higher interest rates..?
where we're at:
cash: 35
bonds: 31.5
equity: 33.5
1 yr: -11.54%
dow: 8500
s&p: 919.14
10yr: 3.465%
VIX: 31.67
The 10yr rate appears to be advancing, so I'll lock in a ST gain (lt loss) on int-TE and exchange to ltd term-TE. I'm still betting on higher inflation and taxes LT. Int'l stocks seem to be doing better (especially emerging) over the near term. Oil and gas have been going up, which has helped EWC. J seems to be over the MD issue. I'll make it up on her birthday.
A completed 7th grade and is back in YESS. I know there is plan for him, we'll keep looking and help him find it. The latest rumor is lower deliveries in 2010 and more IT layoffs. I still think I'll survive through 2009, but who knows for 2010. My plan is to opt out of furlough unemployment comp in 2009 and evaluate it for 2010. If I'm laid off, I'll be glad I passed. We decided to go to CO, we're both employed and have the money. The trip is short and won't cost very much. It's the right call.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Saturday, May 16, 2009
mid May 2009
Where we're at:
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Dow: 8268
s&p: 882.88
VIX: 33.12
10 yr: 3.13%
equity: 32%
bonds: 32
cash: 36
1 yr: -13.44%
Not much has changed, I'm stepping up my networking just in case of a layoff. I have two recommendations on linked in and I'm continuing to keep in touch with past colleagues. I screwed up last Sunday by not getting J a nice gift for MD. A and I sent her an e-card. I won't make that mistake again. I've never been through this before, the layoffs and furloughs. It's hard not worrying about what I can't control, so I over control what I can. I'm going to try to take it down a notch. I found out that WSU finally filled their open DBA spot so no more obsessing about that. I know CSNA is where I need to be now so I'll "tough" it out one way or the other. I crossed over 2 years this week, so now I'm 25% vested in 401k. The active development on EDW is winding down, the consultants will be gone for a month starting June. Their presence will go down dramatically after go-live until Oct when they are out.
I think J understands but it's annoying her, she doesn't seem to understand what I'm going through. Tonight we're going to have a nice dinner and I'll open up and explain it to her. Maybe it will help. We have the first two weeks of the furlough locked in, we have to schedule the next two for Sept/Oct. I have a full sheet of things to do for the whole 4 weeks (or maybe 6 if I include the winter break). At least it's almost summer, I'm always happier when I can be outside.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
more bad news...
Where we're at:
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
dow: 8212
s&p: 87.52
vix: 35.30
10 yr: 3.15
SandP P/E: 15.53
cash: 36%
bonds: 32
equity: 32
1 year: -13.29%
The TXT 1st qtr earnings call was this week (4/29), the news was not good. Revenues and profits were both down, continued aircraft order cancellations and deferrals. So....more layoffs and the furlough was increased from 2-4 weeks. IT will feel the layoffs in the 4th qtr. But, the CIO answered one of my submitted questions about project work from 09-10. SAP/EDW was mentioned in both years. My gut still says I'll make it through, but I think newbie will not.
I seem to be doing the right things, staying on call, trying to be upbeat, helping the contractors and AJ when asked, turning over my work on a timely basis, and I still get invited to meetings. Sometimes my opinion is even asked for. I am choosing to look at the furlough as a sabatical and filling the time with home maintenance, IT training, and working out.
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