June 2016

Where we're at:

S&P: 2099
Dow: 17807
10yr: 1.7%
S&P P/E: 26.22
VIX: 13.47

Equity: 36
Bond: 52
Cash: 11

1yr: 0.1%

Another curve ball for the Fed, low number of jobs created in May, so probably no rate hike in June, maybe all of the summer.  So, equity-heads can continue touting a bull.  Our reits continue to hang in there, best performer for 2016 so far.  Our local economy had a bit of good news last week, a large employer announced that it is staying in the area.  It seemed like people breathed a sigh of relief, but a number of people are barking that any incentives are not worth the cost (whatever they are).

We continue to fund our retirement accounts (50/50), with some internationals and short term TIPs.  I still look at the dividend payers, but they seem expensive now like everything else.  I'm hoping that this summer will the calmest work-wise since 2012.  There has been job turmoil for us each of the last 3 years, including spouse leaving LOGM.  I may get a MNPLS trip in July.

Glad our house is paid for, will have some expenses this summer (A/C, sump pump, maybe our east coast trip).

April 2016

Where we're at:

Dow: 17773.64
S&P: 2065
VIX: 15.70
10 yr: 1.82%
S&P P/E: 25.92

equity: 36.3
bond: 54.2
cash: 9

1 yr: -0.2%

The month started off strong, but ended with a thud.  However, my 1 yr loss is narrowing.  I have turned around my FTSE ex-US loss to a slight gain.  US stocks and most bonds are still positive for us.  REITS are all over the board.  The economic news continues to be bad, especially for manufacturing.  TXT reported and had a slight increase in jet deliveries in the 1st quarter, with backlog holding steady.  I still enjoy the quarterly reports.  I miss my friends who passed away in February.  

Work seems steady for both of us.  I had an ok session with my supervisor and she seems engaged with my work, but who knows.  I feel good going into the new FY.  Spouse is having an up and down year, seems normal for sales.  I volunteered to demo a new MS product to the team, still trying to stay visible.  Sometime in May, the local management should announce whether the office will stay or go.  My bet is it goes.

Mar 29 2016

Where we're at:

Dow: 17633.11
S&P: 2055
VIX: 13.82
10 yr: 1.81%
S&P P/E: 25.95

equity: 36.7
bond: 55
cash: 8.3

1 yr: -3.3%

The market has retraced itself and is now flat for 2016.  Our REITs and bonds are doing well, Larger US equities have recovered, especially dividend payers.  I can't get over thinking that they are overpriced right now.  Lots of opinions on buying the same companies (P&G, JNJ, T, VZ, REITs....).  It reminds me of 2000, when everyone was a stock expert and Tyco, Enron, Worldcom and others were at the top of everyone's list, until they weren't......

Personally, I like internationals.  They pay solid dividends and the MSCI P/E is in the mid teens, not the low 20's, but we'll see.  I bought some in Jan and early Feb.  Company continues to act strange, layoff and relocation rumors now.  I don't worry like I did at TXT, but you never know.  Spouse is hearing some noise too, especially if her numbers don't improve.  Who knows maybe our son will support us starting in the summer.  Taking a day trip to KC this weekend.

Finished a consult gig this week, nice pay for a few hours of DBA work.  I'd like to do a bit more side stuff, just to keep that skill current.  Had a good trip to MS data summit.  Power BI is gaining traction and could be a nice tool for the box.

Feb 2016

Where we're at:

Dow: 16639
s&p: 1948
10 yr: 1.79%
VIX: 19.81
CAPE s&p P/E: 24.62

1yr: -1.6%

mix:
equity: 36
bond: 56
cash: 8

Volatility continues to reign.  I'm learning about DCF, not so much to pick stocks, but to understand over and under valuation which I think will make me a 'smarter' investor.  I'm trying to understand how to value a company either as an equity buy or as an entrepreneur.  We're down a bit, but not bad considering.  The bonds and CDs help me sleep so I can stay in with the equities.  I'm also exchanging off some int'l in tax-deferred and buying it in taxable, to get the foreign tax credit next year.

Thinking about buying some dividend stocks, but everyone is doing that and they also seem overvalued.  So, I like my int'l trade right now, undervalued and decent dividends.  A peer from KC is asking me to talk to his company about an opportunity, maybe a possibility, but with our house sold it would take a lot to get me to move.  Have an open contract job, but the client can't decide whether to pull the trigger.  I am tiring of data science on-line courses, so I think I'll dive back into SQL server, since it's more popular here.

I had some bad news this week, a good friend from TXT was found dead in his car last week from a heart attack.  We hadn't spoken in about 6 months.  I knew he was under a bit of stress with his job, I wonder if he was over working?  It reinforces my '5 year IT plan', to basically get out of this career before I smell like a dead fish.

Company X first post

So, I haven't posted much since leaving TXT.  Company X has also been a roller coaster, almost since I started in 2013, the turnover express has run.  My team was as high as 7, in 2014 it was down to 4, now it's me plus offshore support.  Last spring and summer, I was concerned about a layoff, in June the layoff fire had gasoline poured on it.  But, a peer and I survived, I thought then and now that we were spared because the central IT team could not support our BUs.

Then in the middle of summer, a BU spinoff was announced and my peer and other IT staff were sent with them, so down to me.  I support the direction of the central IT group, but it's hard.  I'm stuck in the middle, trying to support their objectives while listening to local people complain about service.  I tell myself that I'm happy, yet I have applied for 6 other external and internal positions in the last year.  I have had a couple of interviews, and several of the positions were closed and not filled.  But two surprises lately, a training trip to Seattle and a raise, amazing.  Now I may have an opportunity to move to a BU as a data analyst.  We'll see how that goes.  

I have low expectations and try to stay on the radar in a positive way, but I think I come to work everyday expecting my badge to not open a door.

2015 and hello 2016

Where we're at:

Dow: 16466
s&p: 1940
10 yr: 1.93%
VIX: 19.20
CAPE s&p P/E: 24.56

1yr: 0.0%

mix:
equity: 36
bond: 54
cash: 10

It's been awhile, so I thought I would recap the year and what I've done so far in 2016.  2015 for us was 'flat', the EOY cap gains and dividends in our tax deferred investments brought us to even, so I beat my benchmark for a 3rd year (ivy portfolio + commodities).  When commodities come back, I'll probably be behind again.  Not much worked last year, US, Int'l, bonds, REITs.  I think the only thing that worked somewhat were muni bonds.  Love them.  The fed being wishy-washy on interest rates didn't help.  I have begun researching values in dividend stocks now that a bit of froth is gone, still with a P/E above 20, there is still quite a bit of it.

In an effort to keep some 'dry powder' and move the needle on our cash, I began opening a lot of CDs, mostly brokered ones to avoid the hassle of running around the web yield shopping.  That should give us a bit more cash flow.  I have sold all of our int'ls in my IRA and repurchased them in our taxable to take advantage of the foreign tax credit and lower my cost basis.  I do plan on adding to our US large caps, mostly dividend achievers throughout the year.

Expenses: new AC?, vacation in the fall to east coast, new bed?

Happy dance...paid off home in December.