investments.
Invest 2011 IRA allocations.
Invest spouse's rollover dollars in US and foreign equities.
Continue investing in tax deferred accounts.
Move some BND money to JNK early in 2011.
Establish a position in sm cap FTSE exUS in taxable account.
Begin investing in HSA account.
Goals:
Finish six sigma cert
Continue showing value in data mining
Implement Oracle 11.2
Stay employed
Purchases:
Main bathroom remodel
Summer vacation
Purchase an android tablet media player for fun and education about O/S.
Save for new exterior windows in 2012.
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