Sunday, May 29, 2011

waiting it out...

Where we're at:

DJIA 12,441.58
S&P 500 1,331.10
10-Yr T-Note 3.06%
s&p P/E: 23.52
VIX: 13.70

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1yr: 7.1%

May has given us the first down month since Nov 2010. The market seems to be waiting for the Fed to back out of QE2. The economy still seems sluggish, as first quarter GDP (revision) came in at 1.8%. Vanguard lowered minimums on several funds including one I have been watching, so I relented and invested some of spouse's rollover cash into it and started an auto plan. I need to put the money to work for her.

The rumors continue to fly that we're in for more layoffs, still just rumors and I don't have any specific source. CSNA had some good news on Friday, a contract with the Air Force was announced. People seem extra jittery because Pelton is gone. It seems like the right move to me. But we'll see.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

4 yr anniversary...

Where we're at...

DJIA 12,595.75
S&P 500 1,337.77
10-Yr T-Note 3.19%
s&p P/E: 23.64
VIX: 17.07

equity: 32
bond: 32
cash: 36

1 yr: 6.63%

The stock market seems to be following the commodities market. Several down days in a row, followed by an up and down day this week. Oil and precious metals are not sure where to go and the USD seems to be strengthening (slightly). The economy is holding 'its breath' waiting for the Fed to end QE2 and decide where interest rates are going. I continue to like what we own and the sell decisions that I have made this year so far. I may sell some additional small caps if VBK reaches 90. We're still down about a 10% allocation in equities since 2008 and after we moved spouse's old 401k to rollover IRA (2009).

This week I turned over 4 years with TXT, so I'm 75% vested and accrue 3 weeks of vacation. Plan is to continue to keep a lid on discretionary spend until at least after the 2nd quarter call, then depending on 2012 plans open up or tighten further. This year is setting up like a repeat of 2010. Optimism, pessimism, layoffs. The corporate word is still profitable in late 2011, we'll see.